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Old 05-23-2018, 10:48 PM   #1
GuitarDean
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Shoving with OESFD

This hand happened last night, and I’m confident I played it correctly, however it made me think of a similar but more ambiguous scenario:

1/2 game, Hero has about $700 on the button, V1 in MP has hero covered, and V2 in the CO just sat down with $250.

No info on V2, but my feel for V1 is a decently skilled LAG. Seen him open light with K-Jo and small SCs in EP, and correctly fold TPTK (AQ and he paired the Q) on the flop against another TAG reg who showed a set.

OTTH:

V1 opens to $12, V2 calls, and given how light I’ve seen V1 open, I decide to go for a squeeze play OTB with 7-8dd and 3-bet to $50.

V1 calls, V2 folds. Pot size $115. Flop comes 6d 9h Ad.

V1 checks, I bet $60, V1 check-raises to $200, pot size now $375. I think V1 has a strong ace, or is semi-bluffing against a cbet with something like 2 broadway diamonds. Given that the Ad is on the board though, there is no chance he has an ace with a higher flush draw, so the only likely hand that crushes me is 9-Tdd. I shove with over 50% equity in the pot and the chance to get him to fold up to A-Q. Villain quickly folds.

My question is this:

Let’s say the pre-flop action is identical but the board comes 6d 9d Ax instead. V1 now crushes me with any suited diamond A, and there are 8 combos of those instead of the singular 9-Tdd.

I’m not nearly as thrilled to be check-raised in the 2nd scenario, certainly not 3-betting all-in. Folding feels way too nitty, but calling doesn’t feel great either. We likely face a large turn bet and won’t have the odds to play only for the 8 straight and straight flush outs, yet I’m not thrilled to be putting in 350BBs if we hit just the flush.

Should I just take the free card OTF and not allow the possibility of a x/r? The problem with that though is I let hands like non-diamond aces and 8-9, 9-T, TT take the lead OTT when we miss 70% of the time, and we’ve also made it obvious that we don’t have the A.

Your thoughts on the 2nd scenario?
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:03 PM   #2
Koss
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

You're spot on in that having the Ace be one of the diamonds is a much better scenario all around, even though he should be folding some of the weaker suited aces against your 3!, and 4-betting at least AKdd.

I don't necessarily think it would change my calculus on the flop though. We aren't getting x/r all that often on this flop (lol what did this dude even have?). A lot of his range is going to be PP's and Ax hands that we can try to barrel off.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:30 PM   #3
russianbear13
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

Well thought out.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:54 PM   #4
GuitarDean
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
lol what did this dude even have?
Don't know for sure. I don't think it was a lol-live holding though!

My best guess is he had a non-diamond suited ace and was trying to get me to fold a stronger A that doesn't want to play for 350 BB stacks. His x/r certainly had some fold equity. Perhaps 2 suited broadways are possible too?
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Old 05-24-2018, 12:13 AM   #5
PFunkaliscious
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

go 60 or 65 pre.

and the flop..........for the love of God, at least 90.

you smashed that flop so hard, you HAVE to bet it.

as played, shoving all day over the 200. You will be suprised how often V lays this down.
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Old 05-24-2018, 12:38 AM   #6
browni3141
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

Well-played, IMO.
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Old 05-24-2018, 02:00 AM   #7
hyperknit
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

I like to cbet larger here as a default with my entire betting range. That being said, I think there is merit to cbetting smaller as a default vs a play who we expect to c/r us at a high frequency.


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Old 05-24-2018, 08:14 AM   #8
AllTheCheese
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

Standard, well played. Even in the second scenario, A96, you should b/3b. There aren't that many combos of AX (eight), and they should at least sometimes play as a call. You also have decent equity against those hands (30%). It is especially necessary to b/3b if your opponent can be ******edly c/ring an Ace to "see where he's at." Making your opponent fold 44% equity with AQ when they're getting better than 2:1 is a huge win.
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Old 05-24-2018, 08:37 AM   #9
MikeStarr
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

Well played and I would play the 2nd flop the same way. The odds that he also has diamonds are too low to worry about once the pot is this big.

PS...your CBet size is fine.
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Old 05-24-2018, 09:37 AM   #10
robert_utk
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

A tricky vil might flat the second scenario with Axdd so keep that in mind when turn is a diamond.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:26 AM   #11
shorn7
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Re: Shoving with OESFD

Definitely agree on the second scenario for the reasons you state. However, I am not as certain on the first scenario due to pot size and remaining $$ in terms of how much FE you really have versus his range.

Once you shove, you offer $1,003/$488 or slightly better than 2-1 odds for V to call. Many V's will deduce that you will not do this very often with sets as you likely would just call the $200 and hope to shove a blank turn so you DON'T get V to fold. Therefore, a good V with AK here (especially with K) might get sticky.

Now given you have so much equity, you might not care but this is definitely something to keep an eye on when your draw is 12 outs or less.

Overall though, I like the thinking approach.
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