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Old 05-22-2020, 09:40 AM   #1901
DumbosTrunk
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Don't worry, guys, Florida casinos got this handled: Resume economy-stimulation before November immediately!



(Is it just me, or are the middle and ends seats rather close to each other? And wasn't Vegas proposing 4-max? This looks like 5-max.)

I hear their super anti-viral mega-bionic-flow-tech-air-purifier kills COVID-19 upon impact too. Seems safe to me!

But just in case, they want you to sign a waiver of liability before entering: https://pbkennelclub.com/press-release-reopening/.

I'm booking a one-way plane ticket to Tampa right now.

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Old 05-22-2020, 10:10 AM   #1902
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Can't think of too many things I'd rather do less than this
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:14 AM   #1903
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Recreational hockey team organizer just asked if everyone was up to getting back to playing a game in a couple of weeks; resounding "yes"s from everyone.

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Old 05-22-2020, 01:15 PM   #1904
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Recreational hockey team organizer just asked if everyone was up to getting back to playing a game in a couple of weeks; resounding "yes"s from everyone.

Greturningtomynormallife,I'llletyouknowwhenIgetthe AIDSG
You're not alone: A lot of people are beginning to feel cabin fever catching up to them and are willing to risk it. I might even go to a private home game tomorrow, for the first time since the shutdown started (with an N95 of course). Am I crazy?

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Old 05-22-2020, 02:28 PM   #1905
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Last few times I've entered a building I am the only one wearing a mask, even among the other olds. It's like people assume the virus got bored as well.
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Old 05-22-2020, 02:28 PM   #1906
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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You're not alone: A lot of people are beginning to feel cabin fever catching up to them and are willing to risk it. I might even go to a private home game tomorrow, for the first time since the shutdown started (with an N95 of course). Am I crazy?
Overall, I'm less fence sitting now and more in the "we overreacted" camp. I'm also perturbed that this will no doubt leave a long standing social / mental / etc. scar on most people / how we move forward with our lives / etc. (not to even begin to mention the financial woes), something the last generation that had to deal with this (Hong Kong Flu of 1968/1969, wow, who knew, I didn't) did not have to deal with.

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Old 05-22-2020, 02:42 PM   #1907
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

"We overreacted" because lockdowns worked, so the model estimates approximating the best-case scenarios ended up begin most accurate.



And yet new case numbers continue to rise pretty much everyplace restrictions were relaxed.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:02 PM   #1908
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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"We overreacted" because lockdowns worked, so the model estimates approximating the best-case scenarios ended up begin most accurate.



And yet new case numbers continue to rise pretty much everyplace restrictions were relaxed.
I don't think we overreacted either; I think the initial containment response was actually rather lackluster in the U.S. The efforts that have been imposed so far have saved thousands of lives, but many more deaths could have been avoided with more aggressive action by those in power. Those states that are already opening venues like casinos are acting prematurely.

By the same token, cases are going to rise as we eventually relax restrictions. An uptick in cases and deaths is inevitable. Yet despite this harsh reality, no one credibly argues that we should stay quarantined until a vaccine is available and widely distributed, do they? I don't think the majority of people are willing to remain locked down for another year or more even if it means more people die. The shock was that many people were not even willing to close to begin with, when the threat was greatest. But now that we have sacrificed a good chunk of freedom and helped achieve the goal -- to flatten the curve -- many more people are going to expect something in return.

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Old 05-22-2020, 03:08 PM   #1909
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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I don't think we overreacted either; I think the containment response was actually rather lackluster in the U.S. The efforts that have been imposed so far have saved thousands of lives.

By the same token, cases are going to rise as we eventually relax restrictions. An uptick in cases and deaths is inevitable. Yet despite this harsh reality, no one credibly argues that we should stay quarantined until a vaccine is available and widely distributed, do they? I don't think the majority of people are willing to remain locked down for another year or more.

I don't think we disagree much at all on this, but I am 100% certain that we'll see a clear correlation between the ****-it-all states that swing the doors wide open and new case rates.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:18 PM   #1910
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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"We overreacted" because lockdowns worked, so the model estimates approximating the best-case scenarios ended up begin most accurate.



And yet new case numbers continue to rise pretty much everyplace restrictions were relaxed.
I think the lockdown likely worked in the sense that they prevented more deaths, but I'm not convinced the cost of the cure is worth it. We could also likely reduce the overall death rate of pretty much everything by mandating people stay at home.

Gcluelesspros/consnoobG
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:50 PM   #1911
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Whether or not we over-reacted is completely subjective unless everyone can agree on the metrics to judge outcomes.

Since it's related and I'm annoyed at people (not replying to anyone in particular and not sure if anyone has talked about this in the thread) being anti-lockdown is not anti-science because the science doesn't support lockdowns. Science is amoral and can't make policy decisions on its own. The best it can do is help us predict and understand the effects different policy decisions may have.

So the people that say we should "listen to the experts/science" supporting a lockdown are wrong. Not because we shouldn't listen to them, but because science can't make value judgements.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:08 PM   #1912
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Since when is 'minimizing mortality' a judgment call?

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Old 05-22-2020, 06:08 PM   #1913
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Since that day called "always"

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I don't think we overreacted either; I think the initial containment response was actually rather lackluster in the U.S. The efforts that have been imposed so far have saved thousands of lives, but many more deaths could have been avoided with more aggressive action by those in power. Those states that are already opening venues like casinos are acting prematurely.

