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Set of 10s, Turn? Set of 10s, Turn?

10-27-2018 , 11:26 AM
NL 1/2
Hero is on the cutoff with 1010
and $180. Hero has been at the table for 2 hours. It's a wild game. Hero is probably the tightest player. Hero's friend is in the BB and villain in the hand. We've logged a ton of hours together. He's a great LAG (in my opinion). We're pretty competitive. I admire his game. There are no limpers to Hero which is very unusual. Hero makes it $10. Button folds, SB folds. Villain reraises Hero to $30. This is small for his 3!s. Usually it's $40 but then again no one else was in the hand. Hero does not think this is a bluff. Hero puts him on AK or JJ. His 3! range is limited (for the most part) to 10/10 or up here including AK and AQ.
POT $61
Flop A45
Villain bets $25.
This is a smallish bet. I have a 10 which may be no good if the flush comes. Should I just fold here? What would you do? I thought to myself based on this sizing, "he has no diamond."
Turn $111
10
I have a set with $125 behind. How should Hero proceed after BB checks? What's best practice?
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote
10-27-2018 , 11:41 AM
I would check behind and look to call or make a value bet of around $75 on the river on any non face card/ non diamond run out. Looks like he’s heavily weighted to AK and pocket pairs and I don’t see him having the flush draw either. I would still play it safely though on this wet connected board.
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote
10-27-2018 , 11:52 AM
Check behind is something that didn't cross my mind...which is probably why i've been stuck in 1/2 forever lol
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote
10-28-2018 , 02:09 AM
I am not folding the flop with that bet sizing.

With your reads and awkward stack size compared to the size of the pot I would either shove turn or you could bet the turn like half pot and plan on calling or shoving the river. Leaning toward a half pot turn bet then river shove.

Given his small lead on the flop and check on the turn he likely doesn't have much except for a flush draw or maybe some Ax for 2 pair. If he had something like AA, 55, 44, AK or AQ even with the Kd or Qd and he is actually good I can't see him taking this line on that board. You have decent equity against a lot of made hands.

I ran the equity against a range of AA-88,55,44, A5s,A5o,A4s,A4o,A2s,A2o, AxQd, KdQd, KQo with diamonds, 9d8d-7d6d and came up with 85.8% equity. Take the sets out and it is 87.3%. Even if you take the mid PP's and suited connectors as well as all the Ax stuff out you are way ahead at 73.8%

Add in all the Broadway's suited in diamonds and all the off suit Broadway combos with a diamond along with the original.range and you are 82%

Last edited by shangobango; 10-28-2018 at 02:38 AM.
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote
10-28-2018 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shangobango
I am not folding the flop with that bet sizing.

With your reads and awkward stack size compared to the size of the pot I would either shove turn or you could bet the turn like half pot and plan on calling or shoving the river. Leaning toward a half pot turn bet then river shove.

Given his small lead on the flop and check on the turn he likely doesn't have much except for a flush draw or maybe some Ax for 2 pair. If he had something like AA, 55, 44, AK or AQ even with the Kd or Qd and he is actually good I can't see him taking this line on that board. You have decent equity against a lot of made hands.

I ran the equity against a range of AA-88,55,44, A5s,A5o,A4s,A4o,A2s,A2o, AxQd, KdQd, KQo with diamonds, 9d8d-7d6d and came up with 85.8% equity. Take the sets out and it is 87.3%. Even if you take the mid PP's and suited connectors as well as all the Ax stuff out you are way ahead at 73.8%

Add in all the Broadway's suited in diamonds and all the off suit Broadway combos with a diamond along with the original.range and you are 82%
In retrospect I guess he could maybe take this line with AxKd, or AxQd. Still I am.betting the turn.You are 87% against what you said his likely 3 bet range was.
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote
10-28-2018 , 08:49 AM
Jam the turn. Im never checking behind in this spot against what you say is a LAG.
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote
10-28-2018 , 08:49 PM
I like the call on the flop, given your potential outs and his small sizing.

On the turn, I'd like to play back at him a bit by betting very small (ex. $25) and see if you can induce a shove.

I think he has something like QQ/KK or AQ here. I don't think you can get him to call with worse hands if you shove the turn.
Set of 10s, Turn? Quote

      
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