1/2 NL. 10 players. Been at the table about 2 hours, all other parties have been present for the whole time. Table is rather typical and passive. 2 hands of note: 1. Hero got his stack by taking a bet/bet line on a flopped trips. Rivered a full house that completed a flush. Opponent shoved and I snapped with the FH to scoop. 2. Hero made a bad fold to V1 and, while I didnt show, V2 who is on my right to me heard me complaining about my bad fold. (Yes, I should keep my trap shut.)

V1 UTG: YWG, had the biggest stack (500+) when H sat down but has given a bit of it away. Generally TAG. Always comes in for a raise when he's first in and usually raises his button if limped to. He typically takes an aggro line in pots. Has shown down some losers but that didn't stop his aggro line.

V2 MP: YAG can show aggression but less active than V1 (but could be card dead). He typically bets when he has something. He's bet 2nd pair on a connected board and has made some lose calls and been good with low pairs.

H: MP+1, SMAWG (sexy middle aged white guy). V2 is directly on my right, Been quiet due to not getting cards other than the big win noted above.

OTTH:

UTG V1 (~$350) opens to $7. This is low for him as he usually opens for 12. I put this as a silly juicer with something like a mid/low pair, 2 broadway, or suited connectors and suited aces.

MP V2 (~400) calls. I put on similar range to V1. I rule out AA/KK since he didn't raise.

Hero MP+1 ($570) QQ. Time to raise. There are 5 people left and I want to thin the field since I know that $7 will do nothing but drag in bodies. I raise to $26. Folds around to V1 who calls and V2 calls.

I think my hand is good at this point. I think if either one of them had AA/KK they would have loved my raise and would have jumped on it.

Flop: pot: $73 after rake AK4r

V1 check
V2 Check
H: Hrm. On the up side, it hits my range, if they are paying attention. On the down side, I'm not getting anyone off an A or K. If I don't bet, I expect one of them will take a stab and then I'm stuck wondering where I am. I decide to do what I would do if I hit the flop and bet. I'll evaluate if raised. H bets $30

V1 fold
V2 call

So I'm thinking V2 has a piece. I'm still down with no AA/KK but think ace face, A4 or 44 are options.

Turn: pot: $133 AK4Qr

V2 check

H: I hit my set. Let's bet! H bets $70
V2: call. He certainly has something. I think AK/A4/AQ/44 are now the most likely.

River: pot $273. AK4Q6r

V2: bets $230

H: Damn. I'm still confident that AA/KK aren't in his range given everything else. Given that he's been making some odd moves with 2nd pair and such, I think AK/AQ/KQ/A4 are all possible but what I'm really thinking is 44. He calls 2 raises pre and doesn't raise. He's calls that flop and turn and leads out on river. It feels like 44 in the moment.

But could it be J10? Does J10 call a $26 bet pre and then call $30 on a gut shot? Can he call that flop bet with no pair and only 4 outs? Is he bluffing? He knows hero made a bad fold earlier, is he trying to make it happen again?

It's $230 to win $503. Easy call or fold?

jam as played you don't have too much left

the flop had a queen in it, I assume it's a typp but still cbet more to about 45 if your gonna bet

Folding river would be terrible. Also prefer check flop.

grunch

Preflop is great.

Flop bet is criminally bad imo. Betting with, like 99 can make some sense to get people to fold hands that have more outs than they think (and TT/JJ), but QQ doesn't have that problem and should always be a check here. Don't worry about getting bet into. You're gonna check AA/KK here a good portion of the time too (probably only AA).

As played, I'm pretty sure I would find a value shove here against two pair or a smaller set. Sure he can have JT, but that's basically the only hand that beats you and there's not much left in stacks here.

If you had, like a pot sized raise behind I'd be fine with flatting river.

The question would be what value hands are you folding river? Maybe something like KQo that you squeezed with preflop and checked behind on the flop is a good candidate. Or even AQ potentially. or A4s that you squeezed with, although that probably bets the flop.

Love pre.

I think, like others we check flop. But if you're going to bet at it, I'd go 2/3.

We're beat by J10, I don't think it's AA or KK, because of your reads. Jam turn. Personally I'm praying for AK.

AP Call Call Call river.

shoving river obviously, you beat a lot more hands than beats you.

i don't mind raising,flop vs a lot of people for kind of protection/ knowing where your at.

a lot of hands just have to fold on this flop.

the problem is if you get called then obvious turn and river are really tricky. which is why other guys don't like raising the flop.

I actually like the cbet on the flop, and I like the size. Im pretty much gonna bet 30 with my entire range here, checking back can be ok for some players, but I think the hand plays much smoother if we just cbet. The problem with checking is that we have to play a game of chicken when we get bet into on the turn and often just have to fold where sometimes we’re getting bluffed. Though I’ve heard this spot is described as “the great debacle” and I know there are 2 schools of thought both with valid reasons I don’t fault a check.
As played shove the riv he can have all those hands we beat and not AA or KK

I don't think c-betting 100% of your hands here is the correct balanced strategy. Our opponents are going to have Ax type hands a lot here so I think giving up with our weakest air and our bigger underpairs is better than c-betting them. So developing a balanced range of bluffs and strong hands in our betting range and air, nuts, and mediocre hands in our checking range is going to be more profitable than betting all of our hands.

