Cannot get my head around the best play here on river. Think i played it pretty standard until the river but lets see...

£1/£2NL
Hero is CO with ~£800 - TAG, winning player, have span £400 into £800 in an hour or so.
V1 is UTG+1 with ~£300 - Unknown but seems to play ABC, has shown to be a little spewy but nothing of real note.
V2 is Button and covers - Very good player, known as spewy but plays the image perfectly and best player in room imo. wins tons.

V1 opens UTG+1 to £9, folds to Hero who calls with A4 in the CO. V2 calls on button and blinds fold.

Flop is
KJ3 (£30)

V1 bets £22, Hero flats, V2 raises to £82, V1 calls, Hero calls

Turn is T (£276)

V1 checks, Hero checks, V2 checks

River is the 5 (£276)

V1 shoves for £211, Hero ?

Thoughts?

If he's the best player in the room, if you just call there's got to be almost no chance he raises with anything less than the nuts, which he can't have because you have it.

Therefore the optimal move has to be to shove. There is some small chance he might bluff catch with a straight or worse flush or set.

I don't think you can get anymore $$ out of V2 by raising so just call. If V2 raises then you can shove, but agree with the above. V2 is probably folding.

How do you estimate the following probabilities?

P( V calls | you shove )

P( V shoves | you call )

I think the first one is at least three times as likely. Which makes shoving the correct play.

This is really a thread? Seriously?

Why wouldnt it be?

Look disgusted and tank call

It is your best chance to get any more money.

Hopefully he calls as well.

And this is a silly thread

Hmm. I would probably tank call. I wouldn't look disgusted. Well besides my normal appearance.

Two things about this hand:

1) Did you consider back-raising the flop after V2 raised?

2) I think as played this is a spot where it's very unlikely that a good player is doing anything but folding no matter what you do. So I'd gear my play to extract the most I could from V2, which means calling.

If we call, we leave open the chance that V2 overcalls. Everyone who is focused on how to get V2's entire stack are forgetting that there's a chance V2 overcalls if we call, and then at least we get some of it. For example, someone earlier was trying to argue for a shove by comparing the probability of V2 shoving for us against the probability of V2 cold-calling a shove. However, when you're comparing EVs you also have to throw in the extra EV you get from the probability that V2 overcalls if we call. That's kind of a big omission, given that an overcall is worth 211, more than a quarter of the stacks.

The way we played this hand, if we do anything other than fold here, it's going to look like we have a flush very often here. And when we shove before V2 has acted, when his hand also looks like a flush or nothing, a good player is going to realize that we aren't scared of V2 or V1 having a flush (since shoving here guarantees we go to showdown). So I think we've put ourselves in a spot where we have to trick V2 into believing that we have a flush but that if he also has one, it might be good enough to at least call.

I did consider raising the flop, but OOP vs V2 i think it puts me into a much more tricky situation either if he 4! on the flop or if he flats and i then miss then turn.

On the river my feeling is much more towards flatting V1 then shoving. If i shove i think he folds everything my be with the exception of the Q flush, which i still think he folds a good % on the time. By shoving im nutted 99% of the time here. If i flat, i think i can get calls from all his high flushes and potentially even a shove over me of his Q high flushes when he has them.

I'd just call, lets V2 overcall a lot of hands that might fold often to your shove, targeting his stack off range is nice but there's going to be way more hands that he overcalls with and way more value in getting those hands to call often.

GII, he is either calling or not, regardless of your non-fold action.

Surely you have more interesting hands with tougher decisions to discuss than this one?

I actually think this is a tough decision. Just because we win regardless doesn't make it any less tough.

But
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...77/?highlight=

a Pot size shove OTR with a player left to act after you is always a call...


Shove accomplish nothing (except if u soul read the original shover with bluff/light and u know u beat him but U are afraid of the player left to act - u know u dont beat him but he can fold to a shove - then u shove------ that s a lot of soul read!!)

I guess u are result oriented because u called and player left to act had second nuts and you he d call a shove?
or u shoved and player left to act was weak but told u - if u just call i call

I question your TAG image because you played this hand incredibly passive. Fold or 3! bluff pre. I hate calling Axs one off the button to an UTG+1 raise. You ace is often dominated and when it's not, it's hard to get paid when you hit it. You basically rely on a bare nut flush draw, which is also obvious and hard to get paid.

I'd shove the river. V2 should fold almost everything other than a Q-high flush whether you call or raise. He might call anything with a hand like QJhh or QThh. In order to make calling more profitable, V2's overcall frequency needs to be over 3x higher compared to calling your raise. Go for max value and shove it.

Given that read why is this a thread?

I can't really argue too much with the read not being at the table and I consider it somewhat likely in the general LLSNL population.

To see if what im thinking is the correct way to be thinking about this on the river.

Results

nice