1/2 Game, table in general pretty passive, many limpers. H had a few 3 bet and flop raise hands so probably viewed as somewhat aggressive.

OTTH:
H open at EP to 10 (std size) with KsKc, all fold to SB (~260, loose passive) who calls, BB fold. Effective 260.

Flop (22) Q53r
SB ck, H bet 7, SB calls

Turn (36) 7, now two clubs. SB leads 15, H calls.
V’s turn bet is suspicious. Thought he could be betting a SD/FD. Called turn to keep his range wide anyway.

River (66), Kd, SB bets 20, H pushed AI for his remaining ~220. V tanked about 1min then fold. V later claimed that he folded 75, which is probably true given his table image.

V’s river bet is suspicious again, but now smells like a value bet given his passiveness and size. H is raising here 100%, but a smaller size may get called more often? However, with 220 behind, if V’s calling any reasonable raise (say 100), he’s probably calling an AI anyway? Plus any additional profits (if he called) would be rake free (capped at 200 pot), so thought it’s better to make a big pot rather than small?

Thoughts on any streets please?

$9-$12 on the flop.
Turn could go either way.

River is a raise but I think a shove is too high.

Never c-bet less than 1/2 pot heads up. If he has something worth continuing with, he'll call. And never c-bet less than your preflop bet, it just looks fishy and doesn't build the pot fast enough with your premiums.

Work on your bet sizings in general.

First off, a river re-raise at low stakes always looks super-nutted, so don't beat yourself over him not calling. However, 220 is a massive overbet on the river. You should be making it about 3-4x his bet at most to target some AQ, KQ and all the lower sets. 220 never gets called by anything other than 64, especially at a passive table.

From a retrospective view yes flop could go bigger, but it’s pretty dry with two low cards and no flush draw, so I usually prefer to bet small to keep his range wide.

What do you by turn could go either way? Either call or raise? If we raise, what do we expect villain to call here with?

What would be your river raise size? Do you think he will call a smaller raise but not a bigger one?

Well played.

Did some calculation on my way home. Now I think a shove at river is probably indifferent compared to a smallish raise, based on the EVs in various scenarios. Please let me know if you see mistakes in my calculations or disagree with assumptions. Thanks in advance.

First of all, I don’t think V has AQ or KQ type of hands here. He will never cc flop but lead a “bad” turn, then bet an over card river this way. It just doesn’t fit into any type of thinking process. But ofc anything could happen at LLSNL...

Scenario 1:
I call the river. I should expect to win that ~100 pot around 90% of time (he may have a slowplayed 64 rarely), so my expected profit will be 90 - 50 = 40, ignoring rake.

Scenario 2:
I raise to 120. He will fold his missed draw (not very likely to have draws here though given passiveness) and some weak Qx, but maybe will call with 2 pairs and sets. Overall I think he will call somewhere 20-50% of time. Let’s say I will win 35% for simplicity. So I will win a pot of ~320 at 35% of time and 100 at 55% of time. my expected profit is 160*35% + 50*65% = 88.5. Better than scenario 1, so we should definitely raise.

Scenario 3:
As played, I raise him AI to 240. Again, he will fold the same hands as in scenario 2, but will also fold some stronger but not too strong hands. I don’t think he will fold a set (77/55/33, and maybe QQ, given he is pretty passive, maybe at 10% of time), for 2 pairs (I already took 1 pair hands out as an pre-assumption), he definitely will not call more often than in scenario 2, so let’s say he will fold 53 100%, 75 75% and Q7 50% times. Without going too crazy in maths, I’d say he will probably call 15% of time (or 20% less likely to call compared to scenario 2). I think this estimation is pretty conservative? If he calls, pot size will be 540, so expected profit will be 270*15% + 50*85% = 83. It’s 5 pound less than scenario 2 but we do save more than 5 pound rake given it’s capped at 200 pot. I’ll conclude that both scenarios are more or less the same.

10 on flop, fine on turn, 3x-4x his bet on the river. obviously calling a shove but i wouldnt like it

I would bet bigger.
You should target the other part of their range, a Q and draws, if you fold out the occasional middle pair by betting larger on a dry flop it's fine, by betting smaller on the flop they continue more on the flop with smaller pairs but they won't continue on the turn unless they improve. Basically you allow them to outdraw you cheaper. If the flop was K53 i agree with sizing down. Not sure anyway of how many players call 7 but fold for 12 in this spot and if they are then against this player i would CBet a lot more often as they are playing really straight forward and CBET almost any rainbow flop with 1 high card.


