Live $2/5. Two weak loose-passive players limp, I open KQ in late position, reg button calls, and the two limpers call.

Flop: K87

Checks to me, and I cbet around 2/3 pot. One of the limpers calls.

Turn: 7

He checks to me and I bet $125 into $180 to get value from KJ/KT and charge the flush and straight draws. He thinks for a bit and jams in his remaining $300.

Now every time I'm in spots like this, I find myself thinking, "Okay, well I'm getting a decent price, and I think he might he just decide to ship it in with any king, fearing a draw and just deciding to go with his hand now that the turn didn't complete anything," and then I call. And (I feel like) I'm always always wrong. For example, in this last hand, he had 76.

Is calling here a mistake? Is my thought process mistaken? Are they not sticking it in with KJ and KT as much as I think they are? Cause it really seems like they always have it.

If this is one of the weak passive limpers jamming it he is more likely to have it.




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Fold he has 76.

You're allowed to check a street. Not gonna get 3 streets from KJ KT typically and hand isn't strong enough to get stacks in.

nobody can answer this question specifically. there are two general answers ...one easy to follow and one more complicated.

the first is that the most powerful tool to beat low stakes poker is the bet/fold. Most villains call too much and only raise with very strong hands, so when we have a moderate to strong hand like in this case, we keep betting for value until they 'tell us' that they have us beat, by raising.

the more difficult process and the one that gets you from 'beating' to a higher win rate is to start compiling ranges on your villains and then calculate how you fare against this range. It isn't always an exact science but you start with your perception of the villain and what you know about them (eg loose passive) after you raise and they call you think...what range of hands would they have called with pre (but not raised). then...of that range, what calls your flop bet but doesn't raise? so you're narrowing down their holdings

when that particular turn hits...you use that range to decide how you're doing against this range and the pros and cons of betting turn.

once you bet the turn (which you'd do if you think his range has enough dominated K or flush draws that you can get value from) and he raises, you have to work out what if any hands you beat, what odds you're getting etc etc

I realise the above seems formulaic and maybe obvious, but it's actually a real challenge to be disciplined enough to think this way in game but it's the only way you'll ever improve your decision making to the point where you're making decisions based on evidence and proper reads rather than feel and guesswork

This is classic Baluga Theorem stuff. You're facing a checkraise jam on the turn from a loose-passive. Great time to reconsider the strength of one-pair hands. $600 pot and only $300 to call, but I don't think you'll get there often enough.

The 7s is a pretty good card for us, our equity improves against his flop calling range, I definitely like that you continued to bet.

This is a genuinely unfortunate spot, we need to have around 33% equity to call. I don't think he is going to jam too many flush draws on a paired board after just calling flop and against your continued aggression so let's say he jams 9Tcc and 56cc. Let's say for 7x he has A7s, 97s 75s, 76s. That would be 8 combos of trips. A lot of those combos some people would fold on the flop, but if he's the type of guy to jam a king I don't think he would be the type to fold a pair on the flop.

There are 12 combos of KJ/KT assuming he limps all of them pre, we would need him to be shoving 5 of them in order for calling to be profitable. That seems to be a bit optimistic, as a default I would fold but there are definitely some villains where I'm calling it off. If you had KJ or KT I would definitely fold, this is just close enough to consider calling.

And that street should be the river.

We don't have to always make the correct call. We just have to make it often enough to be +EV. And since these spots come up maybe once or twice a session, you can easily go through a long stretch without getting a good result on your decision.

These type of spots are exactly the type of decisions you need to examine at home with equilab or other software, analyse how well you do vs their range given odds, and then try to apply it towards simular situations.

Solid first post. Welcome to the forums!

Is it $300 more or $175 more? Decent-sized difference. In the latter case, I definitely call. I'd have to think about the former.

Also be more specific. What size did you raise to pre? Which limper called, and what position was he preflop? You want to give all the relevant information we would have if we were playing the hand instead of you, so that you can get the most accurate advice.

The key is "loose passive." This player is almost never raising without a big, made hand which beats TP. Another factor is stack size. I'm guessing the effective stacks were around 80 BB. At 60 BB, people will stack off somewhat light. At 80 BB, they usually have something.

Okay, I needed to do some math because it didn't add up for me.

I'd say this hand went bad for you starting preflop. When you say you raised the limpers from late position I'm assuming you mean either the CO or HJ, but you don't say how much you raise.

However, to get to a point where you bet 2/3 flop and the pot is $180 on the turn you needed to have raised to $20 (4bb).

IMO this is too small, I'd much prefer 6-7+bb dependent upon table dynamics.

