2/5 live
Hero: winning image, showed down 1 bluff, $2100

Villain: losing, $1100, mid aged Asian, mega station passive will call down with mid/top pair hands but will raise when has it, have seen him limp call OOP with Q2s 94s ect and then proceed to pay off with top pair until he doubled through when he actually raised river with a str8 and some how got paid.

Villain limps UTG2 hero raises to $30 with AsAx in Mid, BTN calls villain calls

Flop
K82(2s)
Villain checks, hero bets $65
BTN folds villain snap calls.

Turn
5s( BD FD) villain checks, hero bets $155, villain calls.

River
9s, completing the back door flush
Villain checks
There's $530ish in the pot.

Board was dry OTF but considering who I was up against I could have actually bet pot and got called by worse same for the turn, so I don't really like how I played those 2 streets and I could have raised to $35-40 pre knowing who I'm up against but haven't tested his pre flop thresh hold and I didn't want to lose him, so decided on $30.
Now we get to the river when flush completes but we are up against the ultimate station that would most likely lead with his flushes and would most deff. C/R at some point with 2P+ and WILL pay off with top pair.
I'm never checking this back but I got lost on how much should I bet for value.

Thoughts?

Ps
My second post, so bare with me if I didn't follow procedure on how to post hands.

Do you know if the flop K was a spade?

No it was the 2s.

The only thing we normally request is that you didn't include is the pot size on each street. Other than that you've got all the essentials. Most of the rest is just poster specific as to what they like to include.

As for the hand, hand look good up to this point in general.
If you have reads they can call with worse for bigger sizing, then by all means, you can go bigger. $80/$200/$475 can't be a bad line against the described villain.

As played I'd go $325.

Without any other history on villain, I like $400 here. Even from a fairly stationary villain more is likely to get a fold when you obviously have AK. If you are beat it's probably K9/98 but the range of hands that will pay you off is huge so a bet is mandatory here. Against this villain it's a bet/fold situation. Some villains might spazz out with AK and raise you but without evidence that he will spazz I'm assuming any raise is two pair+.

This is a situation where you could optimize your sizing a bit once you get a feel for villain. There are a few stations so bad I would simply bet pot on turn and river. Stacks are deep enough that you can't expect to stack villain here no matter what so figure out what he will pay. Other stations, who will give up less then a good KX to a big bet might need a smaller $200/$300 sized bet. Against an unknown station, I like around 3/4 of the pot rounded off to a whole number.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought (2s) meant 2 spades. Now I get it lol. I would normally bet $300-$350 on the river but if your read is correct I would go big like $450. If he is a station I would go with a big river bet and let him level himself into believing you are bluffing or whatever the thoughts are that these players go thru to decide they should call. I think bigger just might look fishier. This does put us in a tough spot if he is the type of player that would slow play and check raise. Your read indicates that he would have already checked raised if very strong so this is not a big risk. However, if he has less than top pair he might find a fold.

Against this villain I would go a bit bigger on flop and turn especially since a K is in a lot of ranges. The best chance to get a bigger river bet is by building the pot early.

Thx guys, knew I messed up when I bet $265 villain called and mucked.
In retrospect I love $400 and fold to a shove vs this specific profile.
Thank you again.

Yeah, against this V betting <1/2 pot is missing some value.

+1 for 2/3rds b/f

One important question is whether villain is capable of check-raising the river; and if so, with what. If he is capable of check-raising with Kx (or worse) you need to check behind. I agree with a strong river bet but only because this kind of player is way more likely to call than checkraise.

I agree with this. Can we really b/f the river here? Anything over a $115 river bet puts us over the commitment threshold of 1/3 effective stacks. B/f $300-400 seems inconceivable to me. Our hand looks exactly like what we are repping, AK or AA (or KKK perhaps). Folding to a c/r seems easily exploitable.

I know the V is a calling station, but trying to get 3 streets of max value with just an overpair seems a little greedy. B/f anything more than $200 would seem horrible to me.

I'm really torn between checking behind and a small river value bet. I guess if you know he is incapable of c/r and will call you off with hands like KQ or KJ then sure go $350 but the rooms I play at these villains are few and far between.

The whole 1/3rd commitment threshold is bs.

That concept was designed to be used when your opponent has a bluffing range and by that point you are sometimes making a bigger mistake by folding then calling.

Against a "mega station fish" who only raises when he has it.

If we bet and he raises...well guess what?

He has it!

Furthermore what kind of hand is he ever turning into a bluff here? And is he turning that hand into a bluff so often that it would ever make sense to call?

^

The most profitable way to play live low/mid stakes is to play exploitive poker, we are not playing Tom Dwans Phil Iveys or Phil Galfonds, very few if any are paying attention to how you play your hands and how thin you are capable of betting.
We have to remember that we are playing vs players that mostly play their own hands and the strengths of their own hands, that been said, if we actually try to think as villain would in this spot, any and I mean any rec player will always lead with a flush OTR since in his mind he'll be afraid that I/we will check back that river(since he will always check it back) and he's only going to play the strength of his hand in this spot and not my tendencies thus when he donks we are actually exploiting him by just folding, if he c/r OTF or OTT again we are exploiting him by just folding when we are behind, only because these type of players are not going to triple or double for that matter and they just want to win what's in the pot so when there's a bit of aggression from them we let go.
But when we profile correctly and knowing that villain's range, based on previous show downs, includes hands like K2o/s+ which is a ton of top pair hand that he's not laying down ever and is willing to pay off, not betting this river for value is just criminal!!
All we have to do is tweak our sizing, as you could see I posted that I bet $265 and he called and mucked I'm not result oriented and I'm not greedy but vs this profile betting $265 and not $350-$400 is leaving money on the table and sizing is bad vs this particular villain, vs other profiles I might have played it diff..

You shouldn't worry about concepts like balance and exploitative play in live poker very few are paying attention but when you play vs someone that's willing to pay your rent/mortgage/car payments we need to be willing to oblige and bet thin.

I agree with most of what you said except the not worrying at all about balance. If you do something like:

JJ+, AK: Raise pre-flop to 6BB plus 1BB for each limper
Other pre-flop raises: Raise to 3BB plus 1BB for each limper

Even a fish can figure out pretty quickly that if you only raise 3BB you don't have AA.

Similarly if you get caught bluffing just once on the river, you'll get a lot more river lookups from players with weak hands that remember the bluff.

An extreme example: 4-bet pre-flop when you detect weakness and show a hand like 87s when your opponents fold. Next time you have AA or KK your 4-bet will be more likely to get called.

The key is to shift gears so that by the time your opponents have figured out how you are playing, you have shifted gears and they totally misread you.

IMO, LLSNL is all about B/F your way to riches. This is a prime example... I'd probably bet $325-$375.

Thanks for the breakdown Letmewin1. 350 hours of live experience and I know nothing it seems. Long long way to go. I'm in a bit of a downswing playing too passively which probably leads to my skepticism.

I actually disagree with your first example. In llsnl there are so many limoers that the +1bb per limper makes our raise sizing seemingly random.

Furthermore I feel that so many llsnl players are so ADD and disinterested they arnt even going to correctly identify what you are doing let alone make the proper adjustments.

Obviously this all goes out of the window when facing competent players.