UTG recreational player limp (200$)
MP1 reg ROL 8$ (500$) <- agressive player, i think isolated rec with >50%deck
MP2 hero call with 44 (300$)
BB call

flop 4d3dJh POT 33$

rec check, reg bet 15$, hero call, others players fold

turn 2c POT 63$

reg check, hero bets 40$, reg call

river As POT 143$

reg donk 90$, hero?

Please add positions and include pot size on each street.

Sometimes I flat flop and sometimes I raise. What is your image?

Turn is fine.

I call the river. I don't think a raise is getting called by worse, and a random 5 just got there.

(The only hand that might call is AJ, but I'm not sure it's worth it.)

Raise flop multi way. A lot of new players have the tendency to slow play sets when they shouldn’t. As played I call an aggro V. He has more As here than 5s.

done

i think in flop a raise put the bb and recreational out of pot and think range of regular is mostly air... is true the flushdraw and straightdraws its there but...

Flop is a spot where I flip a coin....I want to raise and call about the same frequency. Both plays have merit.

As played, just call the river and hope V doesn't have a 5 in his hand.

i think on river... FD miss... and even an Ax can donk to take value, but this hands calls turn?

dont know, my point is..

how think in this river to "calculate" if reg have more valuehands than bluffs...

You have to learn from experience what sort of range he has by river and anything else that might give you a clue. Against an aggressive player you won't always be right.

The key things to look at here. What does he call turn with? Up till that point his range is very wide but your turn bet should clear out most of his random garbage. Does he call a single bet with any pair? Does he need an actual draw? How good of a draw? Will he call with garbage in the hopes of bluffing you off river? Does he hate to give up hands to the first bet? Would he continue betting on turn with his actual value hands? What about his draws? Every trap with a monster? Does villain think he can push you around?

At the next level if villain is think about these things. Does he put any bluffs/semi-bluffs in your range? Could you be betting just because he didn't? How weak of a hand does he figure you bet on turn?

On the river the biggest clue you have is his bet sizing. I probably means something but it will vary a bit from player to player. In general around 3/4 of pot is polarized between bluffs and actually having a 5.

Are you thinking of folding or raising?

Smells like a classic top pair betting so he doesnt have to face a decision/bigger bet if checked to you. Put yourself in regs shoes. If he would have checked what would you normally bet in this spot? What do you normally call with in preflop spots like this?

If he is good and youd normally check back this river or bet less hes probably value betting and you are beat.

I might raise if I had a weak hand here and I thought reg was just OK. AP ez call.