Because hero can have 9x/TT/JJ/pair and backdoor draws/etc when leading turn. 3b flop is just announcing you have a set. I mean really, are there any hands that people are 3b this flop with that are not a set after V makes a big raise on a dry board? Doubtful.

Yeah H can donk 99+ but would he lead the turn with them after getting raised on the flop?

Range(3! flop) == Range(stop and go)

Look we're relying on villain being somewhat unthinking regardless. If we have particular history that makes us think V will read stop and go as weaker than 3! flop then sure but I'm not going to assume that without a particular history.

If 3 bet flop AND stop and go are both announcing we have a set and on this dry board V will fold then we need another line and that would be call flop and c/r turn NOT call flop and lead turn. The call flop c/r turn has the added risk that V might check behind OTT and then it's hard for us to GII.

If we can assume the Hero will call a 5X dry flop raise oop, then lead turn with TT say, I think we can also assume the V will "sometimes" be unable to fold KK+ to a 3b OTF. His raise is polarizing, a 3-bet is to induce a big mistake on his part, imho.

This guy gets it

Stop and go is less scary because you get to look like you're not sure about continuing flop before you flat whereas looking unsure then 3betting is lol bad hollywooding. Leading turn should ring alarm bells for V but he's going to be trying to reconcile that with weak looking flop lead, tank call flop. He can, imo, more easily rationalise a smallish turn lead as a weaker over pair or A9 than he can rationalise a flop 3bet as something other than a set.

If nothing else the stop and go is more confusing and in my experience few players opt for folding when they're confused.

Attempting to x/r turn too easily let's V off the hook by letting him check it back on the turn. I think that's possibly the highest risk play here. Having said that a lot of players are happy barreling while they are just being called so I probably prefer calling flop raise and then checking turn to 3betting flop.

Flop donk followed by 3bet shove works well a bit shallower but at this stack depth I think V has so much behind after his flop raise that he tank-folds more than he sigh-calls vs 3bet.

Stop N go is less scary because villain sees a $125-150ish bet out there on the felt as he contemplates his action as opposed to a flop crai which is almost $500 sitting out there staring him in the face. Big big difference especially to a rec player.

donk-call-lead looks so strong here but sooooo value heavy

donk-raise looks strong here but protecty... and bluffy...

donk-raise-donk looks more confusing than stop and go imo and this guy wants to call when things dont make sense

i mean...

Easy call. Not even close

why are we dunking turn? If he raises flop on this dry board he is going to continue a ton of hands.

Do you really think it goes Check / Check on the turn that often? NO - he will bet, especially with an overpair. If you had JJ-QQ in this spot would you check the turn?

I would check the turn and so would quite a few tighter regs in my game. However many in my game would just keep betting. Earlier ITT I probably overestimated the risk of turn going check check.

Because when people raise flop on 932r and get called by someone that isn't perceived as a total idiot/whale, they're gonna start being a little worried that they are beat, so they check turn in position because their overpair or A9 doesn't look so hot anymore. If they happen to have 45 they're probably going to check too. Betting forces them to make a decision which could be to shove. It's ok to bet your own hand FFS! If V isn't calling a turn bet, then he's probably not betting the turn himself either.

If I had JJ/QQ I wouldn't be raising the flop to $100 when we are $500 effective in a 1/2 game. I'd also check the turn because when you get called the other person just has a set most of the time if they aren't a total idiot. If we are playing vs a total idiot that will donk off $500 with 9x then cool, but that's pretty rare.

+1

Decision is ebb and flow...

If V = experienced 3/5+ type (or spewtard) & H image = not passive => GII on flop

If V = rec or H's image = passive => flat flop

How to continue will depend on the turn card...

If Turn is A, K, or Q then check. V may pick up value or decide it's a good card to bluff.

If Turn is innoccuous, then bet $125. Hero's 9-x picks up value simply by the turn bricking.


IMO, flat flop and wait for the turn card before deciding what to do.