2/5 Aria

Table has been pretty good, with a mixture of tourists and beatable grinders. Hero bought in for $700 and now has $1550, thanks to fairly standard hands and play. Nothing special.

Villain is a very deliberate, young, Asian guy. He tanks every decision. He also seems fairly tight and might see MUTB at times.

In a previous hand with Villain, Hero had opened in MP with A8s, Villain called in SB. I bet half pot on a flop of AJ6, two to a flush (not mine). Villain tank-called. Turn was an off-suit 2. Check/check.

River was another 6, no flush. Villain checks. I over-bet the pot, trying to get him to fold a chop. Villain tanks again, flashes an Ace, and folds.

Villain seems to be getting a little frustrated - he's opening a lot, c-betting a lot, but then giving up to any pressure. His standard open is $20, but tends to open $25 or $30 with hands like 88-QQ.

THE HAND:

Hero OTB $1550
Villain UTG+1 covers

Villain opens to $25. Hero calls with 87. HU to the flop.

Flop: ($82)

K64

Villains bets $45.
Hero calls.

I thought about raising, because Villain betting smallish like this leads me to believe he doesn't have a K. Maybe a smaller pocket pair...but let's see what he does on the turn... So I just called. Thoughts?

Turn: ($172)

T

Villain slooooowly bets $85.

Another smallish bet. I really think I can get this guy off the hand, plus, I've improved to a double-gutter, so I raise to $265. Thoughts? Take the cheap price to see if any of my draws come in?

Villain tanks for a long time...like 4 minutes. He looks frustrated. Like he's going to fold, just like he's done hand after hand when faced with pressure.

But finally, he raises to $525.

Interesting. Odd bet size. Again...just take the good price I'm getting? Or does anyone argue for a push? Maybe he's inducing here?? What does Villain have? What's his range? Just calling has its merits, but Villain isn't the type to pay off on the river when I hit. He will check-fold every club that hits...he might pay off a non-club 5 or 9, though. But if it's a diamond, he still won't pay it off.

What to do?

I think your turn raise doesn't represent much of hand, except maybe the draw you're holding. You'd have 3 bet a small set on the flop, and 3bet TT pre. You never have KK there, so the only hand you're representing is KT, an its an unlikely one.

after his raise to 525, you have 260 to call a pot of 782, which gives you 3:1 pot odds.
You are priced-in to call with your 15 outs.

AP, Call. If you were shorter it would be a different story, but you are 300bb deep. unless you're ready to lose all of it on a draw, you still have plenty of space to fold if you don't hit, take a nice pot that you juiced on the turn if you do, and even turn your hand into a bluff if a non-paired diamond comes and V checks.

something doesn't appear right, he opens $25, u call, it's $82 HU to the flop?

Don't shove ever. I've never seen someone bet the turn, be raised, re-raise himself then fold. Your FE is nil.

My range for him is sets, maybe AA, AdKd, KT and maybe a few combo draws (QcJC, QdJd, etc.) Think we can profitably call against that range. Your IO can't be so bad, and if he will check-fold and card making a flush we can shove a diamond if we miss.

Thats a good point.

If u say hes fairly tight and giving up easy what makes u think he dosent have the goods here? If hes a professional I doubt hes actually as frustrated as you think.

As played your getting too good a price to fold but shoving seems bad. So call.

Given your read though why not toss out a small flop raise? You get the same info as played but at a cheaper price. And you have more options on the turn in position.

lol dammit...should be $57. I thought another player had called at first, but I edited it out when I realized I was wrong. Forgot the amount. sorry!

Good points, all...thanks.

I don't like shoving at all, V's 3! kinda sets off warning bells and makes me want to disregard physical tells. If V is raising our rr then I'm not confident that he's as weak as we thought. Just flat...

So are the other amounts postflop accurate?

If so, his flop bet is indicative of strength, not weakness.
And that confirms that it is most definitely not a shove. if you redo the math with accurate amounts, you'll find out your pot odds on the turn are smaller.

just call.

