Quote:
Originally Posted by Reubenr676
QQ vs AK has 54-57% chance of winning so I would only run it once
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Are implying you would run it twice in an 80-20 scenario but not a 50-50? This seems backwards. The closer you are to a flip the greater an effect running it twice has.
Let the pot size be 1. Let 'p' be our winning probability (assume it's the same as our equity for simplicity)
y = RIO Variance = p*(1-p)^2+(1-p)*p^2
dy/dp = 0 = (1-p)^2-2p*(1-p)-p^2+2p*(1-p)
0 = (1-p)^2-p^2
0 = (1-p+p)(1-p-p)
0 = 1-2p
p = .5
Over the interval p = [0, 1], Variance is maximized at p = .5.
RIT halves variance.
z = RIT variance = p^2*(1-p)^2+2*p*(1-p)*(.5-p)^2+(1-p)^2*p^2
y = 2*z
p*(1-p)^2+(1-p)*p^2 = 4*p^2*(1-p)^2+4*p*(1-p)*(.5-p)^2
(1-p)+p = 4*p*(1-p)+4*(.5-p)^2
1 = 4*p-4*p^2+1-4*p+4*p^2
1 = 1
Last edited by browni3141; 09-13-2016 at 03:16 PM.