In regards to the bolded, if this player isn't thinking much then my next part won't matter. The fold/call of all his 2 pair hands should be roughly the same. If he has 2 pair against you as the preflop raiser on this board, the only 2 pair you should have in your range is mostly KQ. Guess you could have some 75 combos but it's not likely, so the strength of all of his 2 pair hands, with the exception of KQ are about the same. Ignoring that Q7 blocks some of your value combos, if he has 75 here he is never losing to your Q7.

Thanks for the replies.

The second part regarding my calculation I think we are on the same page - my assignment of his folding ratio is basically based on the assumption that V doesn’t take my range into account but solely base his calling decision on his own strength.

Regarding the flop bet size, your analysis is correct but I still feel a smaller size on dry flop is easier and cheaper to make my cbet range more balanced. I will miss this flop myself a lot of time, and if I want to cbet with many other hands that miss it (which I should), I want to pick a size not so expensive that V can fold correctly often, while not too small to make his bottom/mid pair can call correctly. With 1/3 of pot bet at flop, he needs to be good at 25% of time, while 5 outs will only give him ~10% chance to improve at turn. If the turn is dry again (ie not likely to have improved his weak pair), I will probably check again and sometimes may get another street of value (if flop 2nd pair is still 2nd/3rd pair at river); if the turn is dangerous, even he made two pairs he won’t be able to get much more value from me given I have position (most likely I bet turn and check river). Meanwhile, by betting small at flop, he will also call with many smaller pairs in his hands (22-JJ except the sets), in which case he will have even fewer outs while still likely to call another street at T/R, depending on how board develops. Ofc he can also out draw me with some others cards like A high, but I don’t think it’s the majority of cases here.

Anyway, I’m probably overthinking on balancing my range in LLSNL, but the smaller I bet flop, the cheaper I can get away from my bluffs. As you said, if V calls 7, he will probably call 12; likewise, if he’s folding to 12, he will probably fold to 7 if he’s not adjusting to bet size. If he is adjusting to bet size though, a smaller bet constructing a balanced range then becomes the reasonable reaction from my side.

This hand I'm betting $15-20 on flop, calling a chunky bet from V on turn (donks on the turn are usually beating an overpair), and calling large (pot-sized or so) bets on the river. If he bets 1/2 pot or less on the river I am min-raising because he'd never bet this little with the nuts.

Agree

False on both counts. Downbetting is fine and betting < 1/2 PSB is fine, particularly headsup.

Bet $15 on the flop. He's calling with all the same hands as when you bet $7.

On the river, if he's sticky i get it, but I'd pop it up 5x to $100. Or even $120.

Yup. Like 65% PSB on the flop is just being greedy in a lot of cases, especially on a dry board like this. You're basically banking on your opponent being an idiot and not noticing that you size up with the goods

River shove may actually be ok. Think about it: the guy had one of his worst value bets. And he still legitimately almost called. I like the idea of going for it. However, it is a bit overkill here and i think a more normal raise will make us more $.

Grunch: from a balance perspective betting 1/3 pot is obviously fine, but we can exploit these types of players so hard. Most loose passives will not fold any pair on this flop for any reasonable sizing, and i've seen these types validating that it was 'only 15$' to call to hit his gutshot.
As long as we have a solid read, I'd much rather bet 15 than 7.

River seems ok. We are probably folding out his Qx no matter what, so might as well prevent him from just calling/not going broke with 55.

agreed that 1/3 psb is fine heads up a lot of the times.

but i would say at a $1/2 game with our overpairs we should just be betting 2/3psb for value.

dont think i would ever recommend downbetting with our TPTK+ hands on the flop headsup in a $1/2 game

Not for the game described and for the current pot size, where absolute bet amount is more important than bet size.

Except in your first post you literally said "never" to both points, which means you weren't tailoring your advice to this described game or to this current pot size.

FWIW, in this exact spot, I would be betting $15. But you said "never" which is simply incorrect.