Five handed playing 2/2 live at Best Bet Jacksonville. Hero is a winning reg and so is Villain. 1/4/21

H utg ~900 AhJc
V btn 379

There is only one BB this hand.
H opens to $12 only V calls
Flop $26: AdAc6d
H bets $10 V calls
Turn $46: 4c
H bet $25 V calls
River $96: Kc
H bets $130 and V jams $329

What should H be doing in this river spot? Thoughts on bet sizing on various streets?

This is one of the few flops you can think about checking since there really aren't any bad turn cards. I'd bet a tad bigger on the flop if I were to bet.

Turn sizing seems fine, if you go 30-35 I think that's fine as well.

I'm not a fan of the river sizing. with the Ac and Kc being accounted for villain shouldn't have any made flush here. He shouldn't have any made flush unless he chose to float QJcc, JTcc, etc. So villain's likely range here is Ax (losing to A6, A4), 66, and maybe random floats.

What are you targeting with the over bet sizing?

Turbo folding and don’t like anything about the river over bet.

The river bet is targeting worse AT-7 and suited wheel aces. Also targeting sticky middling pairs 77-JJ. Note that H also could lose to AK or AQ.

Thoughts on sizing on previous streets?
Why are you not a fan of the river over bet?
H is repping Ax or missed diamonds, seems like a good spot to polarize myself.

Ouch. I don't like river over bet because he's rarely calling with worse. If you have some type of meta game with this player, maybe it will work, but doubtful. Plus, if he jams, you are in a tough spot -- obviously.

I fold here unless he is meta gaming your meta game

Flop and turn bets are fine. Flop could be a check, but I usually bet to build a pot vs. worse A and non-believers.

Given the meta game dynamic from the current session and previous sessions played against each other, H is certain V would call river over bet with all worse Ax and some middling pocket pairs.

I know H can lose to AK/AQ but it's so few combos that I'm not even concerned about that range plus v can 3b AK/AQ pre so discounting some of those combos.

Expecting 77-JJ in villain's range by the river is a little ambitious, and if the villain does show up with that range over betting is not the correct size on the river.

AT-A7 calls a small bet, not an over bet.

If you know this, then you know V's range for shoving river. What is it?

This river sizing is way too ambitious.

66, A6 and A4 lol.

I see 0 bluffs in villain's range, all worst Ax are simply flatting if not folding rivers some of the time.

Polarizing on this river with this hand is really bad. At least in a vacuum

In general on board changing cards, we should be sizing smaller. When we bomb this river card, we’re basically saying that we sandbagged quads, AK, turned 4’s full, or rivered the Q hi flush.

Once we overrep ourselves and still get jammed on, it’s a fold

Edit: saw we bet flop, which makes this play at least more defensible. It’s still generally not a good idea to use hands whose relative value has diminished on a particular card in a polarized betting strategy, though.

If he’s really this stationy, the way to exploit him is to bomb turn. Not discount that the river changes the board and go guns blazing anyway.

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I would have folded pre, not opened.

as played I like the flop bet as you would expect an A to check this flop


overbet is a waste

easy fold

what? fold AJ 5 handed?

oops missed that it was 5 handed

I'm not overbetting river, I think if we do that, we should be polarised to nuts or air. Flop and turn look OK, I would likely go $60-$70 OTR to target Ax.

AP this is the snappiest of folds unless you have the type of history which makes you want to bluff catch someone jamming over your river overbets.

I think the previous streets are fine but OTR after V has called twice you’re closer to a bluff catcher than a value jammer. With AK I don’t mind the meta play over bet but you’re target AQ/AQ. Polarizing with a mediocre hand doesn’t seem like your doing it right. Basically I agree with everything between my first post and this one, except the part about folding AJo pre 5 handed.

Java - you are probably the poster on here who most aligns with how I see it. Which is surely unfortunate for you.

I like slightly bigger flop and turn bets, and a lower river bet. He could have missed a flush draw, target all the hands in his range not just A10. If you bet 2/3rds pot, maybe he'll call with a pair and a FD something like KdXd as played fold river (we have zero info on him or anything to go on).

Apparently we have a ton of info on him: Given the meta game dynamic from the current session and previous sessions played against each other, H is certain V would call river over bet with all worse Ax and some middling pocket pairs.

Based on this, I want to know what OP thinks V's shoving range is.

twitcherroo, I'm glad we agree

that wasn't in the OP must have been hidden in the thread somewhere but after he jams I still like a fold. But be careful with that thinking especially if they're a pro to say he will always do "X" or he will always do "Y".



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I like a fold, too, unless OP knows something we don't, which is why I asked