Quote:
Originally Posted by YoungStro
Live $2/5. Two weak loose-passive players limp, I open KQ in late position, reg button calls, and the two limpers call.
Flop: K87
Checks to me, and I cbet around 2/3 pot. One of the limpers calls.
Turn: 7
He checks to me and I bet $125 into $180 to get value from KJ/KT and charge the flush and straight draws. He thinks for a bit and jams in his remaining $300.
Now every time I'm in spots like this, I find myself thinking, "Okay, well I'm getting a decent price, and I think he might he just decide to ship it in with any king, fearing a draw and just deciding to go with his hand now that the turn didn't complete anything," and then I call. And (I feel like) I'm always always wrong. For example, in this last hand, he had 76.
Is calling here a mistake? Is my thought process mistaken? Are they not sticking it in with KJ and KT as much as I think they are? Cause it really seems like they always have it.
nobody can answer this question specifically. there are two general answers ...one easy to follow and one more complicated.
the first is that the most powerful tool to beat low stakes poker is the bet/fold. Most villains call too much and only raise with very strong hands, so when we have a moderate to strong hand like in this case, we keep betting for value until they 'tell us' that they have us beat, by raising.
the more difficult process and the one that gets you from 'beating' to a higher win rate is to start compiling ranges on your villains and then calculate how you fare against this range. It isn't always an exact science but you start with your perception of the villain and what you know about them (eg loose passive) after you raise and they call you think...what range of hands would they have called with pre (but not raised). then...of that range, what calls your flop bet but doesn't raise? so you're narrowing down their holdings
when that particular turn hits...you use that range to decide how you're doing against this range and the pros and cons of betting turn.
once you bet the turn (which you'd do if you think his range has enough dominated K or flush draws that you can get value from) and he raises, you have to work out what if any hands you beat, what odds you're getting etc etc
I realise the above seems formulaic and maybe obvious, but it's actually a real challenge to be disciplined enough to think this way in game but it's the only way you'll ever improve your decision making to the point where you're making decisions based on evidence and proper reads rather than feel and guesswork