2/3 live.

Hero LJ ($325 effective) has only been at the table for 1.5 hours. Played a few hands but pretty card dead.

V1 UTG+2 MAWG. has been pretty passive. He opened AJ and folded to a $60 jam and limped T7s.

V2 BB. Old white guy. Hasn't really played a hand. Maybe some limps.

Table in general is very tight and passive.

V1 opens to $6... hero raises to $17 in the LJ with AdQh and v2 and v1 calls.

Flop 8s2s2c.

Pot $46

Checks to me. So first decision is if I bet or check. I continue for $30, V2 folds and v1 calls.

I think I like betting here since a lot of their range misses this flop and I'm rarely getting bluff raised by these villains. If I range villains preflop as having A2-AJs AJo, 22-99 suited connectors, suited broadway, and KJo/QJo then they have about 155 combos of hands going into the flop. If they call with a 2, a pair, an 8, a flush draw, 88, 99 then they are only calling with 38 combos. I will have about 33 percent equity against this range.

I do pretty well against some of the weaker hands that they could also call with like AT bd flush draw, KQ bdfd, etc.

Turn: Qd

Pot:116

Hero bets 70 villain calls.

Pot: $256

River: Kh

Villain donks for $175

So he gets here with K9-KQss and a couple combos of KQcc and KsQx. I don't know if he bets K9-KJ. He has 22, 88 for 4 more combos. He might also have A2s. He then has about 19 combos of missed flushes.

So he doesn't have much value, he would have had to slowplayed A2. I also don't know how thinly he is value betting a king here.

Is this a clear call since I don't have much history on villain? He has played pretty passively so far but as I've said it's only been 1.5 hours.

Idk if he's more likely to donk his value or his bluffs. I do have a lot of check backs here but I don't know if he's thinking on that level.

Check turn. We gained SDV, can't stand up to a c/r, probably shouldn't be going for 3 streets, and it keeps all our air-balls in our range. If he leads river we can bluff catch or b/f for value if checked to.

I see a lot of posters betting OTT when IP with hands that want to get to showdown.

AP a passive player just donked 3/4 psb OTR. I think we can fold here as this is rarely a bluff and very often (from a passive V) 22 or 88, but I would tank for a while to see how he feels. Sometimes you gotta soul read.

I think both betting and checking the turn are fine. Betting gets some value from flush draws and maybe a stubborn call from 99-JJ so I think it probably makes the most sense. Getting check raised isn't a real concern because we aren't really sacrificing any equity when we bet/fold turn. When we get check raised we always have two outs, so folding is not a horrible scenario.

River's a fold. I know it is rough to lay down a pair but people just don't bluff here. Kxss is the worst hand he's betting here.

+1

Never checking this turn. Never calling this river vs this guy

What do you make of a minraise preflop? In my game this is typically a juicer with a speculative hand, although sometimes it is a trickier player attempting to induce a 3bet. This guy doesn't sound tricky, so to me it looks like a juicer. I'd probably also 3bet (although I don't think flatting is horrible), although I'd typically 3bet *way* more; you gave him ~30:1 IO to see a flop with likely a speculative hand where we'll likely only end up with TP, not a great result. Also, $17 is often less than a typical open at my table, let alone a 3bet. With this hand, we're actually pretty cool with taking down $10 uncontested preflop, imo.

Do people cold call 3bets (even small ones) a lot? Would kinda worry me when the tight guy does, although it's still for such a lol amount that I wouldn't be too worried. I'd probably also cbet the flop, but for probably only 1/2 PSB. AK could easily be in the mix and will likely fold; we *might* get a tightish fit/folder setminer to fold. Otherwise we likely get ourselves to the river for cheap.

When a guy juices the pot preflop and then calls this flop, I'm a little worried; it's possible he smashed the hand he was going for. So I check back the turn. At this point, we only lose value from flush draws, and we might eke out another bet against a stubborn pair putting us on AK on the river (who will likely fold to the double barrel).

Alarm bells should be ringing all over the place when he calls another big on the turn. What, we really think he's just on a flush draw at this point? We are building way too big a pot for way too weak a hand, imo.

I fold the river. You said yourself this guy is passive and now he's donking almost 2 stacks of reds on the river with a busted flush draw against a 3better who just barrelled 2 streets and is playing his hand like AA/KK (which is more-or-less what we have)? No, he's not. Kxss is the absolute bottom of his range, imo, and he probably just check/calls that. I'll be accused of being MUBSy, but his most likely hands are 88 and 22, imo.

