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Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max

12-11-2016 , 05:34 PM
Haven't posted in a while, but here we go.

Hero (covers) has been playing quite LAG, and has a LAG image for sure.

V (300) has re-bought a couple times and is playing what I consider "bad LAG". (He was originally 2 seats to my left and I decided to move to the other side of the table because he was raising my limps too often -- and I only limp in late position after many limps w/ hands that I think have high implied odds. So, I decided to just eliminate that and move altogether)

OTTH:

Hero raises 15 in HJ, only V calls in SB.

Flop (30): K52cc. V checks, Hero r20, V calls.

Turn (70): 8x. V checks, Hero r50, V calls.

River (170): 6x. V checks, Hero?

I know that on the flop and turn my hand is def clear value bets. Does the river change anything? Value bet or check? If it's a bet, how much?
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 05:40 PM
Value bet. 110
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 05:48 PM
If you think villain is bad enough then bet/fold otherwise checking is fine. Against a generic bad LAG I favor bet/fold because he will pay off with single pairs thinking your barreling air sometimes. I'm also checking some of the time unless villain is really bad, if you always bet this you just setup villain to trap you.

This is a judgement call on your part about just how bad, how sticky your villain is and how often he might be trapping with a better hand. Some of the low hands that stick around on flop are now two pair or straights, the totally whiffed draws don't pay you off. How many JJ/TT type hands will villain pay you off with and how does he play a set? Will he try to bluff raise you on the river?
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 06:05 PM
Never bet/folding the river here.

If you bet $110, pot will be $390 if he shoves. Are you really folding for $105 more?

This is a pretty good runout for AK. I'm looking to get three streets here from KQ, KJ.

Easy value bet.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 06:17 PM
$75-$95 on river. Never checking. I think closer to $100.

Trying to level V into calling 67s and value town him on Kx hands.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 06:18 PM
I would have overbet every street. He has lots of Kx, pair+FD, 34 ott to get value from. The riv improves him in spots, but I want the pot to be huge heading to the riv.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I would have overbet every street. He has lots of Kx, pair+FD, 34 ott to get value from. The riv improves him in spots, but I want the pot to be huge heading to the riv.
No need to over bet. You want calls. I don't see a lot to suggest over bet. Care to elaborate besides he has draws that call/pairs that call. He could of easily bricked that flop. It's relatively dry.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 06:47 PM
No way to comment without knowing how he plays the river. If he's spewy on later streets then playing for a bigger pot is fine.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 07:41 PM
i dont like bet/fold either. if villain is bad lag, he can certainly turn any FD or any other random holding into a bluff.

any reads on villain on his post-flop play? i.e. do you think he would raise flop/turn vs you with a naked flush draw? does he get trappy with monsters?

as is, I lean toward betting $100 for value on the river. whether or not we call off the shove is going to have to be dependent a lot on villains post flop tendencies. would he check until the river with a set? would he x/c with an oesd? or would he be more like to x/r flop and turn with hands like 34s/any FD?

have to say though that even bad LAGs (unless really awful) will not bluff x/shove the river for just like $100-130 more if they view H as competent at all. bet/folding for just $100-130 more seems really bad - but his V really ever bluffing? value shoving worse? idk.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 07:46 PM
Value betting for sure. Probably around $90. Never folding to a raise from this player. We should have heard from hands that beat TPTK on the turn.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dochrohan
No need to over bet. You want calls. I don't see a lot to suggest over bet. Care to elaborate besides he has draws that call/pairs that call. He could of easily bricked that flop. It's relatively dry.
I'm inferring a bit from OPs description that this V likes playing pots loose and fast. My prime directive against these types is to max exploit/make the most money with the strongest hands in my range no matter how big my range advantage/exploitably bad my sizing is.
Here, it is a 'relatively dry' flop, but the presence of the FD/wheel gutters/6xs gutters/oesd allows for overbets given he has lots of those FTB. I might lose a steeet from 1 pair hands, but it's a tradeoff that I think is more than made up for EV wise by forcing him to commit more money as early in the hand as possible in addition to inducing a spazz we can snap off only 100bb deep w the top of our range.
I'm aware the sizings hero chose are more standard, but when playing a V whose range depends on seeing rivers, I tend not to want to get there with too much eff stack.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-11-2016 , 10:51 PM
Nice. I thought it was a clear value spot too. TPTK, pretty dry run out vs a c/c, c/c, c/? line.

