2/5 Local casino, Fri night.

Hero: mid 30s white wearing t-shirt and sweat pants, backwards hat, wedding band and some jewelry.

Villain: young white kid (prob early 20s) Seemed pretty quite at the table - just going about his business.

Relevant table history:
Haven't really had any major showdowns.
Maybe one, where:
I raised with AJss from BB (after a few limpers),
flop was AQ7ccs, I c-bet, short stack (160 total) raised - I re-raised enough to put him all-in (to isolate) and old guy behind me went all in for like 220 more.
I felt was kinda pot comitted and called (he had A7hh )

Been fairly card dead, so I've been folding a lot.
Won very few pots

Stacks: Hero a bit over $1K, Villain covers

A couple limpers, Hero raises A9o from Bu to 25, 4 people call.
Flop (125): 986 (2 tone) checked to me - Hero bets 100, folded to Villain he calls
Turn (325): 5x - V checks - Hero checks
River: (325) Ax - V bets 250

Hero??

Anybody?

Let it go.

He probably doesn't credit you with being able to fold AK here but he's betting anyway.

And I think he doesn't bet this size with a lot of two-pair type hands.

I think he has 7x more than 80% of the time.

Prob a fold on the river, turn doesn't make any sense for a made hand so he prob had a hand like 87 and banged it on the turn, then tried to check/raise. Lead smaller on flop IMO

I don't really love the button raise with A9o. The 9 is pretty useless, and people like to play aces. I'd rather raise a hand like KJo or QT because you can rep the ace and both of your cards are probably live.

You didn't explain what position villain is in. Did he limp? was in the blinds?

If he's reasonably competent and he overlimped the only way he has a 7 here is like 87s, 76s, maybe 97s and those hit the board so hard they might even attack the PFR.

I guess in a vaccum I just give it up.

The other weird thing here is does villain check the straight OTT with the flush draw out there and potentially lose his action if the flush comes in? If he check/raises the turn, what does he ever get called by?

Agree with above that your flop lead would be just as effective if you bet 80.

This feels like a villain who binked a straight on the turn and checked to let you bet for him so he could check/raise. His river bet is for value a lot IMO.

I'm finding myself debating a call, though. Ace is a good bluff card for him, and he has flush draws in range. Do you have anymore of a read on the villain's play?

Against a passive, fit or fold V a bet/fold on the turn has value, but you haven't described this V in that manner.

V - is like 2 seats on my right, so he was in HJ.
It's was limped to me Pre, I was just playing BU not so much A9o.

So what do u think V would be putting me on with 100 bet into 125 pot on flop,
And then check on turn?

I would think BIG pp and AK most likely here. Am I wrong?
How much u think would V bet river with a 2 pair hand like 98?

Villain def. not the passive fit-fold type.
Later on he stacked off with KK for ~730ish total in a sick pot where AA, KK and TT saw a 3-bet pot 3way, flop was JT8 (two spades) and all the $$$ went in on the flop (~2200 pot)

When he bets the river, this could be a polarized bet, depending on the villain. If he is a nit, then it is almost always the nuts or close to and you should fold. If this guy is capable of turning a missed FD or JT into a bluff on the river and represent the lower straight, then I would call. If he is a good player and can merge 2 pair and bet in this spot, then it's a fold.

In most cases at this limit, villains don't bluff or thin value bet enough so I would fold.

I'm confused by this statement.
If we think he can bet 2 pair - why is that a fold??

"playing your button" doesn't mean just raise anything on the button. Over like 4 limpers with a hand like A9 you really need to thin the field and/or have a hand that can hit big. Personally I don't like mid aces to do this with, but if you want to that's fine. Just don't be surprised when you get into situations like this.

What is his HJ limping range? There should be a lot of 7's in his range, but I think villain can also bet sets here for value.

We don't have a seven ever, so villain can easily bet 66 for value here and expect to be called by AK, etc.

Haven't played long enough/seen enough showdown with this guy to nail his exact range, but let's just say the way a typical 2/5 game goes - it definitely includes virtually every 2-pair that I beat right now.

Every Ax suited that makes 2-pair,
89s, 89o, (there's a good change these would donk or c/r flop though)
86s, 86o,
65s, 65o (though - I don't know how these call $100 flop bet)

and, obviously it does include a lot of 7s, all the 97, 87, 76, 75 hands.
I guess 97 makes sense, would you really call $100 with 87 or 67?
I think 75 would def raise flop!

Sets are always possible (obviously), but I would really expect a flop raise on a board like that with a set. It's drolling wet, I'm basically repping a big PP on the flop, why not try to stack me right there with a set (repping a big draw)?

Just to add, I don't think most Ax hands call the flop, unless it's the one with pair and NFD

This is an interesting spot. You kind of dug yourself into a hole with bloating a pot with a marginal hand, then betting huge on the flop to make it worse.
Villain probably puts you on a big overpair, raise preflop and a big bet into 4 other callers is pretty strong. However, since villain was able to see all the other villains fold before him he doesn't have to have as strong of a hand to call. I doubt villain turned his missed flush draw into a pot sized value bet when he hit that ace. I think he'd bet smaller to get you to call with KK/QQ/etc. I also doubt he called you on the flop with a pair and an ace

I think a set would have raised you on the flop due to the high amount of action killers left to come. But you never know, its always a possibility.

The check behind on the turn tells the villain you don't have a 7. This could allow villain to value bet 2 pair or sets, but I don't really see too many 2 pair combinations available here. (89, 68, 56). I think he has too many 7's in his range to make this call. (97, 87, 67, 57, 77, random 7x flush draw. I'd fold

Well I ended up calling and he did have 87o

I guess that was a mistake judging by all the responses.
I was totalyl ruling out sets and just had a hard time believing he'd call flop bet with a 7, especially OOP...

Running the numbers 87 actually has ~45% equity, so I guess I was wrong ...

really need a read on his ability to bluff here, cause his river range is basically 7x and either bluffs or weak made hands he is turning into a bluff not likely to be bombing the river with 2 pairs/sets for example. If villain is capable of bluffing I dont hate the call, but there aren't a ton of players at this level that will bet the river like that as a bluff so it comes down to reads.

Why not? If we have a set here we're ahead like all of the time. If I had a set that I was slowplaying I'd bet this river, and when an ace comes off he might as well bomb it because Hero either has an ace (or 2 pair) or he's not calling. A small bet doesn't get called much more than a large bet here.

I think your assuming villain is thinking on that level, most players are either going to bet small with those hands on this river or check or bluff.

that river bet is pretty polarizing to 7x and bluffs from most villains at this level is what I am trying to say. you might be able to get value in this spot but most players aren't taking that line.

I also think its hard for villain to have a flopped set or two pair with the line he took

I think we can b/f ott for like $150 or so. Villain likely has several worse 9x hands that will be calling.