GcaptainofthegoodshipMUBSyG

since when is AQ a weak hand as the 3-bettor in a 3b pot on 822Q? don't check the turn.

river is villain specific but probably folding vs this sizing

i think you're beat, i think he has a K but could be sneaky with 2 combo

What worse hands are you attempting to get 2 more bets out of?

GcluelessNLnoobG

33-77; 99-TT/JJ; some 8xs, and spade combos.

what hands are you worried we lose to? 88, 22, and A2s? aka 6 combos?

I realize this is image dependent, but it sounds like we haven't played many hands thanks to being card dead and now we've just 3bet preflop and bet the flop 3ways. We think we're getting 2 more streets from most of those hands we're ahead of? With the exception of protecting against the flush draw (who will only hit 1 in 5 times and might attempt a river bluff when he whiffs if we weakly check back the turn), I don't.

I'm not necessarily worried about being behind when I bet. I'm worried how often a worse hand calls two more bets versus a better one given this action on this board. Basically, if you get called on two more streets, you're more-or-less (a) playing against a ****** if he shows up with a worse hand or (b) just ran into one of those ~6 better combos.

Gjustme?G

You are probably right about getting three streets of value from this hand. Likely won't happen. However, I think getting your second street on the turn makes more sense than trying to get it on the river. On the river 1/4 of the time the spade will come and you will either be behind or not be able to get a bet from any hand. The 3/4 of the time that a spade doesn't come you are not getting any money from the many spade draws he could have. You are just hoping to get hero called by a pocket pair (very few combos) that wouldn't call turn.

I mean I'd need to know more about villain to know what his 2x open / call a 3b range looks like but 99/TT alone = 2x as many combos as combos that we are losing to.

they can't call with worse if we don't bet. if they fold, whatever, we should have plenty of bluffs here too

Grunching*

OP, you are overthinking it with all the combo's. Poker math is great, but using it will mislead you against tight, passive villains. When V bets the river like that you are not likely to be good with top pair even.

You are beating a bluff. It's a call against a player with some aggression given the fact that he can have so many more draws than value hands. Still, it's a fold here. You have no reason to think V is capable of making this bluff, let alone do it often enough to make the call worthwhile.

Play the player baby.

+1. Half of V's range is a FD at this point. (Tightie letting go of small pp's sometimes.) These won't pay on the river unless they hit. Bet/Fold half the pot. Plan to fold the river if the flush hits and V donks. This kind of V will exploit you very rarely.

If we check back the turn, don't we almost guarantee a river call? Compare this to the number of times he calls a turn bet (risking facing a river bet for perhaps stacks) + times he calls a turn and river bet, and my guess the check turn / guaranteed river value bet method comes out ahead.

GimoG

Raise bigger pre and bet less on the flop.

also this^

op based on the threads you have been posting I think working on your sizing would be very beneficial to you

I will have plenty of bluffs in my range I will barrel for 3 streets on this board so if he folds too much that's fine with me too.

We have a pretty large range advantage on this board texture so I am going to be doing a lot of betting.

Are you betting less because you are betting for value? 3/4 PSB should be a lot more effective at getting small pp's to let the flop go. 1/2 PSB is going to look suspiciously weak on a two tone board, especially if we aren't HU.

I would fold in this situation. There's no question about what I'd be doing.

Small stakes players rarely bluff. In particular, they rarely bluff for big money on the turn or river. And they rarely bluff with 3bets and never 4bet pre-flop. Whenever you can fairly assume your opponent is not bluffing, and you can only beat a bluff, you should fold. If you can beat only one or two represented hands, your best and safest play is folding. But if you can list more than a few hands you can beat, it’s often a call. In general a lead big bet on the river is a hand that beat at least TP. In this situation villain is representing a lot of hands that you stand no chance beating.

I guess that's fair enough *if* you have an image that is capable of 3barrelling air.

GnotsurethatisOP'simageG

C/c c/c lead river is one of the strongest most value heavy lines a seemingly passive player can take. The runout is good for your range and he’s still blasting it on river. I would probably fold AK here. They just don’t bluff often enough and especially on this line and runout. He probably has KK

smaller otf
probably ob turn, atleast size up
fold river