Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-12-2020, 06:48 PM   #2426
Axel Foley
old hand
 
Axel Foley's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: DC
Posts: 1,460
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

And for the "But what about the economy?" crowd, here's the outcome we get for our businesses when reopening isn't done properly. This is a bar in New Orleans.

Axel Foley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2020, 11:41 PM   #2427
OvertlySexual
old hand
 
OvertlySexual's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,310
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

FWIW, when I said the probability of being dead was between 1-3%, I was going off my head and I hadn't checked this question since April. The probability of dying could be as high as 3% if you are elderly or belong in a vulnerable group.

I did some googling on this and I thought this article by Nature that came out last month gave the most complete picture of where we are:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2
Quote:

Some of the first indications of the virus’s deadliness were gleaned from the total number of confirmed cases in China. In late February, the World Health Organization crudely estimated that 38 people had died for every 1,000 with confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses. The death rate among these people — known as the case fatality rate (CFR) — reached as high as 58 out of 1,000 in Wuhan, the city where the virus emerged. But such estimates exaggerated the disease’s deadliness because they did not account for the many people who had the virus but were not tested, obscuring the outbreak’s true spread.


Researchers tried to address this gap by estimating the IFR from models that projected the virus’s spread. The result from these early analyses hovered around 0.9% — 9 deaths for every 1,000 people infected — with a broader range of 0.4–3.6%, says Verity. His own modelling estimated an overall IFR for China of 7 deaths for every 1,000 people infected, increasing to 33 per thousand among those aged 60 or older1.
Quote:

Antibody surveys

Widespread population surveys that test people for antibodies to the virus, known as seroprevalence surveys, were expected to help refine IFR estimates even further. About 120 seroprevalence surveys are under way worldwide.

But results from the first antibody studies only muddied the water, suggesting that the virus was less deadly than previously thought. “It got a bit messy,” says Russell.

One of the earliest studies tested 919 people in the German town of Gangelt, where a large outbreak had occurred3. Of these people, about 15.5% had antibodies against the virus — five times higher than the percentage of people known to have had COVID-19 in the town at the time. The figure was used to estimate an IFR of 0.28%. But researchers noted that the study was based on a relatively small number of people.

Other early seroprevalence studies did not properly account for the lack of sensitivity and specificity in the antibody test kits that were used, or for discrepancies between the sampled and underlying populations, says Verity.


These issues could have inflated estimates of the total number of infected people and so made the virus seem less deadly, he says. Equally, if COVID-19 deaths go undetected — a problem in many countries that aren’t testing all deceased people for the virus — that, too, can bias the fatality rate, says Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist and PhD candidate at the University of Wollongong, Australia.

Some larger seroprevalence studies have emerged in recent weeks, and these estimate a higher fatality rate than do early studies. One survey4, posted on medRxiv, of more than 25,000 people across Brazil, estimated an IFR of 1%.

Another survey that tested more than 60,000 people across Spain reports a prevalence of 5%, although the results have not been formally analysed. The survey team did not calculate a fatality rate themselves, but on the basis of the results, Verity estimates that Spain has an IFR of around 1% — or 10 deaths for every 1,000 infected individuals.

Several researchers, including Russell and Verity, find it interesting that a growing number of studies from different regions have estimated IFRs in the range of 0.5–1%. But other scientists are cautious about suggestions of agreement. “The trend is potentially more luck than anything else,” says Meyerowitz-Katz.

Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California, Santa Cruz, also notes that most of the serological data haven’t been published in scientific manuscripts. It’s hard to know when and how they were collected, and to properly calculate an IFR that accounts for the delay between people getting infected and dying, he says.

Kilpatrick and others say they are eagerly awaiting large studies that estimate fatality rates across age groups and among those with pre-existing health conditions, which will provide the most accurate picture of how deadly the disease is. One of the first studies to account for the effect of age was posted on a preprint server last week. The study, based on seroprevalence data from Geneva, Switzerland, estimates an IFR of 0.6% for the total population, and an IFR of 5.6% for people aged 65 and older.

The results have not been peer reviewed, but Kilpatrick says the study addresses many of the issues in previous seroprevalence surveys. "This study is fantastic. It’s precisely what should be done with all of the serological data," he says.
So really, depending on what you want to see, you can find IFR as low as 0.27% or as high as 1%. The jury is still out.

However, one thing to keep in mind is that this disease is far more infectious that then flu, so that still makes it more deadly.

Also, my point about this disease being a funky spin and go remains. There's uncertainty about the extent and prevalence of nasty lingering side-effects.

