1/2NL ($300 max buy in)

Villain ($~900) - Mid twenties, white male - believe he may be in engineering. During this session, he has been splashy. He has both called and raised OOP with questionable holdings (raised his UTG straddle with 10 2s and called a limp/3! to ~3x his original raise). Villain has been caught bluffing several times including three barreling / shoving river for ~1/2PSB with AKo as the PF raiser from SB.

He has built his stack through a couple of largish pots where he shoved and was called when he had the effective nuts. Villain c/r shoved (his opponent bet $100 into a ~$60 pot with ~$150 more behind) on a 872r board with a set of 8s to crack Kings - the other opponent started with ~$250 effective.

Villain and Hero have played some before but not much. Hero recalls that Villain can be spewy and that image was reinforced through the play during this session. Don't know if it's a significant factor but Villain knows Hero plays in larger games (usually PLO) when they run.

Based on listening to conversation between Villain and others in a previous session, Villain is a thinking player that understands basic poker math / concepts but is still prone to take odd lines, vastly overestimate his FE against certain opponents, and spew.

Hero (~$1200) - During this session, probably viewed as a thinking player on the tighter side (especially compared to the table) but aggressive when in a pot with the ability to make moves if the situation presents itself. Hero has won a good portion of his stack without going to showdown.

Hero stacked Villain (V was ~$270 effective) when Hero had a nut straight on the turn (two clubs on the board as well), got it in, river blanked and Villain claimed to have had a set.

Hero was caught betting $80 from the button when checked to by two other players on the river into a ~$140 pot on a AQ466 board and was called by A7o.

Hero also won a ~$170 pot calling with third pair on a river bet. (board AcKc6h4h2d - Hero had QQ).


OTTH:

HERO (~$1200) Button
Villain (~$900) BB
PF: Folds around to HERO who has 88 - Raises to $12
SB folds, Villain Calls

Flop (~$25): J108
Villain bets $15
Hero raises to $45
Villain Raises to $160
Hero Calls

Turn (~$345): J1086
Villain Checks
Hero bets $200
Villain Calls

River (~$745): J10864
Villain takes a couple of seconds and says he's all in for ~$540

It's ~$540 to Hero - thoughts? At 1/2 are we ever good here or is the opposite and we are good here enough to make this a snap call?

Unusual hand... I have a hard time believing Q9 c/c's turn often. I can't see the bigger sets taking this line often either. Given V's description, i think there might be a lot of 9T and 89 in his range. Line kinda makes sense for 8s9s, maybe QsJs.

As much as bets this big in 1/2 usually mean the effective nuts, I don't think I can find a fold here with player description and the way hand played out.

After I read this, the only way that'd make sense to me is if villain was holding Js,As to hit the back door flush. If u lose against a bigger set, there isn't much you can do.. Knowing this is the only valid hand I can think of that'd make sense, I'd probably make the call unless I picked up some solid reads.

AsJs or Js9s or air. We have 8s. Maybe 9s7s too.

you lose to 2 or 3 combos, call. Cute little donk raise otf. What would you have done if he shipped the turn?

MAYBE he does this with any 9, giving a few flush combos (A9ss, K9ss, 97ss). You have reads he spews but does he spew in huge pots?

I have the dumb. Idea is basically the same, though.

Kind of smells like KQss overplayed his hand a bit OTF and then backed into a frush draw and binked the river.

Grunch.... Tough spot. Villain was caught bluffing with half psb on river and had the nuts when he shoved. Villain could have a set, flopped straight or have a busted straight and two pair. Villain didn't raise preflop so leaning towards those hands with this range.

I'd find a fold here... It's a large stack... Villain also tried bluffing by barrelling all 3 streets which he hasn't done here.

Anyone like checking turn after the action on the flop? Getting CR this deep would not be good and villain C/C after the flop is unexpected.

I call, and for me, this ^ sort of makes the point that it's a call.

Villain is going to be polarized on the river. Flushes or air.

But it's hard to backdoor the flush with hands he 3-bets on the flop.

For example, the only obvious flush, like APD said, is 1 combo of KsQs.

If we expand on that, then, perhaps in total, there are like ~5-8 flush combos (for a start, maybe combos like AsJs, As9s, KsQs, Ks9s, Qs7s, QsJs, 9s7s, and some of those are more likely than others - V might 3-bet AJs and KQs pre, etc).

However, if villain is going to 3-bet the flop with some of those hands, certainly he can 3-bet with a huge # of other combos that don't happen to have 2 spades. Looking at KQ alone, there are 15 combos that aren't now a flush. And many other hands are either now air or lack the showdown value to win without bluffing, and I expect the third flush card is a pretty tempting card for V to bluff.

I also think he often leads the turn with hands he 3-bets on the flop when he turns additional equity (generally going to be a monster draw) with the spade. Here, he checked. Makes me think KQ not spades. OP, you have the best sense for his tendencies and range in game, but when you say and then he takes this pretty weird line with a very polarizing river shove giving you excellent odds to call... well, OK, readless you'd be in a tough spot.

Here, I'm definitely not folding.

You also asked the question , which I think is too binary a question. It's not "ever" anything, and it's not a "snap" either. The truth is in the middle - we're getting almost 2.5:1, meaning we need to be good < 30% of the time.

I think we're good that often, for sure.

If you call knowing you will lose 70% of the time, you're making money.

