BTN has $750
Hero has $640
MP has $130

The game is playing loose and crazy, a few gambling type players and deep stacks through many big pots and all ins. MP is an aggro bad player who has lost many pots through bad play and bad luck.
BTN is over 60 but not a nit, he is very loose preflop. He was playing very wild when he was at $200 but has tightened up since getting a big stack.
One hand earlier he called a reraise with K4s on the button and shoved when it was checked to him on a Q77 flop, spiking a K on the turn.
Earlier he check called 2 streets in a multiway flop on a 9J36 then made a massive overbet shove on the river J and showed a J and said he had J3. This is the only huge bet he has made.

Onto the hand

UTG raises to $23, 1 caller, MP calls $23, CO calls $23, button calls $23, Hero calls $23 in SB with 99

Flop ($115)
89T
Hero checks, checked to MP who goes all in for $104, folded to Button thinks for a bit looks at my stack size and shoves for all in for $700. Hero?

I think there are better spots here. The board is very wet and hits a huge range, and the $700 is a massive overbet. I would fold.

I'd call for sure.

This is absolutely gross.

I really don't want to, but I fold. Let out a "You stole my move."

Hate it, but fold unless I have a very good read that villain could be doing this with two pair or some kind of combo draw. The other all in makes a draw less likely here. Over betting a draw gives villain zero fold equity since there is an all in. Even if Villain is doing this with something like AJ you are still only winning 60% of the time. Best case scenario here is that you are facing bottom set or top 2, but I think a straight is most likely. There will be better spots.

I think AT does this sometimes. Also any 2 pair combo and bottom set.

The bet prices out draws so i don't think JJ or JT does this and DEFINITELY not made straights. Made straights want the overcall and go crazy on next streets a lot of the time.

Nasty spot but I call here expecting to be good

You are only winning 60% of the time? I think that's playing scared. 60% of the time is good.

Really doubt there will be many better spots to double a 350bb stack

Disagree. I am usually expecting to see a made straight here. When there is a flush draw on the board, and a large pot in the middle, many low stakes players just want to protect themselves from getting sucked out on and don't worry about extracting maximum value with the straight. Further, most low stake players are not making that big of an over bet with worse.

Obviously if you put him on the draw it is an insta call. My point was that if you are pretty sure you are facing a straight, calling and hoping you are facing a draw is not a great play as even if you get "lucky," you are still only winning a little more than half the time.

Half the deck or more will make you puke on the turn.

Buh bye.

Somebody please back up your fold stance with a range estimate and an EV calculation.

Hint... Fist pump snap call.

I would fold, as gross as it is. We're only in for one bet.

Also, I think we should have a pf squeezing range here. 99 is a pretty good candidate, IMO.

I would absolutely call. You've got 7 outs to fill up or better on the flop and 10 to fill up or better on the turn. Are you really that afraid of JQ? You just saw V call a raise with K4s and then shove on Q high. He claimed he was playing J3 earlier.

I think it's more likely you are up against Axs, JJ, JT, K8s, 67o or 67s etc.. I mean there are so many hands V could have that you dominate right now.

And even if short stack MP has the straight it doesn't really matter because you are playing for a $500 side pot. It sounds like V is trying to isolate shorty with a mediocre hand.

Fist pump snap call

PS: really surprised by anyone advocating to fold here. did you bother reading V's description?

Easy fold. This is almost always 67 or qj from this V who is playing super tight trying to book a win. I turbo muck

Agreed

I think this is a call if he can ever do this with two pair or pair + draw or combo draw

We're still only a 2:1 dog against his flopped straights and doing much better against the rest of his range

I'd call and expect to see a vulnerable hand more often, not a nutted hand like QJ.

Fold. Overbet jam in 1/2 is the nuts a large percentage of the time. That coupled with him doing it with the J3 earlier, eyeing your stack, and the fact it sounds like he's a pretty bad player and you'll get better/less risky spots to take his money....its a fold for me.

Here's a follow up question to everyone saying push the small edges. In a typical capped game, do you really coinflip in that spot, for your whole stack, with almost nothing of yours in the pot, against a guy you think you are much better than/has lots of leaks? If you double up, great, but if you lose, you have to rebuy for 200 and hope to find 4-5 good spots to have a chance to catch up. If it was table stakes, and you could buy in for 1300 after losing, by all means call and gamble, but does being in a capped game affect your decision?

Who says we are coinflipping? If I have a chance like this to take 350 BB's from an action junkie villain calling raises and pushing with K4s I'm taking it.

If you are properly rolled for the game I don't see how you can fold here. OP didn't specify table rules either. Where I play you can buy in for $300 at $1/2 and $1000 at $2/5.

No, in a cash game you should push every +EV edge if you're properly rolled for the game.

Also the villain described is going to lose his money to someone tonight so you should be more willing to gamble with him in marginally +EV spots. You don't know when he's going to lose his stack to someone and you can't be waiting around all night for the perfect spot.

--- PokerStove analysis ---

board: 8d9sTs

distribution equity win shares tie shares
9d9h 50.354% 32557.00 843.00
88,TT,9T,89,... 49.646% 32087.00 843.00

computation info:
0.007 seconds
66,330 games
8,906,942 games/sec

distribution info:
9d9h = { 9d9h }

88,TT,9T,89,67,7J,JQ,7s8s,7sAs,JsKs,AsJs,As8s,AsQs ,5s6s,QsKs,AsKs,JJ,QQ = { 8c8d,8c8h,8c8s,8d8h,8d8s,8h8s,TcTd,TcTh,TcTs,TdTh, TdTs,ThTs,9cTd,9cTh,9cTs,Tc9d,9dTh,9dTs,Tc9h,Td9h, 9hTs,Tc9s,Td9s,Th9s,8c9d,8c9h,8c9s,9c8d,8d9h,8d9s, 9c8h,9d8h,8h9s,9c8s,9d8s,9h8s,6c7d,6c7h,6c7s,7c6d, 6d7h,6d7s,7c6h,7d6h,6h7s,7c6s,7d6s,7h6s,7cJd,7cJh, 7cJs,Jc7d,7dJh,7dJs,Jc7h,Jd7h,7hJs,Jc7s,Jd7s,Jh7s, JcQd,JcQh,JcQs,QcJd,JdQh,JdQs,QcJh,QdJh,JhQs,QcJs, QdJs,QhJs,7s8s,7sAs,JsKs,JsAs,8sAs,QsAs,5s6s,QsKs, KsAs,JcJd,JcJh,JcJs,JdJh,JdJs,JhJs,QcQd,QcQh,QcQs, QdQh,QdQs,QhQs }

It doesn't matter if you have a million dollars, if you can only buy in for 200. You take a slight edge in this spot for a chance later to get this guy in dead to rites.

FFS... There is only one hand you don't want to see...TT... And he has this only a very small % of the time. There are only 3 combos of TT available.

He has AA here more then anything else.

I completely understand the point about it being a 100bb BI capped game.

But if you fold here... seriously... rack up and rathole your stack. You are playing too deep for your comfort level, rolled or not.