Effective stacks 300. Villain is an aggroish lady who thinks I'm FOS. She seems to like to minraise flop alot which is annoying. Couple hands:

I open to 15 in MP with AJo. She calls on BTN effective 80. HU to a flop of:

JJ9 rainbow (30)
I bet 15 and she makes it 30. I call.

Turn 3 (90)
Goes check check. I'm thinking almost a bet here ugh.

River 5 completing bd flush. I check, she goes ai, and I call. She mucks.

Next hand:
Open 66 in MP with black 66. She calls in SB effective 300 (she rebought). HU to a flop of:

T54ss (30)
She checks. I bet 20 and she calls. Thinking check is probably better against this player.

Turn Ks (70)
FD completes and she bets out 40 and I fold.


OTTH:
Open 76s from HJ. She calls in the blinds (300 effective). HU to the flop:

T62 one of my suit (30)
Checks and I bet 15. She min-raises to 30 and I call.

Turn 3 another of my suit (90)
She checks and I bet 50. Make it bigger here?

River is 8 completing flush (180)
She goes allin. Can I ever fold here? What if no straight is possible (I forget exact ranks here).

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HJ would be too early at my typical table to be opening anything speculative, but at your table it looks like a small raise has somehow got this HU in position, so know your table obviously and good result. Although with her in the SB (and thinking we're FOS) there is a very good chance we have little FE preflop or postflop (again making raising kinda meh especially if with her in the mix we can expect other callers).

Since she is so aggro and we'll often be facing check/raises and donks and bluffs, I think my plan would be to attempt to get to later streets as cheaply as possible and not build a big pot and showdown. So I check behind on the flop. I guess against her we have to call the check/minraise but in general I'm not in love with how big this pot is getting against her with our weak hand.

I would actually check behind on the turn too. We've picked up equity so getting check/raised again (which she is aggro enough to do) would be a disaster having to fold (which we'd have to do unless it's another ******o minraise). If she has air (which is likely drawing fairly slim) we're fine setting up a river bluffcatcher by weakly checking behind. We're not ahead of much that calls a turn bet on this drawless flop. UI, we have a pretty weak hand that isn't looking to build a big pot, but it does have showdown now. And since we have a FOS image, our backdoor flush draw will get payed off always, so we have awesome IO. Are we betting as a bluff? I think our hand is too strong for that.

I snap call the river. Some gutshots have already gotten there and she may have already had us crushed on the flop/turn or even preflop (lol AA/etc.) or binked two pair / lol set on the river. Never folding a hand as strong as a backdoor flush against bluffy her for a ~PSB.

I'd actually play the first 3 streets differently, but that's me I guess.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Against this player, no, I don't think you can fold with the way the hand was played. She should not be putting you on a flush and could easily be bluffing at the "scare" card. What flush does she have? I guess it could be with a T if the T on board is not part of the flush. Would really help to know if the T was part of the flush or not. I still think you have to call, though.

I think turn size was OK. Maybe could go as high as $75, but I don't think the results would be too different vs. this player. Checking behind on the turn is OK, too, but you would have to call a river bet from her. I prefer the bet.

@ Java and OP

I'm unclear what we are attempting with the turn bet. Are we bluffing? Semi-bluffing? Going for value?

Against someone who thinks we are FOS and with the overall UI weakness of our hand (although one that has some showdown bluffcatcher value UI and can improve for great IO), I don't see the point, imo.

GcluelessbettingnoobG

It honestly sounds like she's just clicking buttons. Also, anyone with an $80 stack at 1/3 can't ever be amazing...

With her spewy image and play, I'm never folding this here. She has weirdly played sets, 2Ps, even some gutters. I think we can infer from the AJ hand that her min-raise otf isn't huge strength, but likely a medium hand trying to set a price or see where it's at. You didn't mention which card otf was your suit, so if it was the deuce, she could have had Txss otf, but otherwise it's hard to see what you lose to. I'm calling this and feeling pretty happy about it. She's got lots of wonky BS in her range that you beat as well as value that you have crushed.

Also agree that the turn should be a check back. Time to pot control and protect our equity, bc 2P trips and the flush are all probably good otr.

I like betting the turn against this player to build the pot a little. If she goes over the top, we can fold, but she hasn't done that on the turn yet. We have a few of outs on the river, and against her our 7 could be good. Who knows? We haven't seen a hand. Her check on the turn looks pretty weak. She could have called the flop with overs for all we know -- of course, this makes the river a bit scarier.

I don't mind a check on the turn for pot control.

Just curious, if we had checked and she had bet river, do you guys just call or do you raise? What if she shoved river?

If we check turn and she bets river, I'm always raising. She's gonna fold a lot but she can also talk herself into calling with worse hands. Sets probably don't get away, 2P thinks about it, even top top might find the call since it's this opponent. I think just calling leaves value on the table. A BDF is disguised and super strong on this board. Not raising is saying we don't like money.

With a FOS image and us weakly checking back on turn and then hitting a backdoor flush on the river, I'm shoving river all day against her donk.

@ Java, I'm still not sure why we would want to build the pot a little on the turn if we're clearly a big dog when called (which we would be, no?). And while a check/raise might be unlikely, it is still a disaster if it folds us out of the hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG

No, I don't think we would be. That's the point.

So you think the bet is for pure value, even when called?

My guess is that when called on the turn we're typically in the neighbourhood of a ~3:1 dog. I don't know, maybe my ranging of what is calling us on the turn is too pessimistic.

Gwe'llagreetodisagreethenG

She might be the type to call the flop with overs and will call again on non-scary turn. Unfortunately, her call on the turn is a bit scary because if she does have overs, they could easily be suited and now she's hit the river. She could also be calling with a T or even 88/99, but less likely.

The beauty is that she could be calling the turn with the plan to shove most rivers, especially a flush river, knowing that H folded on the scare card in a previous hand.

We have not seen a hand from her (as far as I know), so I don't mind the bet on the turn. If she folds, I just won with a pair of 7s. Not a bad outcome.

Maybe we play against different types of opponents, but when a turn bet is called in my game, Tx/99/88/etc. (i.e. hands that we are a ~3:1 dog against) show up here >>>>>>>>>> overcards (which show up almost never, with the only exception of the backdoor flush draw). Admittedly, there are probably some other hands in the mix that might call a turn bet that we are actually ahead of (gutshots, worse 6x), and it's possible (?) maybe we get a better hand to fold (bigger 6x or 88?) although against someone who thinks we're FOS, meh.

GcluelessNLnoobG

what is the question here? i keep re-checking the HH to make sure the board isn't paired. this is a fist pump snap call.

it's a bit relevant whether or not the T is the flush suit though. i would not expect this villain to min raise flop with ATs because she's scared of AK or something dumb. not only do we beat value hands, she's shown she is capable of min-clicking flop and just bluff shoving river.

this HH sounds like a clear backdoor flush over flush cooler.

@Javanewt I'm shoving river for value in that case.

The current question is whether to bet or check the turn.

I think most of us agree river is a call.

Thx guys.

I bet the turn because I thought it's so rare to see someone c/r then check and have a hand they will call with often. More often than not is a bluff gone wrong and I think I'm ahead.

If we check turn, I think the question then is what cards we call/fold to a bet and what size bets without improvement.


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check turn
snap river