1/2 home game

V ($220) is a late 20s white guy. Playing tight (almost nitty) and seems to be scared money. Was talking with him about being in his third year of law school so assume the money on the table means something to him. Said he played at this game once before through H doesn't recognize him. Tripled up earlier when he limp/shoved a straddled pot w Aces when he had about $100 in front of him so he may not always open raises premium holdings pre.

H (covers) - mid-30s white guy obviously playing after work. Running and playing very well tonight and sitting on about $1200. Haven't shown any bluffs, won big pots taking people to value town. Should have a very good image, been flopping big hands and betting them.

Prior hand several hours ago - V raises pre then bets $40 on a J97 flop. One caller and H x/r to $125 and takes it down. V claims to have folded AJ, H says he had J9 but didn't show.

On to the hand - V raises pre from early position to $12. Two callers and H calls from button with 76dd. Call pre seems ok, especially since both prior callers had at least $300 in front so can play a multiway pot with position.

Flop (45) - As5s4c. V leads out $35. Folds to H who calls.

My thought is that V probably has an A, or a good pocket pair. Don't think he leads with a draw into 3 people. My thinking on the call is that my draw is pretty disguised (if I hit a non-spade) and I can bluff if the flush comes in and I don't hit my straight.

Thoughts on flop play?

Turn is Ts completing the flush draw. V looks annoyed and checks. H is going to continue plan and bet. Thoughts on sizing? $110 in pot with V having about $170 back.

I fold flop. Another spade kills your hand or your action, so that reduces your actual outs by a ton, even though it gives you bluff outs. Your draw isn't a bit disguised. 36 would be disguised. You really don't have a ton of IOs.

Turn is nice. He has invited you to steal the pot. If he had bet here, you would have to turbo-muck, even though he likely doesn't have the flush, as a bet would commit him, so you'd have little shot at buying it. Now it is on sale cheap. I go 60-70, setting up an implied river shove.

Well played and good use of the button. I'd call the flop since you close the action and have plenty of real outs and bluff outs.

The sizing is a little awkward since villain isn't really deep enough for two barrels. I think betting $60 and saving $110 for a river shove is best. You have a ton of leverage with your $60 bet and should get a fair amount of folds. Theoretically, villain is pot committed when calling the turn. He might peel one off with AxKs or something like that and fold non-spade rivers. You still have real outs when called since he almost never has a made flush here.

Like the call pre, we love seeing cheap flops in position.

When V leads out, this looks like AK all day. Don't think he bets into 4 players with KK-TT here. I like the plan to call and bluff spade turns, esp. against scared money V. I think I make a small but scary stack-committing bet - maybe $45 into the $115 pot.

He'll call $45, which only bloats the pot and gives a river shove less ooomph.

Jam turn.

Am I wrong to generally think 2-card straight draws are reasonably disguised and offer good IOs? Maybe I'm projecting, but I have a hard time putting people on two card straights and am more likely to pay off when the straight comes in than when the flush comes in.

The way I was thinking about the flop play was that I had 6 outs to the nuts where I could probably expect to get paid at least one more reasonably sized bet, and maybe even stack V, 2 outs to a straight that also make a flush where I think I win the pot but am going to struggle to get paid (maybe a smallish river bet) and 7 more outs to a hand I can bluff with. Finally, a non-spade 7 or 6 gives me 4 more cards that allow me to make two pair or trips on the river and beat V if he's on a pure bluff (which I admittedly think is pretty unlikely). So my plan was bet any non-spade 8 or 3. On a 8s or 3s I'd probably check back if he checked to me, or gii if he bet into me. On any other spade, I bet if checked to and evaluate if bet into (usually folding unless getting odds because when he leads turn he's generally committed). On any other card I check if checked to and evaluate if bet into (but again usually folding unless getting odds). Given my read on V I don't think he follows up with a second barrel all the time when a blank comes if he has an A, so I may get to see a free river if the turn is a blank.

In terms of turn play, I saw two options:

1. Bet smaller, and follow up generally with a river shove if called; or
2. Bet bigger, but give up on river if called (unless I spike my straight).

Benefit of 2 is that I lose less when V decides to station down, and I avoid accidentally getting him committed with a small bet on the turn such that he feels like he has to call the river on a blank. Main benefits of 1 is that if he has Ax where x is a good spade, he may call turn and fold river on a blank, and when that happens I win his turn bet too. Principal downside of 1 is that if I actually had a flush, I'd probably play it that way hoping to string him along and get paid off.

I ended up going for #2 and bet $80 on turn. Plan was definitely to give up on river if called. Seems like shoving is overkill, there aren't that many hands that are folding to a shove that aren't folding to $80 I think, and I save $90 when I run into the top of his range (he could have AT) or he just decides to be a station. However, probably could have gotten the same results by betting $65 or 70, as from V's perspective each of those bets carries with them the same threat of shoving river.

