Hero ($400) - TAG at this point..Picking up a few value hands + had some good iso opportunities in position so my nit image has been a dampening down.

Villain #1 ($300) - Sat down a few hands prior to this hand. Seemed pretty tight, no real reads.

Villain #2 ($250) - Tight / Passive and a station.

Villain #2 raises utg+1 to $7, hero 3bets to $21, villain #1 flat out of the BB, villain #2 flats.

($55 in pot)

J 4 3 rainbow.

check, check, hero bets $35, villain #1 flats, villain #2 folds.

Turn: K, still rainbow board.

check, check.

River: A

Villain #1 donks for $35 into $125...how much do we raise?

I was unsure what he was flatting with from the BB initially...I assumed it was a pretty big hand and my plan was to bet/fold 3 streets on decent boards. I checked the turn trying to pot control considering KK *could* be in his range, playing it ever so passively pre...JJ as well.

I don't like the check ott, keep firing. Unlikely villain #1 is going to just flat out of the BB with KK unless hes super passive. You need to keep betting to get value.

as played: pop it to around $110 otr

As for betting for value
flop: $40-$45
turn: $100
river: shove

I like a follow up bet on the turn. You can still get value from worse hands like AJ and QQ. KK may be possible but he will let you know on the river. I think KK might have raised the flop. As played I would just call the donk on the river

Wait I missed that you got trips on the river. I definitely would keep being aggressive throughout the whole hand. I like the bet bet shove line given the run out

$40 flop/$105 turn/shove river. No reason you shouldn't just bet/bet/shove a board like this. V should just about never have KK and you can't be afraid of a 2-outer in a 3b pot.

I don't mind the turn check. Not for pot control and obv not bc of draws. More because I think that K may be a scare card for V's flop calling range. He is more likely to pay off a river bet. Not sure we're getting 3 streets of value unless he has KJ.

OTR I slide out a full stack of reds.

As played I raise to $120 or so on the river.

Maybe a case can be made to raise smaller to try and induce a shove or just shove the river. Would be interested to hear thoughts on those options.

Bet half pot on turn. As played I am thinking few seconds and announcing all in. The reason for the all in is because of your check on the turn. Your hand looks like you C bet and gave up so we look very weak at this point. Not to mention he is described as a total station and if he has KK or JJ or two pair he is paying you off any ways. Lets just hope he didn't do this with Q10 since that is the only hand that beats us.

AP, I like a river shove > raise to 120 > min raise and hope for a 3bet shove.

My plan would obv be b/b/b and get ai by the river. The K would have derailed my plan ott. Jx probably isn't ignoring the turn K and willing to call everything off now. I'm not checking, probably bet the same amount as otf or something stupid, but the only Jx calling ~80 ott is KJ.

I don't think AJ/QJ are folding still

We probably should size our bet a bit smaller than we normally would, though, for the bottom part of his range for the points you mentioned. The King does increase our FE, which we don't want.

Even if AJ/QJ calls a small turn bet despite the K, do you think they will also call a river bet unimproved?

With an SPR (stack to pot ratio) of 6 it should be super easy to get stacks in by the river if we like the run out. That's one of the reasons that we 3bet pre flop. (Other reasons being fat value, denying odds to set mine, taking initiative, oh and did I mention fat value?)

Flop bet it a touch bit small, but it's not horrible. Board is pretty dry so smaller sizing is fine. On the turn though, bet something, anything. Given the flop sizing I like $75 or so. Still only leaves us with $150 or so to get in on the river, which we should be happy to shove in.

As played I'm torn between clicking it back hoping he spazzes with 2p/set or just shoving.

I think I'm going to shove and wait for him to make a mistake.

I don't think an SPR of 6 is low enough to put blinders on and plan to get stacks in without further thought. Even if lower, I still consider SPR just another factor to consider and not a full justification for actions. I would still rather make decisions based on ranges primarily.

What do you think villain's 3! Calling range is PF. Which of those continue to call our flop bet? Of those, which do we continue to get value from OTT and further, call a bigger bet on the river? Is villain stacking off with one pair facing a bet on every street? I don't think so.

I don't HATE a turn bet. I just think V is more likely to call a river bet after we check turn with one pair, than a turn barrel. Let alone a turn and river barrel.

Should be betting turn. As played, raise to 120.

Yes, it is just another tool.
But if we like the run out, why would we not try and get stacks in?
People can and do certainly station off with less for greater stacks. And I think with the sizing, we should have a plan to try and stack off and then need a reason not to. (I.e. if the board comes out weird and smashes their range.)

Sure if the board comes KQJ98 we're not going to try and get stacks in.
But if we like the run out, it should be easy to get them in.
Binking a set on the river, (and likely the best hand if we didn't have it already) and worrying about how to nest get the money in is not something that I like to have to do when I did have an SPR of 6 with AA.
Ya know?

So the biggest error in the hand is the turn check. Stacks could of easily gone in on the river I there was a bet on turn.

Yes

Bet the turn, as everyone else said. Sizing has already been covered - give yourself a chance to get stacks in on the river if it develops well.

As played, I shove the river. Given that our read is average tight player, I think his range is pretty polarized here. It's like weak one pair hands/bluffs and two pair or better. What hands is he bet/folding to a shove but bet/calling to a smaller raise? Like if he somehow shows up with KQ/QJ, he's not calling any raise. If he has like TT, same deal.

That leaves sets and two pair. I think he's calling a shove often enough that it's worth going for max value here.

After the flop call, his range looks like AJ, KJ, TT, 99, maybe JJ. Now, after the turn check, I doubt he has KJ or JJ, would be a total loss in value on V's part. His donk otr suggests he has AJ or is trying to represent the A by bluffing. TT and 99 have showdown equity given the action. Honestly, this looks like the perfect runout for a bet/bet/jam for Hero.

Given H's decision otr, I vote for a quick shove on top; looks more spazzy. But if he's got any clue, maybe only raise him back to $100 or something.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Not imo.



I think we can/should still bet the turn and river but much smaller than if the turn/river cards were both 3s. We can't go 2/3 pot, 2/3 pot like we wanted. Instead of 70/170-ai we could bet about 50/75 and feel pretty confident about having Jx call.