Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread
11-23-2020
, 05:19 PM
11-23-2020
, 05:46 PM
11-23-2020
, 06:04 PM
11-23-2020
, 06:15 PM
GcluelessbusinessmannoobG
11-23-2020
, 06:28 PM
Quote:
this isn't really true. there are far more valuable interactions that happen when you're in the same room as people, both in the meeting and also before and afterwards. Just like so much of the effectiveness of an executive or a manager come in the more informal interactions they have with colleagues, team, clients etc.
and as a salesperson/business developer, the 'I'm going to be in your suburb/city/country...can we meet up' is by far the best excuse to secure a meeting and way more effective than any other method.
this year will definitely encourage people/companies to re-evaluate their travel and I do think it'll reduce moving forward...in the same way that companies will reduce their office/premises footprints moving forward...but a good portion of it will re-instate.
personally I've taken about $30k off my business cost base this year by not travelling, but I suspect most of it will go back on by 2022
and as a salesperson/business developer, the 'I'm going to be in your suburb/city/country...can we meet up' is by far the best excuse to secure a meeting and way more effective than any other method.
this year will definitely encourage people/companies to re-evaluate their travel and I do think it'll reduce moving forward...in the same way that companies will reduce their office/premises footprints moving forward...but a good portion of it will re-instate.
personally I've taken about $30k off my business cost base this year by not travelling, but I suspect most of it will go back on by 2022
Quote:
Preamble
Please find below a quick summary of Ivor Cummings' work. I tried my best to stay as close to the source material as possible, but added some additional links to support some of his work that wasn't fully referenced, and used his twitter account to get additional graphs and explanations. But as far as the content below is concerned, my input has been minimal; consider me as a glorified secretary.
Disclaimer: I am biased towards Ivor Cummings' works. I have watched many of his YouTube videos. I have bought his book. I have made donations to him. I don't have a science degree.
Note 1: Ignore the red dots in the screenshots. It is a mouse cursor highlighter.
Note 2: All words or sentences between double quotes " are direct citations from Ivor Cummings himself.
The seasonality of the virus
Let's start with some similarities between the flu and Covid-19.
It has been known for a while that Covid-19 is a seasonal virus following a pattern very similar to influenza. In Europe (northern temperate), the risk of dying of Covid-19 follows a Gompertz curve (article):
This is true of all epidemics, such as the Spanish Flu:
The seasonality of the flu can be seen every year (look at the bump around January):
Covid-19 is a "cold" virus belonging to the coronavirus family so its seasonality somewhat matches the flu season:
Using the book 'The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza', the seasonality in the southern hemisphere is different from the seasonality in northern temperate areas. In northern temperate, a virus like the flu is only active during the winter. In tropical climates, the virus is present all year long but the curve is less 'high':
Let's observe examples for Covid-19. The death reached 12 per million per day in Italy (northern temperate) but fell sharply after the peak. But Peru and Brazil (tropical/sub-tropical) had a slower and steadier rise in death. It fell from August but smoothly, not sharply as it was the case in Italy:
[*]Do you know anyone who died of Covid-19? Among your family, friends and colleagues? Do you know anyone who knows someone who died of Covid-19? Do you actually know someone who had it? Almost all of you will answer 'no' to the first two questions and some of you to all 3 questions; this is how rare it is.
[*] Covid-19 deaths are driven by seasonality, not by people locking down or wearing face masks.[*] Ignore cases/infections. They are scare tactics to impose restrictions on the population.[*] There is no second wave. Epidemics have one big wave then the virus becomes endemic with a smaller seasonal impact. [*] Beware of numbers reported by the mainstream media.[*] Covid-19 mortality is similar to a bad flu season. [/LIST]
Preamble
Please find below a quick summary of Ivor Cummings' work. I tried my best to stay as close to the source material as possible, but added some additional links to support some of his work that wasn't fully referenced, and used his twitter account to get additional graphs and explanations. But as far as the content below is concerned, my input has been minimal; consider me as a glorified secretary.
Disclaimer: I am biased towards Ivor Cummings' works. I have watched many of his YouTube videos. I have bought his book. I have made donations to him. I don't have a science degree.
Note 1: Ignore the red dots in the screenshots. It is a mouse cursor highlighter.
Note 2: All words or sentences between double quotes " are direct citations from Ivor Cummings himself.
The seasonality of the virus
Let's start with some similarities between the flu and Covid-19.
It has been known for a while that Covid-19 is a seasonal virus following a pattern very similar to influenza. In Europe (northern temperate), the risk of dying of Covid-19 follows a Gompertz curve (article):
This is true of all epidemics, such as the Spanish Flu:
The seasonality of the flu can be seen every year (look at the bump around January):
Covid-19 is a "cold" virus belonging to the coronavirus family so its seasonality somewhat matches the flu season:
Using the book 'The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza', the seasonality in the southern hemisphere is different from the seasonality in northern temperate areas. In northern temperate, a virus like the flu is only active during the winter. In tropical climates, the virus is present all year long but the curve is less 'high':
Let's observe examples for Covid-19. The death reached 12 per million per day in Italy (northern temperate) but fell sharply after the peak. But Peru and Brazil (tropical/sub-tropical) had a slower and steadier rise in death. It fell from August but smoothly, not sharply as it was the case in Italy:
[*]Do you know anyone who died of Covid-19? Among your family, friends and colleagues? Do you know anyone who knows someone who died of Covid-19? Do you actually know someone who had it? Almost all of you will answer 'no' to the first two questions and some of you to all 3 questions; this is how rare it is.
[*] Covid-19 deaths are driven by seasonality, not by people locking down or wearing face masks.[*] Ignore cases/infections. They are scare tactics to impose restrictions on the population.[*] There is no second wave. Epidemics have one big wave then the virus becomes endemic with a smaller seasonal impact. [*] Beware of numbers reported by the mainstream media.[*] Covid-19 mortality is similar to a bad flu season. [/LIST]
and yes I know someone who died from it.
11-23-2020
, 10:03 PM
11-23-2020
, 10:06 PM
11-25-2020
, 12:10 AM
11-25-2020
, 03:20 AM
11-25-2020
, 03:39 AM