$2/$5 NL live game

I have 55 in the BB and check after 3 limpers.

EP....just sat down and Ive never seen him before. 40 year old black guy.

MP...Earlier I open raised KJ to $20. He called from the BB. SB also called and it went 3 to the flop. He check / called $40 on a K83 flop (SB folded). He checked / called $100 on an 8 turn. River went check/check and he showed a K and mucked so he had KT at best.

Button is a solid player who I have history with.

Hero ($525)...been card dead for a while so I probably look tight as hell but most of these players know Im not.

Flop ($20) Qd5d4h.

I check. Sometimes I lead here sometimes I dont. EP ($155) bets $20. MP ($700) calls. Button ($300) calls. I check raise to $95. EP and MP both call. Button folds.

Turn ($330). Ah. What do you do here?

Shove.

What alternatives were you considering? Checking again to give them a free card to hit their draw? Maybe they just turned a wheel or a set of aces, but far more likely they're still drawing.

Bet half the pot so they can both call, leaving you with a lot of rivers that put you in a tough spot?

We aren't in the business of trying to get every hand that potentially has equity against us to fold. We want to get calls from hands that are worse, even if they have some equity.

I think a shove on the turn gets a ton of folds and right now you are in the catbird seat. I'm betting something more enticing - probably $230 or so. By the time you get to the river, your river shove is getting looked up super light because it is so small compared to the pot.

The turn overshove is never a bluff and your opponents will probably figure that out and fold.

Your goal is to get it all in.
And you are never checking this turn.

Bet enough so that even the best draws are making an error to call you.
But give them a chance to make this error.

--CM

You hit on the crux of my situation. The pot is $330. We can be almost certain that EP is going to call his last $60 no matter what I bet. So if I bet $200, the pot is going to be $590 when it gets to MP. Hes getting 3-1 to call if he has the flush draw. That would be a mistake, but Im going to have to go all in, or check/call an all in on any river. If the river brings the flush and I check he could shove with just a Q as a bluff. If it doesnt bring the flush Im obviously shoving myself.

So I always wonder if its not best just to shove the turn now. A fair amount of guys will call with a flush draw anyway because "the pot was so big I couldnt fold my draw".

Im not disagreeing that $230 is probably correct. Im just throwing this out there. There have been times where I did bet the turn like you suggest. Then the flush hits and I check/call and want to throat punch myself for not just shoving the turn and making him make the big mistake instead of doing it myself.

Also, the turn overshove is rarely a bluff but not never. I posted a hand a day or two ago where I called a overbet shove on the turn and villain only had a straight draw. Ive called a few of them lately.

I know it sucks to fold a set, but you can be pretty much 100% sure that V isn't turning his hand into a bluff on the river in order to win what is not a huge sidepot. If he has a made hand, he is calling you because he thinks he is good, so why risk turning his showdown value into a bluff? He's only shoving with air or the nuts and he shouldn't have a ton of air by the river here once the diamond hits. So I'm comfortable check/folding a diamond river here. I'm shoving a heart river, and if he got there backdoor somehow, more power to him.

Both EP and button have less than a pot sized bet left. I don't want to end up in an awkward river situation with the other guy. I am all in on the turn

Pot is $330. EP has $60 left. MP has me covered and I believe I have $420 left.

C/r the $60 all in after lp calls.

Obviously this would be the best scenario if we have some reason to believe that EP will shove his remaining $60 when checked to. Pretty risky though if both players have draws or a Q, both of which they will likely check on the turn.

The most balling play would be to bet $30, and then raise all-in after the 60 stack goes all-in.

I agree w poster above me though, seems risky

Grunch.

If you check OTT you're repping a diamond draw. You may get a bet from someone with an ace. The problem with checking is that it's possible that the best hand out against you is a diamond draw, and in that case you'll miss a whole street of value, unless the diamond draw also has the ace, which will probably be bet.

So I think it boils down to getting value from the extreme bottom of their ranges, and also getting value from some draws. If a heart or diamond rivers, you never get any good action unless the board pairs as well. So I think the reasons to bet are too compelling to allow for a check.

I would probably just announce, with some hesitation, "same bet," and put out another 95. I.e. induce a big bluff.

In this case, it's a protected pot and pricing anyone out is a parlay. Maybe even a trifecta.

I think it's common for poker players to get distorted judgment because they remember the times a good play "went bad."

I'd open shove. Stack sizes are too awkward for anything else. I'd shove Axdd as well.

C/r is interesting because EP will almost always ship in the rest of his short stack. Its a disaster if it checks through and they both miss their FD/SD and fold the river. I'd prefer to get the money in myself and hopefully MP makes a big mistake and calls with a draw.

I did open shove this turn. The reason I posted the hand is that I think my poker strengths are excellent hand reading ability and remarkable patience....but hands like this are my weakness. Hands where I know I'm ahead on the turn, but the stack sizes are a bit awkward. I want max value but also dont want to get outdrawn and then compound the mistake by putting more money in when I do get outdrawn.

Shoving here prevents the compounding the mistake part but Im sure I also lose value overall.

The ceiling on this play is 150 of EV. You need to discount that by the chance of it actually happening. There are lots of players at these stakes who will release 98dd in those circumstances. This player may not be one of them, but 425 is a lot to call off in a 2/5 game.

Open shoving here with the set loses value but isn't terrible. Shoving with Axdd is literally the worst possible way to play that hand. You are never getting called by worse. Axdd should want to keep Qs and lower diamond draws in the pot.

$230

Basically this: I bet 1/2 my stack, 2/3PSB, 215.

I think $230 is correct.

With EP being so short, only having 60 more, I think I like a check best and letting him put his remaining chips in. No Villain in this game is going to see this strange line from you as strength and the A specifically hit their over calling range as the nutflush is very like to be in there in a limped pot. After EP bets allin you get to see what MP does who is a lot deeper and you inr eality are after his money, therefore you can decide if a second check raise is the best (which I think in this rare instance it is) or if you want to only call.

And what happens if EP has something like KQ or a small flush draw and doesnt bet? I think the pot is too big to risk checking.