Live 1/2 (most hands have $5 button straddle, this hand did not).
Villain is tag winning reg. Hero is seen as fairly Lag (almost maniacal) but winning reg. Good history between us, would consider V a foe first but friend as well. Villain has sat out waiting for other tables to open as to avoid seats on hero's right in the past.
Most of the table is $200 or less, Hero has $1100, Villain has $600
Folds to villain in hijack, who opens for $10 (5bb has been standard at the table), Hero 3b to $27 from sb, one fold, Villain call.
Flop AT3r.
H check, V bets $30, H raise to $85, V raise to $200.
Stop here and think about Villain's range, we have blockers we will discuss later.
I put V HJ open at all pairs, KTo, KJs, QJs, all suited Aces, A8o.
I put continue range at AJs, AQo, 88+. He is pretty tight, but may open his range a bit vs hero.
We hold ATs, blocking his set combos. I really put him on TT/AA/ AK here. But as I thought about it, I think he knows he is not getting paid off by AQ here. We leave one combo of each AA and TT. I considered opening his range to 33 and AT after this action.
However, V knows I will rarely pay off his sets so I don't think 33 would be in his range. Which leaves us with the following combos:
(1) AA
(1) TT
(4) AT (although it is probably only one combo as V almost never shows up w/o it being suited)
(8) AK
He may think I would c/r bluff here w/ the broadway gutter and bdfd (which I probably would). But I'm not sure he comes back over the top w/ AK/AQ.
We're obviously not folding top two here, but let's dive into that range analysis
Gee, he doesn't think much of your c/r on the flop. So the question is how much of a Maniac are you at the table. You haven't told us enough to really know how light he'd 3bet you here.
Since you say you're a winning player, you're probably rarely if ever c/r light on a dry board. So I don't think he even does this with AK and he probably never calls you with AT pf. So you're up against sets. If you have TT or AA, then you put him all in. If not, you fold.
3-bet to a better sizing pre-flop. You don't want him to continue with his whole range.
Bet the flop.
As played, probably call flop and call any turn, since the only way villain 3-bets here is if he thinks you are FoS and is trying to re-bluff you, since it makes no sense for villain to 3-bet you with any value hand in this spot.
Ya I think he recognizes I won't call here w/ AQ, we are both pretty aggressive post. He knows I will push the action if I feel equities run close but I'm not going to gii w/ less than AK here (and probably not AK). I can see him raising lighter if I led out but not vs the c/r.
Like I said though, he knows I'm not paying him off light but I don't think he's capable of bluffing here. If there were a 8+ out draw I think it becomes a call as he will look to deny equity w/ AQ+. I ended up calling and we chopped, but the more I analyzed it, he probably wouldn't call pre w/ AT unless it was suited so there's only one combo left. Which means it is probably a set just 2/3 times. I justified the call at the table by weighting the amount of sets in his range to say he would slow play here 50% of the time. Just kinda a sick spot. Feel like I got pretty lucky w/ the chop.
Yes the 3b sizing is small, agree we should make it higher. As for the flop play, I play a ton of hands w/ villain and felt like this was a good spot to balance my flop check range. I really didn't put any gutshots in his range, yes a lot of better aces and some pairs that could get there. Felt pretty safe not denying equity and wasn't sure if we could get 3 streets of value from much less.
On the other hand, I feel like the delayed c-bet probably generates as many or more folds than the c-bet. Would love to dive into the c-bet or c/r decision though. I think there are a lot of variables and it probably doesn't increase/decrease our EV a ton one way or the other. I do have a hand I probably want to showdown though, and I like the idea of balancing vs this particular V. He is probably the most consistent winner in the cardroom (but pretty nitty and doesn't usually make a ton, just less variance).