If we check, we don't have to play a game of chicken when someone bets. We can just fold. They're not going to be bluffing us often enough, and we have much better hands that we can check flop and call down with.

Right, that’s my understanding of “the great debacle”
We can check QQ here which is arguably the better way to play the hand in a vacuum, but in order to balance this play we will have to check back some strong hands on the flop as well (which would benefit for a cbet in a vacuum).
So the trade off is that we have to play some AX hands sub-optimally to protect our check back range, or we could play QQ, KT, ETC sub-optimally by cbetting.
I think it gets more interesting on different flop textures, but AK4r is just so dry we can cbet near 100% as the pfr we have such a range advantage

Also I agree we should just give up with some of our weakest air.

Interesting. Hadn't heard that term before now.

This is a call OTR I think. His hands are almost certainly like A6, missed draws, 44 and some really weird played straights. Against that whole range maybe you get a call from A6 and 44 but it's a way ahead, way behind situation. I'm NEVER folding but I'd say 85% call, 15% jam.

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What makes you think checking back A5s, or even AA, on AK4r is playing those hands suboptimally?
Checking back also helps strengthen our checkback range where we can continue ott with weaker Ax and monsters, and easily fold 99-QQ without getting exploited too much.



AP, this is an easy call on the river.
And OP, for the love of god, bet bigger on the turn

The exact context I first heard it is the situation where we open TT in the CO, and a TAG 3bets us on the Button by 3x or more. 100bb deep. And the idea is that we could 4b or flat call.
So here’s the problem: if we 4b Get it in it seems like a bit of an overplay.
But if we flat call our range is relatively face up to hands like 99-JJ or AQ. And the only way to balance the range would be to flat call some monsters occasionally (AK, AA, KK) but this would be playing these hands sub-optimally in many respects.

RE: The Great Debacle:
I like flatting AA against the late position 3-bet because, against thinking players, the late position 3-bet might have a wider range which means they are folding to the 4bet more often so using AA and maybe AKs to balance my flats with 99-JJ feels good to me.

RE: The hand in question:
I am jamming here, he has a lot of combos of AK, A4s, and A6s as well as 44 and he is probably calling off with all of these for this stack size. He has a lot more of those hands than the odd JT or even AA.

Grunch

I think V can absolutely have JT here. I see terrible preflop calls and terrible flop calls with gutshots all the time in my game so it's certainly possible. Is it likely though? What else would take this line?

If it's a bluff it's probably JJ/TT - definitely losing to you when you bet turn (and flop really) but still has 6 outs against your AK/AQ and 4 vs your sets. But can V really think you're capable of folding a set or two-pair? Shouldn't you cursing yourself for making a bad fold recently incline him to think now is a bad time to bluff? Does it really make any difference that he blocks the nuts given its pretty unlikely you 3bet JT Vs UTG open?

Can 44/AK play this way? AK can because it blocks two of your sets and it still beats AQ and any AXs bluff 3bets you might have in your preflop range.

44 doesn't block any of your sets but it beats all your 18 combos of 2-pair and is only beaten by your 9 combos of sets.

But does V2 really want to play AK/44 slowly then go big on the river? Shouldn't he be a bit worried and prefer to keep the betting small so he can get to showdown? Possibly but possibly not. Your bet sizing isn't small but it isn't big either. It's not looking like you're trying to get stacks in so maybe V is cautious on flop but after your turn bet he decides you're not super strong and he can go for value against your AXs.

Cam V2 have AA/KK? I seriously doubt it after he flats both UTG's raise and your 3bet.

Summing up: V2 has been seen betting weak hands and making loose calls. He's aware you are annoyed at folding the best hand recently. The only hands he can have that beat you are unlikely. You've played postflop like you're trying to avoid getting stacks in.

I think that he's more likely to be mistakenly value betting 44 here than he has JTs but it's close IMO. You are getting slightly better than 2 to 1. You only need to be correct 30% of the time.

I wouldn't be tremendously surprised to see JTs, I think low stakes villains generally like to reserve their big bets for the nuts and he is betting 115bb here so it's an absolutely big bet. It's just that given he can have other strong hands that you beat and there's a slim chance he bluffs JJ/TT here and he's known to bet weak hands - there's just too much chance you're winning here to ever fold.

I call.

Reading other feedback:

I agree with the check flop crowd - so many AX flatting Vs 3bets (not a good idea but they do it anyway). Also concur with a balanced checking and betting range here as per IamAllInNow post #8.

JohnHHoliday makes good points too: I can well believe V has A4s/A6s here - makes perfect sense.

I didn't realise we had anything behind but yeah looks like about $50 - I would just shove that in. I don't think it means much that V didn't just shove himself.

One more thought on V2 having JTs: if he did turn the nuts he surely raises your turn bet some of the time thinking you're tied on with so much of your range and not wanting a J, T or board pair to ruin his hand on the river? Just one more reason to think you're winning here.

Yes would call or shove river as played, never folding.

Would also start flop with a check and go from there.

Good review. It's much like my thinking was at the time. I put J10 and 44 as roughly equal in probability. 44 made the most sense but I thought somehow he could have called the 4 outer with J10.

As it turns out, I called and he did call the 4 outer on the flop with J10. I figured 44 or worse was more likely than J10 so was OK with my choice. I wanted to post it here to make sure I wasn't too far off.