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Ridiculous straddle shove pre?

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05-07-2017 , 05:19 PM

Turtol

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 492

1/3 hero has $286

$6 straddle UTG $15 blind raise UTG+1 even drunker guy blind bet $30

I'm first to act with AJo. Shove this in pre because 10bbs effective? I'm not sure on my non ante shoves tbh, but I guess the $10 additional blinds is half an ante

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05-07-2017 , 05:26 PM

Minatorr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 5,235

Yeah seems fine

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05-07-2017 , 05:27 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

How much is $286 worth to you?

You're going to win $54 a lot of the time and lose $286 some of the time and win more than $54 pretty rarely. It's EV+ but really high variance so it kind of depends whether you can laugh off a buyin.

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05-07-2017 , 05:36 PM

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Yeah, your stack size falls just within the Goldilocks zone for an ISO shove as long as the drunks are ready to call off wide/often.

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05-07-2017 , 06:25 PM

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

This greatly depends on the resolution to your PG&C. Is this debt money?

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05-07-2017 , 06:54 PM

Turtol

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 492

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

I want the most +EV line every time regardless of variance

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amanaplan

Yeah, your stack size falls just within the Goldilocks zone for an ISO shove as long as the drunks are ready to call off wide/often.

Not sure if they're calling correctly here, probably a bit too loose but I think I'd rather take the $54 variance free doll hairs than GII as a 60-70% fave for an extra $270

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05-07-2017 , 07:03 PM

sw_emigre

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,671

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turtol

I want the most +EV line every time regardless of variance

Well do the math on what V's are likely to call with what hands. People left to act: what will they call with, and how often will they wake up with those hands? How wide will Mr. Blind Bet call if it's folded back to him,or if you got 1-2 callers? We don't even know if it's a 9- or 10-handed table, if anyone is walking, etc.

I think people who aren't at the table have no idea if people behind you will call or overshove with TT or JJ or AQ or AT or JTs.

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05-07-2017 , 07:06 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turtol

I want the most +EV line every time regardless of variance

Then if you'd raise AJo 5 off BTN in a FR game then you should shove here.

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05-07-2017 , 07:39 PM

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turtol

Not sure if they're calling correctly here, probably a bit too loose but I think I'd rather take the $54 variance free doll hairs than GII as a 60-70% fave for an extra $270

You can do the math on that, but what I was referring to mostly was how your stack size is critical to the success of the play under these special circumstances.
You'd like to have tons of FE against the 6 sobers behind you without spewing while not being too deep to where the third drunk straddler has to fold too many hands with which he might have wanted to gamboool. AJo might not even ordinarily be played first to act to begin with, but if you are looking for EV then AJo isn't even near the bottom of your range at this depth until you start to get deeper effective stacks (at which point you would be better off w a different open sizing/different range)

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05-07-2017 , 08:03 PM

#10

Redskins 47

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,103

Sure

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05-07-2017 , 08:59 PM

#11

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

LOL at calling this 10BBs effective.

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05-07-2017 , 09:32 PM

#12

Breadfish666

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 251

Sounds like a good game.

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05-07-2017 , 10:51 PM

#13

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

Let's assume that everyone's calling range is QQ+, AK. That's 2.56% chance of each of them calling. There are nine of them. So you're getting called approximately 21% of the time, and in that case you will have 25% equity in a $629 pot, which is worth $157.25, or a loss of $129.

79% of the time, no one calls. You win $51 dollars.

Overall, a shove has a +EV of about $15.

If we include AQ in people's calling ranges, the EV is about -$3. If their range gets any looser, the EV starts to turn positive again.

So shoving is almost certainly +EV.

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05-08-2017 , 12:36 PM

#14

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,142

I'm assuming 10 handed table and we're like UTG+3? I'm guessing we have too many people behind us that could wake up with a better hand, so I'd fold (noting that I fold AJo in EP in normal situations for the exact same reason). If this was folded to us in LP it would be an easier shove.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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05-08-2017 , 12:38 PM

#15

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,488

$100

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05-08-2017 , 12:40 PM

#16

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,488

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turtol

I want the most +EV line every time regardless of variance

I think I'd rather take the $54 variance free doll hairs than GII as a 60-70% fave for an extra $270

Does not compute.

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05-08-2017 , 02:50 PM

#17

ronrabbit

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,662

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

Do you actually ever play a hand....or do you just go to the casino to drink coffee???...... You can't really open fold AJo in mid position? You must have a vpip of 8% or something mad like that?

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05-08-2017 , 02:54 PM

#18

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,142

I'm actually trying to lower my VPIP because I believe I'm too loose (for realz).

Git'snotaboutplayinghands,it'saboutwinningmoneyG

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05-08-2017 , 03:01 PM

#19

ronrabbit

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,662

Do you have an associated bluff range? Or just a narrow value heavy range...and if so how do you manage to get any action at all...
In my casino I'm viewed as a nit, and I feel like Im much more liberal pre than most posters on here

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05-08-2017 , 03:03 PM

#20

Jmrode67

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 858

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

some of the time and win more than $54 pretty rarely.

I don't think this is all that accurate. We have a pretty good shot at getting called by worse from two drunk guys butting in $15 / $30 pre blind.

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05-08-2017 , 03:05 PM

#21

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,142

@ ron

People don't come to the casino to fold. Last session out I 3bet KK twice (once limp/reraising it) and got action both times. You can't crack my KK by folding preflop.

Postflop I do believe it is getting harder to get paid off with my image (especially OOP), which is why I'm now tightening up my EP/MP preflop range.

G/derailG

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05-08-2017 , 03:26 PM

#22

ronrabbit

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,662

I find that villans, especially if I have been card dead for a while just always auto think I have kk and want to cracked it, so will get calls pre- but then there continuing range post-flop I pretty nutted.... I have started making a point of showing villans some of the times when I am monkeying....simple raise pre and c-bet with junk, the show just so they start to question things a little...
They think I'm a nit because I don't play 50% vpip like they do, can't imagine what they would think if I played your range... Maybe I'll try it tommorow....

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05-08-2017 , 04:44 PM

#23

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

You might want to reconsider this with a tight image given I'd be folding to your shove >98% of the time from any position.

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05-08-2017 , 04:58 PM

#24

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,142

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amanaplan

You might want to reconsider this with a tight image given I'd be folding to your shove >98% of the time from any position.

Meh, you might fold against my image, but why would TT+/AK/AQ? Someone could probably do the maths to figure it out, but fairly decent chance someone wakes up with that (I think?).

GcluelessmathsnoobG