Game is $1/$2 $300 max NL in NH. Hero has been riding the roller coaster today, between up $200-$300 and even. Has built stack from $300 to $600 twice only to run KK into AA twice and QQ into KK once, all in for 75-90 blinds each time. H has again built his stack back now to $850. About 4 hours into the session. H has been playing his usual sLAG.

Main V in the hand is an OMC. Very passive, but sticky with top pair and draws. Will fold top pair on later streets to heave aggression or if an overcard appears (even if it is very unlikely that his opponent could get to that street with an OC). V has been running good today, winning lots of hands with top pair/good and hitting several str8's and flushes that have held. Stack is $500 (up from $200).

OTTH

Folded to Hero who raises in MP to $15 with KQ. Two callers ($150 effective) to V in SB who calls, BB folds.

Flop ($57 after rake): 7JT

V leads for $20. Obviously a very big flop for Hero, but I decide to just call as I want to allow for the chance that they spazz in between H and V so that I might be able to backraise over-shove (mistake? Is this flop always an auto raise for anyone?). One fold and BTN calls.

Turn ($117): 7JT3

V checks. H also checks as draw equity is lower and thinks he has very little FE versus V if he holds top pair or a draw. BTN checks as well.

River ($117): 7JT39

V hesitates and checks. Hero bets $100. BTN folds and simultaneously, V says "Make it $200". Hero?

Go back in time and shove flop...
As played, sigh call. Can’t see what a raise by you gets called with that you beat.
And his range is certainly larger than the but flush and only the not flush.

Lol, indeed....

Dear God yes, raise the flop. You have King high.

AP, river bet was way way way too big. With the cards in your hand and the ones on the board, what are you expecting him to call with? I would've gone $60 to get crying calls from 8x or other straights, or two pairs.

River spot illustrates why the huge bet was a mistake. We're kind of priced in to call a min-raise, but we're also almost never winning. V would have to have J7dd or 85dd for us to win, basically.

In b4 Hero calls and V tables J8dd

Yes. In retrospect this is very true. I didn't take enough to range V on the river when sizing so that was a mistake.

Can raise flop most of the time, snap call river.

(not sure why I'm in a 1/2 NL thread since I never play that level, but...)

On the river, the biggest hands we beat are 85dd and 65dd (for realz, there is not a single higher diamond hand we beat unless we think he's calling a raise with J7dd). Do those hands (and smaller) call preflop? Do those hands check/raise river? With this in mind, even though "call" was my initial answer (thinking it was perhaps a question of whether to call vs raise), it's now pretty clear it's between calling and folding, and folding might not be as horrible as we think against an OMC who shows signs of MUBSyness and just check/raised the river.

I mean, we're basically banking on a whole lotta spazz here / misread board (thinking his straight is the nuts).

GcluelessNLnoobG