Basic question. What implied odds do you look for when set mining on a very weak table? I had a situation last night when, on the button with 99, I was facing a maniac and a large 3 bet from a young cocky tag with implied odds of only 10:1 if I got them both all in.

12-1 minimum I look for with very stationy villains, with unknowns or "standard" 1-2 villains prefer 20-1 or so.

I read in some book, you just put a % after your pocket and that's the max amount of the effective stack you want to invest.

So for 22 it's 2%, for 88 it's 8%, ...

That's not the right way to think about setmining. It's just not. It depends a lot more on opponents' range & tendencies than on how high your pair is (which does matter obv, but not as much as that method implies). For instance, if I know my opponent's range is QQ+ and that he'll stack off with an overpair basically always, calling $15 with $200 stacks with any pair is just fine.

Using that logic you can almost call with any two if you know he'll stack off and has QQ+

so pocket TT would = 10%
JJ=11
QQ=12
KK=13
and
AA=14

sunds like a great formula to me

Absolutely, if you're deep enough.

The odds of flopping 2p when not holding a pocket pair are 49-1 I think, so you need IO of at least 50-1 to make this worthwhile, and that doesn't take into account the times he flops a set and you flop 2p.

depends on their range, how often they stack off with overpair, etc. you generally want 15:1 at the very minimum

Holy smokes...

You'll flop a set once in seven times.

At least 7 to 1.

JFC.

It starts at 10:1 and goes up from there, depending upon how risk adverse you are. Lots of players are much closer to 20:1. IIRC Bart Hanson talked about needing around 18:1 in tougher games and no less than 15:1. Someone who's more current on his stuff could comment though.

For me, it depends more on how lightly I think the V will stack off and/or how deep they are. If they're the type of player to get 100bb in with TT on a 942 board, I'm willing to play play a little looser with my PP.

Against a 3b, I'm probably going to fold 99 in most cases unless you think a ship/raise can get you HU vs the cocky kid, in which case it might be worth doing. If he's a TAG who is 3b though, it's still probably just a fold.

More relevant though - if you have to get them both all in to be getting only 10:1, you need to be folding.

The odds of flopping a set are different than the odds of flopping two pair.

I use 20:1 in a vacuum, it's bigger than most other people. What you need to factor into the IO though is actually getting the money. V's stack is $200 and you need to call $8. 200:8 = 25:1. But if you're oop it's going to be difficult to get ai. A c/r or a donk will tip your hand, especially if you weren't the pf raiser. Checking also risks checks behind.

So IP I can be okay with odds (just stack size:to call) from 15:1 through 20:1 and oop I'm looking for greater than 20:1.

Also overpairs have a lot more equity against two pair than they do against a set.

OP, to reply to your question: there's no simple answer. Think of 10:1 as an absolute theoretical bare minimum, as in, if you magically know the guy's stacking off 100% of the time if you flop a set (you flop a set ~1/8 of the time, but still lose those hands occasionally). You're never in that situation in real life. You have to think about how wide the opponent's range is, and how much money you're realistically going to get on average when you flop a set. Players are bad in different ways. Total maniacs who triple barrel 90% of the time give you great setmining odds. Scared money nits do not (the type who are able to fold overpairs, at least). Setmining depends on the opponent being likely to put in lots of money postflop with most of his range. If that describes the situation, getting 15:1 is great. If not, you might need something more like 20:1. But no one can specify precisely what you need for a given situation.

The better you are, the less IO you need.

But then you are not set mining soley, you are playing your hand against your V's range.
If you don't know the reason why it can be ok to call with a small stack:bet ratio then you should default 15:1+.

Grunch:

Do you mean stacks ie Stack to bet ratio? Or implied odds? Just because the money is there doesn't mean your gonna get it every time you hit.

I try to ask myself "based on my knowledge of this(these) player do I think I can AVERAGE 10x the PF bet when I hit." If not then "what's my plan B". For instance with 99 you can flop an over pair too. With a V you have good reads on maybe you have fold equity?

I don't think you have to be 20X every time to call and I don't think it's an auto call with 20x (or any other ratio) though certainly there are situations where the stacks are just too shallow.

Sometimes there are 4 callers. Sometimes there is a short stack and you know he'll shove any piece of it. Some villain bet/ fold and pot control too much. Some villains are "suspicious" and will "put you on a draw" when you shove and call with TP. Etc etc etc.

Point being that stack size isn't the only factor to consider. It is a prime one, Of course, but not the only one.

so it's 10:1 if you get it in vs both? It's a fold or a 4b jam

A big mistake is thinking that all opponents' stacks combined give you enough IO. You're so rarely getting ai MW. You need 1) at least one guy with enough in his stack 2) that/those guy(s) to be willing to get ai light 3) position

If it's multiway though (think 5 or 6 players calling a 7bb raise pf), it might not need to be an ai situation to justify set mining, correct?

Correct.

It's all about the return on investment that you can expect to recieve.
So if for some reason you could guarentee that 7 people would call a raise pre flop you could call the raise first to act with a pocket pair knowing you are only getting 8:1 or 10:1 if the player just will not stack off with an OP since when you hit a set you are still getting paid 7:1 + 8:1 giving you 15:1 effective.

The obvious problem with that being that it's hard to know how many people will be calling a pre flop raise. And with more people in the hand you increase the likeliehood that someone else will flop a better hand or a massive combo draw. In general if you don't deviate from the 15:1 IP and 20:1 OOP suggestions then you will rarely be making a mistake.

This is another case of asking the wrong question. The question should be whether you should ever call solely to set mine. In my mind, the answer is you can, but it is much rarer than most LLSNL think.

First of all, many people make the mistake of equating IO to stack size/bet size ratio. There are two constraints that inhibit this from being true. Weak players don't have a bankroll. They have a budget. If they are on their last/only buy in, they will hesitate to commit their last money. When they lose, they have to go home or worse, wait around watching until their ride goes home. Stronger players are less likely to stack off, recognizing that an OP or TP isn't the nuts.

The second factor is that the villain isn't always going to have a hand when you hit. In fact, most of the time he won't. A rough estimate is 2/3 of the time he has nothing, either because the board has an over card or he didn't pair at all. He might make a cbet, but he isn't calling off his stack with air.

The third factor is that in a limped pot, nobody feels compelled to defend it. Two people limp, you limp with 44 and the blinds come in too. Flop comes J84r. You have a set, but everyone else has nothing and folds. You need someone that feels they have to stop you from taking the pot to build it.

There are some other factors that occasionally come in like losing to a better. The result will be that you'll find over time you're not collecting 7.5 times your initial call if you are just folding when you miss. Therefore, you're -EV when solely set mining, no matter what the stack sizes are.

That doesn't mean the circumstances can't come up where in that case it makes sense to set mine. The issue is if you can't come up with why you want to set mine other than "it is standard" or "I've got IO" you should fold. The game being soft is not a good reason.

If it hasn't already, a big breakthrough in your game will be when you look at a situation when holding 77 and develop a successful plan to win the pot if you miss. It means understanding the villain well. It requires having a multi-street plan pf that will vary based on the flop. And it requires quick reactions. It takes time and practice to do it. But until you do, I believe you can improve your winrate by folding 22-55 in most circumstances.