BTN and 2 limpers call, blinds fold
Flop $87 (SPR - 4)
[Kc 8c 7d]

To have 300 remaining at the point described, effective stacks were €370 (74bb). Hmm, maybe that last comment was correct that what you mean is he jammed 425, 300 over your bet because that would be a 100bb stack. I'm thinking that's what happened, so then SPR is 5.5.

You bet $50, villain calls
Turn $187 ($430 eff)

This spot seems kind of tricky because of exactly what happens. When we get raised here, how do we proceed? I don't know, it isn't a great place to be at.

If instead we made our preflop raise 4+1/limper:

2 limp, Hero raises $30, BTN call, blinds fold, 2 limps call.

Flop $127 (470eff, SPR 3.7)
Flop [Kc 8c 7d]

Personally I'd bet 100 into this but let's use 2/3 and bet 85, 1 limper calls

Turn $297 ($385 eff)
Kc 8c 7d [7s]

Now we can rip it in and make him decide to call or fold. Sure sometimes he has a 7 that check/called or a weirdly played 88, but a limper has a lot of junky kings too. I'm not folding my king if I check to him and he jams, so I'll stick it in, hope to get paid by worse kings, shut out draws, and pay off his monsters.

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Loose-passive players probably just call the turn with a weaker king. Flush draws are more likely to shove the flop when the board isn’t paired and villain has higher equity.

V has a whole lot of 7's in his range that limp/call pre and call flop especially if he's last to act after the others fold. All of the 7xcc combos are still there, plus he can have 67/57/78/79/A7s/A7o sometimes/K7s/T7s/J7s/Q7s/etc. V's have flush draws way less often than people think they do. Yeah it's good to charge draws but you have to check back stronger hands and bet river for value or bluff catch sometimes too.

What are you doing in this spot with your other hands that can bet flop like 99/QQ/FDs/9Ts/etc? Do you sometimes go smaller if you do have a boat here?

I don't hate betting turn but I think you can go smaller on a board pairing card too. Draws might call a smaller bet and fold to a larger one, which is fine because people aren't going nuts on a paired board with a straight/flush anyway, and if they lead into you on the river after c/c twice they almost always have it.

Ya think? Weak, loose-passive players with KJ/KT are checkraising this board <5% of the time...and I think 5% is being generous.

I show back up and Venice 10 still making good posts.

You should reconsider your sizing on turn. Less is more I think, heads up.

When passive players all of a sudden get Aggro, they have a monster. Guys like this never check raise for 300 w a draw (unless they are on a hard tilt)


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I think you played the spot fine assuming you folded to the checkraise vs the described opponent. As another poster said, the 7 OTT is actually a good card for us as it lessens the chance he holds a 7, so his range is now more skewed to worse Kings, flush draws and str8 draws.

So IMO, the turn is an easy bet/fold as at this level, vs this type of opponent, their turn CRAI bluffing frequency is close to zero. What this means is that your bet is a free-roll...you continue to get value from hands you beat AND you can confidently fold when you are raised like this as it will be 1 out of 100 times where you are still ahead.

Only other comment I would make is that you could potentially size down a bit on the turn (say $95-$105) and still achieve the same result (charging draws/getting value from worse Kings), but save yourself an hour or 2 of earn when you have to fold. This adds up over longer time periods.

And as one other poster said, this is NOT a check spot IMO. The river is for checking depending on what comes...you still have a value hand until V tells you that you don't (like he did here).

Last thing...sounds like you may be on the bad side of variance right now in that you have run into these spots a bit more than a normal distribution would suggest. That sucks and is hard, but trust that bet/fold is still the best play OTT and keep playing it that way.

Best of luck.

Shorn

Following

Chalk it up to the variance and limited play-ability of short stack poker...You will always find yourself in these coin-flip spots OTT.

V's get a lot more courage to raise combo draws and TPmk when they know they have no more decisions to make...

V's may or may not be loose passive...but even a passive V would be fine jamming 56cc, 89cc, KJ, etc

Apologies. I'll be sure to include all the details in future posts. Looking back on this it was unclear and I was also wrong about one piece. It wasn't two limpers, it was a middle position limper (loose-passive with $370 to start the hand), then I opened in the hijack to $20 ($800 behind), button called ($500), big blind called ($500), and limper called.

So on the flop I cbet $50 into $80, just the limper called ($180 in the pot now), I fired $125 on the turn, and he check-raised all-in for an ADDITIONAL $300. So now it's $300 to win $605. Which you guys picked up on.

I think I agree with the general consensus of loose-passive isn't check-jamming here for these stacks too often without a better hand. So I'm going to just bet-fold a spot like this in the future.

And if he flats the turn and the river bricks we're sticking in the rest when checked to, right?