And for the "But what about the economy?" crowd, here's the outcome we get for our businesses when reopening isn't done properly. This is a bar in New Orleans.

FWIW, when I said the probability of being dead was between 1-3%, I was going off my head and I hadn't checked this question since April. The probability of dying could be as high as 3% if you are elderly or belong in a vulnerable group.

I did some googling on this and I thought this article by Nature that came out last month gave the most complete picture of where we are:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2
So really, depending on what you want to see, you can find IFR as low as 0.27% or as high as 1%. The jury is still out.

However, one thing to keep in mind is that this disease is far more infectious that then flu, so that still makes it more deadly.

Also, my point about this disease being a funky spin and go remains. There's uncertainty about the extent and prevalence of nasty lingering side-effects.

Also:



What a policy triumph.

Deaths are rising again btw. Lagging indicator was lagging.

incompetence from security guards in Melbourne Quarantine hotels has helped the virus grow substantially again here. We were getting less than 5 cases a day and it’s back up to 250 per day in Melb and it’s started spreading again here in Sydney

Yeah anyone with any sense of disease dynamics or common sense at all would have known an increase was about to happen. Surprise surprise.

Regarding australia: what is the local story with the armed quarantine guards at city housing buildings? I hear plenty abt the outsourced guards who slept with covid patients, but have heard little about the armed guards in front of govnt housing. What is going on down there

They basically locked down several high rise towers because Covid was rife in them (while being contained to a few spots around the city) and they didn’t want it spreading so they attempted to lock down just the high infection places rather than the entire city

The guards were not only sleeping with the quarantined people in hotels but also sharing cigarettes with them and letting them out for walks etc. and then the guards were also working at pubs and clubs so spread the virus back through the city

Yeah stuff still sucks. My update:

Lost 19 pounds so far. 202 --> 183. (I usually feel my best around 195.) I'm told that this is WAY less than average weight loss.
Effectively homebound aside from walks around the block. Really tired afterwards. I'm used to walking 7-8km/day.
No active COVID symptoms, and no antibodies as of the results I got yesterday.
Masks are my life, but because I do have asthma, they're a first class pain in the ass as it does make breathing harder and that means I tire out even quicker.
Ordering groceries/prescriptions/clothing/everything else online is a pain in the ass too. Could order Tuesday and have delivered Friday but now all the lead times are changing (in both directions) and it's just tilting AF.

The heart issue (mild heart attack brought on by COVID) is improving. Sent the latest batch of data off of this monitor to him and he's happy. He says I can go hit golf balls at the range as long as I wear a mask and take it easy.

This is what progress looks like.

are you able to work?

So you don't have immunity?

Work: working from home during the pandemic has been very lucky for me. Missed 3-4 days with COVID and the week that I was in hospital after my heart attack. Other than that I’ve been working.

Immunity: appears like I don’t. Saw a story on tv the other day that some guy in the states got the damn thing twice. Read differing theories on immunity length.

Feels like we know about 5% of what we need to know in order to keep people safe

Have those guards faced any discipline? Or are they back on the streets keeping covid at bay

Unions bruh.

Michigan man used prosthetic face mask to pose as elderly casino patron and stole over 100k
https://www.foxnews.com/us/michigan-...g-casinos-feds

I actually wore a mask for the first time yesterday (during a visit to my chiropractor). Kinda a pain in the ass when wearing glasses as they were fogged up the whole time.

Still surprised masks haven't been mandated as necessary wearing in indoor public spaces here yet. Especially since other small parts of the country I believe have (let alone lots of places in our supposed much crazier neighbours down below). I find it odd that one of the excuses those in charge use here is that mandating it would stigmatize those who can't effectively wear them; what, that same reasoning doesn't apply elsewhere? Or when the policy will undoubtedly eventually be brought in? Just another in a long list of wishy washy flip/flopping that doesn't exactly install a lot of confidence in what the "experts" think.

GstillrockingthecovidhairG

Tape a pipe cleaner as a nose bridge, gg Works well....and when it doesn't just put your glasses up and over mask by a little.

((My company makes aluminum bridges for masks since March. 100K and counting))

GG, i have the same issue cause i gotta look suave with shades on

the problem is your mask in particular not masks in general

you gotta try different brands, some fit snugly and your glasses won't fog up, but in the meantime if you pull up you mask a bit and rest your glasses a little more forward than they'd normally be that'll clear right up

but seriously, two masks that look totally similar on a store shelf will have very different snugness on the nose, next time you see someone with glasses on and a mask just ask which brand they got if their lenses aren't all cloudy

RIfeelyourpainandthere'sasolutionbroR

Yeah, I ain't too concerned about it. I have two masks so the next time I'm in a position whether a mask is mandatory I'll try the other one to see if that's an improvement. But in the end foggy glass for the ~15 minutes I'm in a place that requires a mask ain't gonna be a dealbreaker for me.

GinafogG

Covid is a fat shaming virus.

https://news.yahoo.com/obesity-incre...230703441.html

PHE said data showed that for people with a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30-35, risk of death from COVID-19 increased by 40%, and it increased by 90% for those with a BMI over 40 compared to those of a healthy weight.

also a drunk and stoopid shaming virus

https://www.the-sun.com/news/1134404...itive-ability/


thus making Dean Wormer quite the prophet

one of the movie world's greatest lines

Followed up with "Face it, kid, you threw up on Dean Wormer."

Classics make every line a classic. Even characters with no lines have classic expressions

Covid and Prairie's

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/...b5ad-152128386

Their average age was 49 and two-thirds of the patients had recovered at home. More than two months later, infected patients were more likely to have troubling cardiac signs than people in the control group: 78 patients showed structural changes to their hearts, 76 had evidence of a biomarker signaling cardiac injury typically found after a heart attack, and 60 had signs of inflammation.