Last edited by OvertlySexual; 07-12-2020 at 11:47 PM.
OvertlySexual is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2020, 11:49 PM   #2428
OvertlySexual
old hand
 
OvertlySexual's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,310
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Also:

OvertlySexual is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2020, 11:52 PM   #2429
OvertlySexual
old hand
 
OvertlySexual's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,310
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Deaths are rising again btw. Lagging indicator was lagging.


OvertlySexual is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2020, 05:41 AM   #2430
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 20,759
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

incompetence from security guards in Melbourne Quarantine hotels has helped the virus grow substantially again here. We were getting less than 5 cases a day and itís back up to 250 per day in Melb and itís started spreading again here in Sydney
feel wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2020, 09:32 AM   #2431
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,327
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
Deaths are rising again btw. Lagging indicator was lagging.



Yeah anyone with any sense of disease dynamics or common sense at all would have known an increase was about to happen. Surprise surprise.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2020, 01:59 PM   #2432
nutella virus
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 770
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Regarding australia: what is the local story with the armed quarantine guards at city housing buildings? I hear plenty abt the outsourced guards who slept with covid patients, but have heard little about the armed guards in front of govnt housing. What is going on down there
nutella virus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2020, 05:43 PM   #2433
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 20,759
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus View Post
Regarding australia: what is the local story with the armed quarantine guards at city housing buildings? I hear plenty abt the outsourced guards who slept with covid patients, but have heard little about the armed guards in front of govnt housing. What is going on down there

They basically locked down several high rise towers because Covid was rife in them (while being contained to a few spots around the city) and they didnít want it spreading so they attempted to lock down just the high infection places rather than the entire city

The guards were not only sleeping with the quarantined people in hotels but also sharing cigarettes with them and letting them out for walks etc. and then the guards were also working at pubs and clubs so spread the virus back through the city
feel wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 05:29 PM   #2434
prairiebreeze
veteran
 
prairiebreeze's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Saskatchewan. Don't @ me.
Posts: 2,997
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
thumb

didn't realise you were still so affected by it
Yeah stuff still sucks. My update:

Lost 19 pounds so far. 202 --> 183. (I usually feel my best around 195.) I'm told that this is WAY less than average weight loss.
Effectively homebound aside from walks around the block. Really tired afterwards. I'm used to walking 7-8km/day.
No active COVID symptoms, and no antibodies as of the results I got yesterday.
Masks are my life, but because I do have asthma, they're a first class pain in the ass as it does make breathing harder and that means I tire out even quicker.
Ordering groceries/prescriptions/clothing/everything else online is a pain in the ass too. Could order Tuesday and have delivered Friday but now all the lead times are changing (in both directions) and it's just tilting AF.

The heart issue (mild heart attack brought on by COVID) is improving. Sent the latest batch of data off of this monitor to him and he's happy. He says I can go hit golf balls at the range as long as I wear a mask and take it easy.

This is what progress looks like.
prairiebreeze is online now   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 08:15 PM   #2435
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 20,759
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

are you able to work?
feel wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 11:56 PM   #2436
DeadMoneyWalking
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeadMoneyWalking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Avatar Archive
Posts: 29,365
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze View Post
Yeah stuff still sucks. My update:

Lost 19 pounds so far. 202 --> 183. (I usually feel my best around 195.) I'm told that this is WAY less than average weight loss.
Effectively homebound aside from walks around the block. Really tired afterwards. I'm used to walking 7-8km/day.
No active COVID symptoms, and no antibodies as of the results I got yesterday.
Masks are my life, but because I do have asthma, they're a first class pain in the ass as it does make breathing harder and that means I tire out even quicker.
Ordering groceries/prescriptions/clothing/everything else online is a pain in the ass too. Could order Tuesday and have delivered Friday but now all the lead times are changing (in both directions) and it's just tilting AF.

The heart issue (mild heart attack brought on by COVID) is improving. Sent the latest batch of data off of this monitor to him and he's happy. He says I can go hit golf balls at the range as long as I wear a mask and take it easy.

This is what progress looks like.
So you don't have immunity?
DeadMoneyWalking is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 08:41 AM   #2437
prairiebreeze
veteran
 
prairiebreeze's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Saskatchewan. Don't @ me.
Posts: 2,997
Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Work: working from home during the pandemic has been very lucky for me. Missed 3-4 days with COVID and the week that I was in hospital after my heart attack. Other than that Iíve been working.

Immunity: appears like I donít. Saw a story on tv the other day that some guy in the states got the damn thing twice. Read differing theories on immunity length.

Feels like we know about 5% of what we need to know in order to keep people safe
prairiebreeze is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:07 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online