Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchstreetfish
Shipping probably won't get enough calls, given board, stacks and pot size.
Pot is $180. Bet half pot, $90. That's small enough to get called by all straights and raised by all full houses. You bet $90, V can raise to $220, thinking maybe he has FE, or he can make a crying call and you can get some value.
If you ship, he can fold a one card straight on this board, or even KQ.
It's opponent dependent, but, board paired and flush got there, so KQ might fold here, which means shipping is targeting full houses only, and there aren't enough full houses in his range to get paid often enough to make shipping the superior play. Get value from his straights.
I considered this. I thought that the combination of the board pairing and the flush coming backdoor would make him less likely to bet with hands that have now deteriorated in strength. So I think that betting is for sure the best play.
As for size I think $90 or all in is the best options.
I think that if we bet $90, he is not likely going all in over the top. Also, $90 looks so much like a value bet begging to be called. I think it takes the likelyhood of a bluff on my part out of the equation.
As for a All-in open ship, in my mind it screams weakness and includes possible bluffs.
I think both have merits.