100% call. Villain has TPTK or better. No one ever folds after a reraise at low stakes. With zero FE and 30% equity, easy call getting 3.5:1 in position.

I like the turn raise because you're so deep. I think you have decent FE. It's obvious he's not folding, so now you have to play the direct odds.

Never raising. It looks like V turned a set. Just call and GII if you bink and the board does not pair.

It took him four minutes to raise your turn bet? Was he getting extra camera time or something?

Villain has shown ability to be capable of folding. Villain is known to be tight. Villain double barrels a board which is good for his range. Villain offers us HUGE implied odds on our straight outs, and some small amount of implied odds on our flush (and some RIO) vs Axcc (which means our pair outs are good). We are in position and can control how much we invest on the river.

What is the only thing that would suck about this hand? Pricing ourselves out of our monster draw and SUPER amazing scenario. So let's raise with our 0 FE and price ourselves out IP.

Then villain even puts on his best hollywood and reraises.

Villain is inducing? Give me a break. You just said a nitty passive villain 3b you OTT and you are arguing he's inducing and we have FE by shoving.

This is a set (likely KK, maybe TT) or possibly big clubs that dominate you ATcc, AJcc etc. We have no FE and huge implied odds to get paid on straight outs. Raising turn has few merits and calling has a lot.

If he's going to fold on a diamond river, I don't see how you can even consider shoving here?

The others are correct....just off by the first additional $25.

Call turn, as played call.

He's just not folding as many rivers as you think after 3betting the turn (and x/f all the other turns)

Call and bink the river. If you brick and he checks then might think betting. If he fires brick river just fold.

Raise flop, call as played IMO

lol Man, I'm an idiot.

results:

Wow what a nit. You flat on the button preflop and he "hems and haws" with the second nuts on the turn. He deserves to have you bink the club. Also, if you had the read that he was a huge nit, it generally makes sense to play super aggro against him when the pot gets big since he'll wet himself and fold way too often. It's just probably not a good idea to be aggro once he's made it clear he isn't folding after he 3 balls the turn.

I think the turn raise is fantastic and we fell into the small number of times that he has an obvious monster, either a set or QJdd/cc or something.

Most times he's going to fold AK, KQ or even AA to the turn raise. Once he 3-bets turn he just has a biggun, like, always. Call turn 3-bet if you have odds.

I like a flop raise, but really don't like the turn raise.
Hindsight is always great, but this V probably folds to a flop bet, which is good for us. Or, we can get a free turn if he checks to us, which is also good.

I don't like raising the turn even though we have a lot of outs. V raised pre, then fired flop, fired turn. We're about 30% to improve, take the equity and blink river, get value there. I don't like raising turn bc too easy to get raised off our hand. V should probably have shoved to your turn raise.

He raised an amount that gave H a nice price. And also gave H hope that he could shove and take it down. Maybe he was hoping H would shove? I'm surprised V didn't shove, which would have forced H to fold. V didn't ah this hand very well. Looks like he was targeting value from a Kmand totally misread the situation.

*Grunch*

I'll only comment on decisions after the turn is shown. I'll just say that pre and flop are fine.

On the turn, he can have KK but we can't. We can have K10 while he probably doesn't. If he's very good, his re-raising range on this turn should be about half KK, 10-10 and about half flush or straight draws, though we block some draw combinations so he's probably got closer to 60-75% value hands. I think us having NO re-re-raising range on this turn is fine since we can't have KK while he can (assuming you're like most players and would 3-bet KK pre). The turn decision is ONLY between calling or re-re-raising. Folding is awful and shouldn't be an option. After flatting, on the river if he bets I'm raising straights and some bluffs IF the river puts a possible straight out that we don't have. If he bets river I'm flatting flushes. If he checks river I'm bluffing sometimes.

Why can't I have TT?

I said you can't have KK, not 1010. That's assuming you'd 3-bet KK pre. Flatting 1010 by you pre is standard.