Home game playing .50/1 with typical loose play, very gambley table.

Villain (~$450) - very loose/passive pre, still plays pretty loose post-flop but not as passive. Donk bets when he hits a hand. Will call with draws without proper odds. Pretty stationy but can fold in obvious situations. Earlier called very light OTF in a 3bet pot with nothing but a backdoor to the second nut flush, board ran out Ah OTT and another heart OTR and he checked to the turn bettor with the nut flush.

Hero - legit TAG image, showed down AA, top pair bad kicker with Qx, and folded top two in the 3bet pot mentioned above. $250 OTTH

V1 limps UTG, as usual. One MP limps, the rest folds to me OTB. I raise to $6 with AA. Only V1 calls.

Flop ($14.50)

KT7

Villain leads for $10. Hero calls

Turn ($34.50)

KT7 - 4

Villain checks, Hero bets $25, villain calls.

River ($84.50)

KT74 - T

Villain checks, Hero?

$95

$75. nh

Am I correct thinking that all two pair hands were counterfeited, there is way more Kx than Tx in V's range, and I can b/f river?

You also described a villain that we can comfortbaly go for 3 streets of value against here.

Why that sizing?

Yes - he should have a lot of QJ/98 and very few Tx.

Would not expect you to get x/r here by a busted OESD.

Ive never played in a home game with these small stakes but I suspect you could get away with raising to $10 or even more preflop.

If he has a lot of QJ/98 that means only a K is calling. Id bet $50. I do think he can have some Ts though and I think you can bet /fold for $50.

But the draws are kind of irrelevant now, since they are not calling any bet. The question is how many kings versus tens and monsters in his range. I think. I still bet here since he did donk flop which he might have done given Ops description with a king, so I think a bet is fine

I thought he would mostly barrel the turn with Kx and that missed draws and Tx was the majority of his range since he has checked with the nuts. In the river before, so I checked it back. Villain showed KQ.

In hindsight, he isn't likely to x/r bluff here, and as I said there are way more combos of Kx than Tx that flat pre, so it was a missed bet here.

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If the read is accurate than he should have Kx the majority of the time. If that's the case perhaps that's where iraisetoomuch got his $95 sizing from whereas I chose $75.

The T pairing is irrelevant - he's still going to have kicker problems so I want to bet an amount that he'll call all Kx with.

If I was going to overbet I think I may go very large - like $175-200.

On second thought, I think I'll change my bet size from $75 to $200.

I agree with the majority of posters that they have a lot more K's in there range than T's.

What is the boards view on flating the flop versus raising? I'd be tempted to go for 4 streets in this spot.