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Second nuts, huge SPR Second nuts, huge SPR

06-26-2015 , 11:23 AM
Hand between two regulars in casino

This hand was played about half an hour ago (just to get in the mood)
Everyone folds to CO
CO ($350) raises to 16 (Reg1, probably considered a pro)
SB ($150) calls 16
BB ($400) calls 16 (Reg2, loose passive pf, likes to play a lot postflop and limps or raises 7 with a lot of limpers just to juice the pot)

Flop: 553 (pot=48)
Everyone checks
Turn: 8 (pot=48)
SB bets 30
BB raises 130
Button tanks, checks cards, talks to himself (what the f*** are you calling with etc) and folds after 2 minutes
SB goes all in for a few extra and BB calls
SB shows 99
BB shows T8o
Button tilted turns over hand before mucked 75

Hand in question a while later
6way limped pot, everyone checks on flop
Board on turn
J674 and the action starts! (Pot= $12)
SB raises 10
BB (Reg1) raises 30
UTG+2 calls 30 (stack around 250)
UTG+3 (Reg2) raises 150 (has reloaded, stack 350)
LP limpers fold
SB folds
BB (Reg1) goes all in 350
UTG+2 folds
UTG+3 (Reg2) calls all in

Reg1 shows 35
Reg2 shows 58 for higher straight

Reg1 tilts and leaves table an orbit later

They knew each other, have played for long on the same table
Reg2 limps pf with anything (kept notes and his range includes 85o to QQ) from any position and when making big raises he has nuts about half the time as i saw later. The other half of his range when raising like this includes top or middle pairs, 2 pair, sets etc.

Should reg1 have played differently? It's true that Reg2 raises loose, but the pot went from $12 to $750 on the turn and he was drawing to 3 outs to split pot... Isn't he supposed to have the nuts there?
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 12:12 PM
Your question could be more meta than just about the hand. You've got guys who might have long history. Reg2 could be very well tilting. Does he tilt much, and what's his reaction to a big loss on a bluff? Some tighten up considerably afterwards, and others figure to keep a wide range and hope to hit a lot of junk hands.
There are plenty of times in limped pots where the hand will play the same and 2nd straight will beat a set. Often sets will wait until the turn to show any strength, especially on rainbow flop. So if Reg1 has any reads, the call isn't terrible.
At 1/2 every reraise-shove isn't the nuts.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 12:17 PM
Lol

All my chips are going in the middle. Car keys too.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ticallkaneis???
... Isn't he supposed to have the nuts there?
As far as I'm concerned, he does.

The SPR isn't that huge, especially given the way it played out. If someone had raised in front of him, one caller, then someone else made the 150 raise, then someone shoved for 700eff. or something like this, then the idea of not getting it in might enter my mind.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 04:46 PM
hard to tell what to do here as you have to be sitting at the table. but a good player needs to learn to make tough folds or keep the pot small sometimes with big hands that are vunerable.
in july 2+2 magazine i have an article about making tough folds coming out next week.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ticallkaneis???
Should reg1 have played differently? It's true that Reg2 raises loose, but the pot went from $12 to $750 on the turn and he was drawing to 3 outs to split pot... Isn't he supposed to have the nuts there?
To me this hand indicates the huge reverse implied odds that low hands have, and that any hand with a gap has.

If the 4 improved Reg 2's hand then Reg 1 is not doing well against Reg 2's get it in range:

Board: Jh 6s 7c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.688% 09.66% 20.03% 102 211.50 { 5h3h }
Hand 1: 70.313% 50.28% 20.03% 531 211.50 { 44, 85s, 53s, 85o, 53o }

Long story short I think if there were live HUDs where you could track your win-rate by hand that nobody would be opening 35s, not even pros playing 1/2NL.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
hard to tell what to do here as you have to be sitting at the table. but a good player needs to learn to make tough folds or keep the pot small sometimes with big hands that are vunerable.
in july 2+2 magazine i have an article about making tough folds coming out next week.
awesome, how can i get my hands on the mag
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 07:34 PM
What about the first hand?
He opens with 75 obviously not for value preflop, he can't believe he is the favorite there. He either wants to hit something strong while being concealed or steal postflop.
He hits the flop, probably no one believes he has a hand that strong, he gets action and then folds.
Did he outlevel himself there?
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 07:36 PM
Nobody opened with 53s. It was a limped pre pot.

Had someone opened it would have been a different story.

Assuming 53s opened. 85 would not be in the hand.

The players involved in these hands are terrible, but I would love to play against them.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-26-2015 , 07:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmacTheorySSAnne
awesome, how can i get my hands on the mag
sorry for clueless noob question.. i think the mag is here online, from my little research, so i will look out for it. Wouldn't mind getting a 2 plus 2 mag in the mail tho *hardcopy
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
06-27-2015 , 02:47 AM
its live 1/2in a casino. likely to be the lowest stakes game offered. this is where the bad players will be and the not so good hustlers. forget about hand ranges just figure out what they may have and how much they like their hand with the action.
no starting hand is ever ruled out from being shown.

if you get broke because you ruled out 2,3 offsuit you deserve to get broke.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
07-02-2015 , 10:43 PM
nice article in the 2+2 mag ray zee. well worth a re read. the issue dropped yesterday?
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote
07-03-2015 , 12:28 AM
thanks. its one to think about as most dont get away from big hands that are really automatic folds.
Second nuts, huge SPR Quote

      
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