I think you are. An OESD is only only less out than a FD. Really bad Vs may not notice that a straight is possible, whereas a third flush card kind of smacks you in the face. There might be a touch better IOs vs. very bad Vs, but really the only reason a flush draw is more likely is that people like to play suited crap, so there are more FD combos in an average range than connector combos (especially since OS connectors are often folded pre).

The above logic actually validates OP's point that cards that complete an open-ended straight draw are more disguised than the flush. Inexperienced players know to "look out" for the third suit card, but they are not nearly as likely to look for a straight unless the board is 4 to a straight. Like you said, it mostly comes down to the fact that more flushes are going to showdown than straights. V's are also more likely to play suited cards themselves. Flushes are much more in the general V's awareness than a straight.

I think OP made a great play. After the flop, OP has so much equity in the pot its ridiculous. He can credibly rep the flush (9 outs), and make a straight (8) outs. OP may even be able to rep trips if the board pairs (6 outs) against a weak tight V who checks to him.

Additionally, he has more fold equity when he reps the flush, and has more implied odds when he hits his straight and gets paid off atleast one more street from V.

This is such a juicy spot, I think we are giving up EV by folding the flop.

If we don't bluff here, then I think we shouldn't have called flop, and if we take Garick's advice to fold flop, we really should have folded pre, since we're almost never flopping better than this.

Pre is marginal but defensible, flop is a definite call (there's no chance this guy figures it out when we jam on an 8), and turn is a spot where we must bluff. I'm betting smallish turn and jamming river. The problem with jamming or making a big bet is that you will often run into a hand like AQ with the ace of spades, and if you bet small you can win a bigger pot when you bluff the river.

Ace of spades is on the board, but presumably the point is the same with the AK or AQ with the Ks or Qs.

Very much disagree about pre, because we have position and two other callers. Pre is always a call, imo.

Agree that turn is a good spot to bluff, as I said in my first post.

Flop is debatable. Given his nitty nature, I like the bluff outs idea more than I did at first, but I like calling to hit the straight less.

Nitty players notice when OESDs hit. Bad players might not, but not anyone who could be described as weak/tight.

My whole point about OE straights made from connectors is that they are not disguised. The do sometimes go unnoticed, but only the very worst players ever show down against what was an OESD above two connected cards OTF that hit and say "I didn't even notice that a straight was possible." They may not have thought the straight was likely, but they're not blindsided by it. This happens all the time with a hand like 79 on a 68K board, though.

Pretty much all this post flop


Also, depending on how nitty V is, I might be inclined to 3! pre. I'd love to take down 18bb without seeing a flop. If V calls we have good equity against most hands and it's doubtful a nitty V calls with anything that we don't have 2 live cards against. I'm always at least calling pre though.

Yeah, I meant Ks.

Grunch. The only thing about this hand is I'd like us to be deeper to make this play. I wanna raise all non K or Q turn cards and if he bets the turn he's not deep enough to fold. Lucky for us he checked, but if he check calls the turn he's not going to have enough left to fold to a river barrel, which would be my plan if we were deeper. AP, just bet 100 OTT and expect him to fold often. He shouldn't have many flushes in his range with the As on the board. If he ships it I think he's prob just deciding to go to the felt with AK/AQ and we just gotta call for 70 more and hope to suck out.

great spot to bluff. the other two opponents obviously didn't have a spades draw which makes the likelyhood of you having one that much more plausible. and scared money hates to just hero call. ever.

85 seems about right.

I like these plays against regs ... PF, Flop and Turn. I might go a little cheaper on the Turn, like maybe $55-65. Hero bet $35 on Flop and I like to be close (but not quite) to double that if I follow that up on the Turn here. $80 gives off a little bit of a bluffy nature to me, but you have to know your V. $55 may be enough for him to draw to a 4-flush or 'test you' on the River by just sticking around.

Always respect for Garick, but I think when you have the 'nut' OESD draw it's pretty hard to spot when the high side hits for a lot of players, especially when a flush draw is out there as well as a distraction, more so than 'every other' OESD when you use 1-gappers. Obviously whenever a card hits the board that directly connects with another card (or 2) most players will spot this .. and it depends on how the board is laid out as well.

I like the hand as long as you have a comfortable history with V and can trust the live tell you mentioned as well. Certainly 2 factors have to come into play:
1) Will I get paid off by this V if I hit my hand ..
2) Can V 'see' the board for gremlins as well to generate enough folds on the Turn to warrant bloating the pot in lieu of taking the free card.

I do see many V c/c a lot of Rivers here, so the Turn is the time to strike IMO. If you had held higher ranking flush cards you may have 3-bet PF, so it makes sense to protect your small flush by betting out here once the other players fold out. GL

Results - I bet $80 on turn and V folds. Says he folded a good Ace.