V1 started with $220; if we call the $70, we've put in $85 into this pot (39% of effective stack). That's pretty meh.

Heck, even if Villain flipped up his hand in this case, we're only a 60/40 dog. Add in some 9x, draws, etc. that we're ahead of (and of course some sets that are smashing us), we're probably not really doing all that bad against his range with a bunch of $$$ already in the pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Sorry, was taking "our stack" literally.

Agree.

Need reads and no results in OP for decent analysis. AP this is a Shove or Fold spot. If V has all of the pair+strdraw combos in his range, it's an easy shove. And, obviously, if he's two pair+, it's a fold.

$35 to call into a pot that is already ~$145 and you are very likely to get paid if you hit -- I don't mind the call, but I am never folding. Shove is definitely an option.

You have to zoom out and look at the entire hand.

You aren't just calling $35 into $145. Stopping the analysis there is lazy.

You can not assume that he will check the turn. Besides that being a completely absurd line for villain to take with any holding....you must at least consider some % of the time that he jams the turn, shutting you out of the hand.

so you're really calling $35 + [(Turn bet size) x (Turn bet frequency)]

I think if you calculate that amount, and compare it to the final pot, you'll find you really need a lot of equity to make the call on the flop, despite the deceptive looking immediate odds.

Of course, if you're planning to fold to a jam on the turn, why did we call the flop? You did say the OP played it well, and that's exactly what he did. How does jamming the turn strengthen his range so much more than min-raising over a PFR with one player left to act??

As far as "getting paid if we hit"......what are we drawing to again? We have 0 outs to the nuts

Based on his likely holdings, we have at least 6 outs to the nuts and might be ahead already. Fold away, fine with me. Not how I play it.

Well you obviously play with a 58 card deck containing six jokers.

Please explain how we're drawing to the nuts?

Any 7 gives us a straight and any T gives us a set. None of these are to the literal nuts, although if hitting the 7 doesn't make us the best hand then that means we're ahead now.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'd argue that a T is a bad card for us. Especially if you believe that V is the type to make nonsense min-raises with draws.

The 7 of diamonds is not an awesome card either.

That leaves us drawing to the other 3 7's. If we do hit it, I'm not sure we're getting tons of action. And again, if you're the type that's calling here because you believe that V is min-raise-bluffing with a draw....then his range already contains hands with a 7.

Even $35 into a pot of $150 is not good enough odds to be chasing 3 outers. Especially when the chances that you see the river for free are extra-low.

If it isn't, then that means we're ahead now.

GFWIW,I'mnotcalling;IthinkthisisclearshovevsfoldG

If he's also got overs it's pretty much a race. And that's one of the best case scenarios!

We're splitting hairs now.

Agree it's a shove fold, and in a deeper situation I'd at least think about the shove. Here though, he's got 40% of his stack in after taking a line that stinks of value. Zero fold equity.

Agree low FE. If it's a shove it's because villain has enough hands like 97 in his range, but wouldn't expect him to fold those often.

+1 (plus any mediocre flush / OESD that probably ain't folding either)

GcluelessNLnoobG