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08-10-2015 , 05:40 PM
If 3betting to $60 means we could be abandoning ($75 + $24 + $60) for the sake of getting $35 more value, then I don't know.

It would be nice if someone could come up with a formula that could calculate EV neutral point at x% frequency in which we would have to raise/fold, and maybe calculate other decision points that include raise/call, and instances in which H simply raises and V would call.
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08-10-2015 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I actually think a raise is great against JhJd and even sometimes AhTh.

I really don't expect the average 1/2 villain to fold an overpair to a raise. I also think TPTK will stick around if we think carefully about our sizing.
You're essentially targeting a small % of V's range that also happens to be V's bet/call range.
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08-10-2015 , 05:53 PM
I'd also like to see the math if anyone wants to give it a try. Otherwise, I may have some time in a few days. I'd just make the math a raise to 85 on the flop, not 60. Then obviously you need to look at calling ranges, folding ranges, and 3-betting ranges. And you can probably make the assumption we fold to a 3-bet. That should about do it.

This will look at flop in a vacuum.

I probably wouldn't consider it an abandonment on the flop of 75+24+80 = 179.

If we only have 25% equity vs. a 3-bet, on the flop we're only abandoning our current share in the flop pot, which is 0.25 * (75+24+80) = 44.

And if we only get 3-bet 10% of the time, the frequency weighted amount we're abandoning on the flop is more like 0.10 * 44 = $4.40.

Again, that totally ignores turn and river, which bring in a lot more complexity. They're also the most important streets for obvious reasons. Do we win more because a club can come and V can have a worse flush? Or do other flushes shut down, especially weaker flushes, on the 4th club? Or do we win less against other hands that aren't flushes when a club and other scare cards come in? What happens to those pair + draw hands against which AA is a 15:1 flop favorite? What hands appear in V's range in what frequencies? Can we keep building the pot against worse on the turn and river? How large? Can we actually ever get away from worse if V makes 1/2 PSBs and we don't improve? It gets complex.

But looking at the flop is a start, and I'd be interested to see some EV calculations.
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08-10-2015 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I probably wouldn't consider it an abandonment on the flop of 75+24+80 = 179.

If we only have 25% equity vs. a 3-bet, on the flop we're only abandoning our current share in the flop pot, which is 0.25 * (75+24+80) = 44.

And if we only get 3-bet 10% of the time, the frequency weighted amount we're abandoning on the flop is more like 0.10 * 44 = $4.40.
This is wrong.

If we are folding every time V 3bets us and frequency of 3bet is 10%, we are abandoning $8 (10% of our $80 raise) + whatever equity we think we have at this moment for the $99 pot * 10%.
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