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River decision in limped pot River decision in limped pot

07-19-2017 , 08:33 AM
1/3 home game....hero $495 TAG does not get out of line much, but I did recently show down a big semi bluff when I got there on the river.

Villain $200 is decent reg. A little passive. Plays a few too many hands.

3 limps to hero in small blind and I call $2 with 4♠️3♠️

Villain checks

Flop 4♥️4♦️5River decision in limped pot

I bet $12. Villian calls. MP calls.

Turn ARiver decision in limped pot

I bet $45. Only villain calls

River ARiver decision in limped pot

Not the best river card, and I check.
Villain does not think too long before betting $66.

I know some of you would fold pre or 3bet pre, but as played.....Call it off or fold?

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River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 09:21 AM
I'm not sure how you can get away from this.

Pre-flop: I like this play, I'm a sucker for seeing suited connectors cheap and with a low suited connector, you want a lot of people in the pot, because when you do hit, you have a chance of a nice payday.

Flop: You've flopped trips with a backdoor straight, so you're pretty strong, but given that the flop is connected, and everyone limped, they could also have draws to such a low board so a bet to shut them out wouldn't be a bad idea. I like the sizing given you're playing 5 handed.

Turn: Bit of a crappy turn but I like the bet, you can't shut down here.

River: Again a nasty river, but if he doesn't have the Ace you're good.

As you know, due to the limped nature of the pot, he could have almost anything in his holding, especially given he was BB.

Given that he limped from the BB, you'd have to assume that if he does have an Ace, it's not going to be a big one.

A few questions you'd need to ask yourself:

- Would he limp in with a rag Ace?
- Would he call a 3/4 bet on the flop with a rag Ace?

Personally, I'd make the call. If he has A4/A5, really the only holding he could seemingly have if he's carrying on from the flop (assuming he has the Ace), then you're just unlucky that he's caught the flop.

Given that the villain is a decent reg, I think with a rag Ace he'd have folded or raised pre-flop. A rag Ace is not something you'd like to take to battle - you're never going to feel great even if you hit your Ace.
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 12:26 PM
I probably fold preflop. We risk so much RIO with this hand (every "good" hand we can make can be easily beaten by a dominating hand), plus we're OOP (we really need position to help us play postflop, get paid off postflop, and control things in RIO situations).

I would bet less on the flop. There's no flush draw. The only draw is a straight draw. We're not looking to build a big pot, because if someone else wants to get all their money in, we're behind (I would typically plan to fold to any raise at any point). I also think checking this fairly dry flop is also fine, as it gets money from bluffs, and if it checks thru it isn't a disaster as someone might catch a pair on the turn worth paying off two bets.

When two people call this dry flop, we should be fairly concerned. The A actually completed one of the draws, plus made it less likely that a mediocre hand like 77 is going to pay off another bet. I would actually probably check this turn and evaluate. Betting a huge PSB is a mistake, imo. I don't exactly know who your opponents are in a home game, but are we really expecting them to continue to call with worse; what, they both have 76 here?

The river card is the second best card in the deck (other than than last 4). It chops us with other 4x (all of which were beating us) plus moves us ahead of 32. ETA: The opponent is described as decent reg; he calls the flop bet with Ax (other than A4x) with 3 others behind him exactly never, right?

We have about a PSB left. We chop with all other 4x, except we're behind A4 and 55 (both very reasonable hands). We're ahead of 32. Does 32 payoff a bet on this board? Tricky decision, imo. On the river, we're calling to chop, but I think that's what I do given the < 1/2 PSB.

Overall, we overvalued our hand every step of the way, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 12:53 PM
Thanks for the input fellas....GGeek, you routinely give out some of the smartest and well thought out responses that I read on this forum. I don't know you but Damn I feel like I do sometimes lol

I did make the call and he shows A♦️5♠️

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07-19-2017 , 01:00 PM
Well, you induced it, so you need to call it.

I would bet significantly less on the turn, with that rainbow board. Your hand is getting less and less nutty as the hand progresses.

Block turn, block river. If you play it that way, in both cases he'll let you know if he has a better hand. Don't pay a lot to get to a SD that offers thin value.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 07-19-2017 at 01:08 PM.
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 01:06 PM
Yeah, missed the fact that he of course calls the flop with A5 too, but basically the point is that a competent player is *never* calling an EP flop bet with just Ax overcards with 3 others to act behind him, so he never shows up with a random A on the river except for A5/A4.

GcluelessNLnoobG
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 01:43 PM
Trips are very weak. I know because I make lots of money from players with trips. And I'm not even taking in the kicker. Just having trips is very weak considering the fact that if top card pairs you are dead. You only got "one-card" hand. In this game you got to use both of your cards. In very rare situations one card may make it but as a general rule, you got to use both cards. That's a good poker player!
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 01:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by outdonked
trips is very weak considering the fact that if top card pairs you are dead.
Yeah, dead with a full house. Bury me with a full house; I think I'll manage.
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Yeah, dead with a full house. Bury me with a full house; I think I'll manage.
Well, If the top card pairs you got the small FH and villain the top FH. If there's is action on the flop you at least have to give to someone TP. And the top card pairs ... wtf? where you stand? .., Think twice before ......
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 02:25 PM
outdonked may be overstating it a bit being overly concerned with the times he is outfullhoused, but in general we're typically not exactly in a great spot making any of our "good" hands with this hand if someone is willing to go 3 postflop bets with us (unless our opponent is ******ed).

Git'sahighRIO/lowIOhand,imoG
River decision in limped pot Quote
07-19-2017 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
outdonked may be overstating it a bit being overly concerned with the times he is outfullhoused, but in general we're typically not exactly in a great spot making any of our "good" hands with this hand if someone is willing to go 3 postflop bets with us (unless our opponent is ******ed).

Git'sahighRIO/lowIOhand,imoG
Sure, of course, if villain is ******ed I agree. But in general if villains gives action on the flop and turn at least we have to consider he's got TP and when that goddamned top card got paired we got just trouble. I'm not even gonna go into the math and simulations but trips don't show great results overall. I know because just making an analysis of my results I can see how much money I extract from other people's trips or they don't get any action but win small. Anyway, I don't like to play "one-card" hands.

Last edited by outdonked; 07-19-2017 at 03:20 PM.
River decision in limped pot Quote

      
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