I actually bet more than everyone's suggestions. $120.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-12-2016 , 03:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I'm inferring a bit from OPs description that this V likes playing pots loose and fast. My prime directive against these types is to max exploit/make the most money with the strongest hands in my range no matter how big my range advantage/exploitably bad my sizing is.
Here, it is a 'relatively dry' flop, but the presence of the FD/wheel gutters/6xs gutters/oesd allows for overbets given he has lots of those FTB. I might lose a steeet from 1 pair hands, but it's a tradeoff that I think is more than made up for EV wise by forcing him to commit more money as early in the hand as possible in addition to inducing a spazz we can snap off only 100bb deep w the top of our range.
I'm aware the sizings hero chose are more standard, but when playing a V whose range depends on seeing rivers, I tend not to want to get there with too much eff stack.
Seems fine if you're always doing it vs him to set up shove on rivers with this stack depth. I'm just slightly worried about those PPs that find a fold on turn to our sizing when it bricks another low card, since we block a lot of Kx.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 02:09 PM
I like our seat change, nice.

Preflop looks obvious.

We've setup an SPR of 9.5. Are we cool stacking off to this SPR against this guy? If so, just bet/bet/bet for stacks, and don't fold to a raise. Personally, I think this is a bad SPR to stack off to against most opponents. And I'd hate to face a check/raise on the flop (which puts stacks in play). So I'd check this flop behind and setup 2 streets of value bets / bluffcatching.

As played, will this guy ever check/raise a worse hand? Are we cool calling a check/shove? We'll definitely have to have a plan in mind for this scenario, and be positive that if we are bet/folding that we're never folding the best hand (which would be a crime in this big pot). If he's aggro and can bluff/raise draws against weakness, you could bet small to attempt to induce a check/raise. If you think he has a K then obviously bet (probably shove for max value).

ETA: Looks like I'm the odd man out by checking back the flop. A loose aggro player has whiffed this flop far more often that he's hit anything, which is why I'm cool with giving him some bluffing / weak calldown rope. Also, I'm not sure what everyone's plan is if we get check/raised; are we stacking off? Course, this also might depend a bit on our image too (i.e. the more nitty our image is, the more we should be checking this back), imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 04:07 PM
I've no problem gii otf for a BI against a lagtard and I'm never ck flop against this kind of player whether it's K25s or K25r. As I said earlier I'm looking to pile the money in asap no matter how wildly strong my range is/how wildly high my FE should be.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I've no problem gii otf for a BI against a lagtard and I'm never ck flop against this kind of player whether it's K25s or K25r. As I said earlier I'm looking to pile the money in asap no matter how wildly strong my range is/how wildly high my FE should be.
That's great when he's got Kx.

Not so great when he doesn't have anything, which is most likely what he has.

I mean, if he's stacking off postflop with 77 to 3 bets, ok, fine.

Gno?G
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
That's great when he's got Kx.

Not so great when he doesn't have anything, which is most likely what he has.

I mean, if he's stacking off postflop with 77 to 3 bets, ok, fine.

Gno?G
A3-4/34/36/46/2x/5x/FD/KQ-K2/22-TT let's get committed by the turn when he opens the door.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
A3-4/34/36/46/2x/5x/FD/KQ-K2/22-TT let's get committed by the turn when he opens the door.
I have no problem with that *if* this opponent continues (or even overplays to commit) with a good amount of those hands by the turn. ETA: Also just realized we have a LAG image (not my usual nit image), so this definitely helps.

Gmorereadsneeded,imoG
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I have no problem with that *if* this opponent continues (or even overplays to commit) with a good amount of those hands by the turn. ETA: Also just realized we have a LAG image (not my usual nit image), so this definitely helps.

Gmorereadsneeded,imoG
I feel like the bigger sizing amps up that chance, particularly given hes a few buy-ins deep. Vs tend to either spew harder or call harder so amping up has its benefits.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 07:45 PM
The question in my mind is whether this is an "opposite" player. He's raising a ton before and now he's calling down an obvious TPTK hand? If he's bad in the sense that tries to trap as LAG when he has a monster, then this is a check behind. If he's a calling station (and not really a LAG), then bet.
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote
12-13-2016 , 08:44 PM
grunch:

bet/fold the river for $65
Red AKo HJ -- river decision -- 2/3 300max Quote

      
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