And for fun, let's say he 3-bets the flop with 16 combos of KQ. You now beat 15 of those. Assuming he gets to the river with all the KQ (whatever he's 3-betting the flop, regardless of whether it turns a spade draw, I doubt he folds turn... whatever he 3-bet is for him some sort of monster whether it's the KQ OESD + 2 overs or A9 OESD + over), and since we need < 30% equity, this is a call if villain's entire range is KQ no-flush + 6 total flush combos.

I'm not saying that IS his range... but if we start there, then OK, perhaps we could add two or three more flushes... but we could certainly add a good number of other air / weak hand bluffs, as well (A9, T9, 98, for starters). I don't know if he would bluff with QJ one-pair, but if he's going to bluff, he should include a hand like that as it has no showdown value here.

So yes, you'll lose at some frequency here, but the call is +EV.

No. Keep charging dem overplayed OESD and getting value out of dem 2 pears. I would need some info like he tanked for quite a few seconds preflop before calling. Otherwise I take JJ out of his range and probably TT too.

Logical hand ranges dont always give the answer. Sometimes its just that "i don't know how Im beat, but Im beat"- feel.

It seems like an insane spot for him to bluff. But then again his line is bizarre for any possible hand.

I fold in game. But am unsure truthfully if that is correct

Euther we should fold flop or call river.

Lol at folding flop this deep with boat redraw outs and him playing worse for value.Also I don't get the reasoning of if you call x street you must call an .80 percent pot bet On the river,no matter what!...As played,I feel like you're beat,but not sure how.

If a T comes on the river and villain jams are you really going to be happy about stacking off with effectively bottom full? The reason this is either a fold flop or call river spot is that we think he's bluffing frequently on the flop and that he's either going to retain his bluffs in an unbalanced way or give up so frequently that we can get to cheap showdown. If villain is going to bluff in a balanced fashion, we can justify a flop call only if he's going to essentially turn a straight face up when the board pairs and we have implied odds against that hand. After we get 3 bet on the flop, as well, our goal should be to get to showdown, so we should check turn. Whille this isn't necessarily a call flop so we must call river spot, because he could have been planning on giving up too often and then backed into a flush, the more important point is to recognize from a very early point in the hand that we're only beating bluffs and to play the rest of the hand accordingly.

semi-bluffs, tho.

This is never a fold OTF, and that does not imply that it is always a call river. We have a lot more information on the river. In this particular case I agree that there are enough flop semi-bluffs and weirdly played hands we beat to make it a call, but A (call flop) does not imply B (call river).

I do think we have to call river though. I agree with Willy's reasoning as to why that's the case.

It's not a call on any river (like a 9, A or 7) but we have to ask what our plan was when we called on the flop. We called because villain is either going to under bluff or overbluff on later streets, and if we have no idea which it will be, we should just fold on the flop because we're not beating any value hands. If villain is going to play a balanced polarized range, we should fold flop unless we have implied odds against a straight.

Hand is misplayed. There is no reason to call the flop.

Did villain actually say the words "I'm all in for 540"?

Or just "I'm all in" or "all in"?

Villain stated "I'm all in." When I asked how much he had behind, he took a quick survey of his stack and said "a little over $500."

As played, I'm probably calling. Seems a little bluffy/scared to call a river bet with top pair or mid pair, so he just shoves instead.

If he had a huge hand, I feel that he would have let the hero bet into him on the river. Although, if he backdoored into a flush he could be scared hero will just check behind. But hero has shown on aggression the whole hand and the 4 of spades really didn't change the texture.

However, I would personally play the flop as is, check the turn, then call whatever bet he makes on the river.

OK, got it. Just curious.

If he had said, "I'm all in for 540," I'd be a touch more inclined to call.

I'm folding here.
This just looks far too much like JsXs, QsXs, 9sXs type hands and I don't think that are good here that often.
Sure, sometimeshe is turning weird two pair hands in a bluff, but sometimes he is also turning a straight into some sort of weird bluff.

I just don't think that we are good here often enough.

J10, 108, J8

This guy called a limp/3! with 102 offsuit, there are definitely value hands in his range we beat.

Well V has established himself as a loose canon & now has built up a stack having the nutz on the river. Is this the time he starts bluffin' again with $$ he built up after having established a rep & gettin' people to call his all-in bets?

I can see this [only because I have a wild imagination] as V c/c the turn when you called his 3! with a set of Js or Ts. Maybe, just maybe, he's slowed down this time [thinkin' you might very well have flopped a str8] & wants to see how this pans out from your end. Big maybe, eh?

Then, when the flush comes, he reverts to his semi-bluff style thinkin' "I ain't folding my set & he may fold his str8 to my all-in thinkin' I binked the flush!" If that's the case you're beat. But he could also be thinkin' this with JT.

Anyways, if I give him a lotta' flush hands, like AsQs [that he'd possibly 3! with 2 overs & bdfd??] along with AJs,A9s, KQs, K9s, QJs, Q7s, J9s, 97s - all in spades.
And T9o/s, 98o/s & 97o, you have ~43.5% equity. Take away the AQs & you have 44%

Add JJ/TT to his range & you have ~37.3% equity. Take away the AQs & you have 38%

2.5:1 means we're puttin' in 28.5% of the money into the pot.

I don't know how we'd add up all these combos & come to an approximation over the table though.

This appears to be one of those hands that proves you need more than 30 buy-ins to ensure a <5% risk of ruin if you're going to be playing these type games a lot?