Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMacDads
This post seems way too nitty imo even at 1/2. Vs will show up with QQ/AKs here from time to time as well.
I can't recall the last time I saw anyone 5-bet QQ or AK(s or o) in a live small stakes game. I'm sure I've seen it at some point, but not often. Do you see this often?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calldown88
My above post is why at this point you should never fold KK until you are sure that V is a nitty player. We need V range to have QQ or AK a very small percentage of the time to make it a call, and occasionally your unknown V will have some random spazz in his range.
It's more than a "very small percentage."
---
WIDER VALUE-ONLY RANGE---
KK is 22.6% against KK+ and 57.2% against QQ+,AK. If
- ten percent of opponents 5! with the latter "wide value" range of QQ+, AK
- the rest only 5! KK+
then our equity with KK is
26.1%.
In this example, the 4-bettor needs to call 163 to win 452 (not counting rake) which is 2.77 to 1, or right at 26.5% equity needed. So here they should probably just call off with KK. With the smaller 4-bet size and the same range assumptions, they should fold KK.
I consider 10% more than "very small" but that's just semantics.
----
POLARIZED RANGE ---
But a really good player against another perceived good player would have a 5-bet bluff range. I don't think that applies to $1-2 against unknowns but let's explore it.
Let's say
- ten percent of opponents 5! shove with the "wide value" range of QQ+, AK
- another five percent have a polarized 5-bet range like QQ+, AKs, A5s, 98s
- the rest only 5! KK+.
We're 59.2% against the polarized range. So,
our weighted equity against the three ranges is now 27.9%. Not much better!
Note that I took out AK offsuit from the polarized 5-bet range to represent that some hands will want to flat call the 4!. I feel like this second set is a really optimistic set of assumptions. I doubt one percent of the population of unknowns in $1-2 are 5-betting a polarized range, because they rightly assume that an unknown 4-bettor is only 4-betting what he wants to get all in with. Why bluff someone who's never folding?
These ranges are for unknowns. Obviously we can debate these assumptions on the margins. My assumption is someone who's 5-betting wider than this, whether polarized or unpolarized, is probably going to stick out like a sore thumb in other ways so we will quickly peg them as very aggro. We don't need to see them 5! several times in a session to come up with a probabilistic read if they're playing very aggressively preflop in other ways. If we happen to get into a 4!/5! situation and fold KK in the first hand after we sit down, well, they're an unknown and that's too bad. But it's rare that this 5! decision will come up before we get a chance to observe them as maniacs in other ways, so it's rare we'll still have to consider them an unknown player by the time this situation comes up.
Of course, against someone who's playing wild in other ways--say, opening 70/50 or 3 betting half the opens before them--I would never fold KK 150BB deep.
Anyway, with a really optimistic set of assumptions regarding wide 5-betting in live $1-2, it's still correct to 4-bet your kings to like $95 here and fold to a 5!AI. Maybe you disagree that those assumptions are optimistic. But if you can't even consider a situation where you'd fold kings preflop, you're playing Level 0 poker rather than thinking about opponents' ranges, and Level 0 poker doesn't win.
Last edited by AKQJ10; 07-13-2018 at 02:51 PM.