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Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn

02-14-2016 , 03:49 AM
New table...

H ($200, CO) raises to $6 with AT
BTN ($46) calls
BB ($58) calls

Flop ($19): 6 8 T
BB checks, H bets $16, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn ($67): 9
BB checks, H ?
Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Quote
02-14-2016 , 03:50 AM
lol stack sizes. Just shove.
Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Quote
02-14-2016 , 04:09 AM
Yeah, that.

I sense that your preflop raises are on the small side. Obviously I don't play in your games, but LLSNL V's usually make calling errors preflop. Sizing your raises larger should increase your profitability.

By way of example, I raise 25 - 40 at 2/4 (not even 2/5) NL. I usually get between 1 and 4 callers. My record is 7-way to the flop for $40 each. Sometimes, everyone actually folds, but it's not all that common.

I suggest starting with $12 and adding $2 for each limper. If you're getting more than a caller or two, increase that. I think you'll find that people will fairly quickly become used to your larger raises (and some will even start raising larger themselves). As they become used to them, they'll call your larger raises with much the same range as they were calling smaller ones. That isn't going to work out so well for them.
Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Quote
02-14-2016 , 07:19 AM
^ I sized it smaller only because of all the short stacks behind. Otherwise I'd make it atleast $10-12.
Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:43 AM
I don't think you should size your raises based on the stacks of the players behind you, at least not without a good read that V's will make some particular mistake that is exploitable if you do.

I think most LLSNL V's have calling ranges that don't track well with their stack sizes. For those V's that do modify their calling ranges based on their stack sizes, making your raises smaller simply provides them with more opportunities to play correctly.

You should certainly modify your raising range based on stack sizes.

This is a new concept to me, so I may well be missing something. I'd be very interested to learn more if that's the case.
Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Quote
02-14-2016 , 12:56 PM
No one has a pot size bet left (not counting you, obviously). Just get it in. BTN has 24 left, BB has 36, and the pot is 67. You're risking 36 to win 127. You only need to be right a little over 22% of the time to break even. If you're not ahead right now, flush outs alone are going to be 18%. If they have two-pair hands, a A or T may be live as well, giving you five more.

I started poking around in Pokerstove. If you give your villains all PPs 66+, basically any hand that gets a pair+a straight draw (or flopped straight), plus a few other things like TPWK, you're about 25% favorite. Factor in some fold equity, and you're good.
Shortstack dilemma.. TPTK+NFD on yucky turn Quote

      
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