By the same token, cases are going to rise as we eventually relax restrictions. An uptick in cases and deaths is inevitable. Yet despite this harsh reality, no one credibly argues that we should stay quarantined until a vaccine is available and widely distributed, do they? I don't think the majority of people are willing to remain locked down for another year or more even if it means more people die. The shock was that many people were not even willing to close to begin with, when the threat was greatest. But now that we have sacrificed a good chunk of freedom and helped achieve the goal -- to flatten the curve -- many more people are going to expect something in return.
I think Cov-2 was a medium strength pandemic and therefore our 3/4-assed measures were appropriately proportionate.
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:22 PM   #1914
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Since when is 'minimizing mortality' a judgment call?

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(even) you aren't dumb enough to make that argument.

decision makers in the military, healthcare, welfare all all other kinds of welfare etc are faced with multifaceted decisions where ultimately a line has to be drawn around acceptable death rates
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:44 PM   #1915
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Since that day called "always"



I think Cov-2 was a medium strength pandemic and therefore our 3/4-assed measures were appropriately proportionate.
I disagree; full-assed was the way to go.
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:45 PM   #1916
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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"We overreacted" because lockdowns worked, so the model estimates approximating the best-case scenarios ended up begin most accurate.
They worked in some places like China, South Korea, and Australia. I'd say they failed by quite a large degree in the US.

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But now that we have sacrificed a good chunk of freedom and helped achieve the goal -- to flatten the curve -- many more people are going to expect something in return.
We achieved the goal of flattening the curve? I look at the curve every single day. It is not flat. Nowhere close. It appears to be flattening in some places like New York and New Jersey but even there it's still not yet flat. Flattening the curve is what places like Australia and South Korea did and they did it in short order.

A 1 month lockdown was supposed to flatten the curve and that didn't happen. Here in Dallas the lockdown started 2 months ago. Our curve hasn't flattened one bit. If anything, I'd expect it to start steepening.

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You're not alone: A lot of people are beginning to feel cabin fever catching up to them and are willing to risk it. I might even go to a private home game tomorrow, for the first time since the shutdown started (with an N95 of course). Am I crazy?
It seems a bit foolish. Depending where you are, it may have been smarter to do this a month ago rather than now when cases are likely to ramp up.
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:04 PM   #1917
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Since when is 'minimizing mortality' a judgment call?

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If this were the metric for making every decision, your wife would leave you locked in the house all day every day. She certainly would not allow you to go to the casino which dramatically increases your likelihood of the big one one
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:32 PM   #1918
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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If this were the metric for making every decision, your wife would leave you locked in the house all day every day. She certainly would not allow you to go to the casino which dramatically increases your likelihood of the big one one

Or maybe....
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:01 PM   #1919
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Or maybe....


I guess we could check and see if she had recently increased his life insurance coverage
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:56 PM   #1920
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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They worked in some places like China, South Korea, and Australia. I'd say they failed by quite a large degree in the US.



We achieved the goal of flattening the curve? I look at the curve every single day. It is not flat. Nowhere close. It appears to be flattening in some places like New York and New Jersey but even there it's still not yet flat. Flattening the curve is what places like Australia and South Korea did and they did it in short order.

A 1 month lockdown was supposed to flatten the curve and that didn't happen. Here in Dallas the lockdown started 2 months ago. Our curve hasn't flattened one bit. If anything, I'd expect it to start steepening.



It seems a bit foolish. Depending where you are, it may have been smarter to do this a month ago rather than now when cases are likely to ramp up.
Obviously it was going to curve upwards with testing volume. It's been flattened enough that hospitals weren't overwhelmed and bodies didn't pile up in the funeral home parking lot; dire predictions that were not unreasonable back in the beginning.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:38 PM   #1921
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Brazil has done a partial closedown but barely enforced and by all accounts, very few people are following it.

Their numbers have rocketed and we’ll probably see what a relatively unchecked curve looks like with them
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:42 PM   #1922
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Brazil has done a partial closedown but barely enforced and by all accounts, very few people are following it.

Their numbers have rocketed and we’ll probably see what a relatively unchecked curve looks like with them
I think we already saw that with Italy early on. But just in case we can always count on Florida.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:52 PM   #1923
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Obviously it was going to curve upwards with testing volume. It's been flattened enough that hospitals weren't overwhelmed and bodies didn't pile up in the funeral home parking lot; dire predictions that were not unreasonable back in the beginning.
Flattened isn't the word I would use. I'd say slowed. Perhaps it will flatten soon but you and I both live in states where it's still shooting towards the moon.

We had close to a hundred thousand die in the US during this lockdown. It was a half-ass lockdown and it produced half-ass results. Having people stay home from work but then allowing them to pack Walmart like sardines is not my idea of an effective lockdown.
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:20 AM   #1924
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

Are we talking about the same curve? The newly discovered cases curve is bouncing like a cosine but trending downward.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:17 AM   #1925
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Re: Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

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Are we talking about the same curve? The newly discovered cases curve is bouncing like a cosine but trending downward.
It doesn't get shown much, but the daily death and infection rate data does show a signficant downward trend. Even given that the testing rate is far higher today than it was a month ago. Eyeballing the curves, it looks like the rates are about 1/2 they were at the peak.
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