9 handed

Hero open AhAc on UTG 7$ (stack 200$)

OMC call on bb (stack 200$)

flop Qs6s7s (pot 15$)

omc donks 12$

hero calls

turn Jh, pot 39$

omc bet 22$

river 3c pot 83$

omc bet 16$

hero raises? or just call?

I might fold the flop to an OMC.

Now that you are at the river, call, but make him show first and muck if you are behind.

Raise flop,raise turn. AP raise river and as painful as it is i would fold to a jam.

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What? You have a one pair hand against old man coffee on a flush board, the question is whether he's got AQ/KQ enough here to warrant calling. I'd say given the small river betsizing he does and you're good, but I don't really see worse calling and I can easily see OMC having a flush.

Is he really an OMC? I feel like I have to ask this on every thread.

Like less than 10/5 VPIP/PFR. Making nitty folds. Playing ultra scared etc.

Why are we raising? I can get more behind a bluff than I can for value. If it's for value, then that won't work for sure. There is no way an OMC is calling this off with top pair. There is a chance he might fold less than a King high flush, but there aren't many lesser flushes in his range, and not that many King high flushes.

I call for price, but not expecting to be good.

I would call flop to make him honest and fold turn vs this bet size. A smaller size I call and call river again.
Don’t raise. He is only calling you with better hands. I could raise if I decided to convert my AA into bluff, making 2Ps and Sets fold. He have 2Ps, sets, straights and flushes played like this (makes total sense for me).

I think AA is too good to convert into a bluff so just use it as a bluffcatch or a value call vs some mad Q.

But i probably fold turn vs his 2ps combos (floped 2p or QJ) and flush combos and i think this is the best line on this hand.
Not too much to do.

If we are putting v on a hand that can make 2p or a straight on this board then is he really an omc? The only hands v can have that beat us(assuming he is a true omc) are 66 77 and QQ. Now how many hand can he call a raise with on the flop that we have beat? AQo, KQo, QJs,KK, JJ, TT, AKo. To me this flop is a must raise. What range would V have to call with preflop to make this a flat call?
On the turn assuming he did call a raise on the flop i can get behind a call much more. But considering the flop was a bet and a call and villain underbet the turn i still think its a click back at the least his sizing really doesnt make me think he has a 2pair plus hand. Even if we raise on the river we might still be able to fold to a jam. On the river with that sizing it is screaming showdown value. Raise.

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Disagree... an OMC can perfectly have 67suited QJ (with Js) and the ones you said.
He cold also have AQ KQ and are the only hands we beat.
Maybe. Just maybe, he cold have some 54suited that makes straight on the river and is desperate for value on the same time he is afraid of a flush.
If he is calling 2Ps, sets, straights and flushes we don’t have enough value to raise vs his KQ and AQ combos.

If he is not calling with 2ps, than he is not calling with AQ and KQ.

I really think that we can call Turn if we want (a fold is my favorite, tho), but raising this river for value is a big mistake. (A good bluff, but as I said, I just can’t transform AA into bluff hahaha)

EDIT:
Yes, I kinda like a raise Flop to protect our hand. Seens ok to me.
Raise flop, small bet turn and check back river

Call. You got 2.5 streets and a showdown against an omc, and you have other hands to raise here that call call flop and turn. He's unlikely bet calling worse either. I likely would have bet small otr had he checked to me as well - or even checked. Everything just gets so narrow and tight against an OMC, so your raising ranges have to be clear-cut-out-value the value only bet that you're raising in the first place. Guy has KK probably, but also has sets and stuff.

I dont raise flop because he can have a set and flush so i think is overplay my hand.

My plan was calldown(if not spade on turn/river) put him on AQ/KQ mostly and if he bet huge on turn/river even fold.

When he bet so small on river im thinking on a raise to get value to AQ/KQ but i think for a while if hes gona call this raise with those hands or just going to call with sets, and raise me back with flushes...

So i dont know if im missing value not raising this river or is good just call...

fold flop w/o spade
every 2p combo, tons of flushes, including all KsXs and suited gappers from the bb
how do you see the rest of the hand playing out? you think he x/f turns?

You called him an OMC? What data points do you have for that assessment?

So this is why every thread with the words OMC is a problem. In my world, there is no way an OMC ever calls 67s to a raise. These guys are playing less than 10/5, and often way tighter. OMCs are the guys who fold for hours on end waiting for hand after hand for AA or KK. In my book they almost never play 67s, especially calling a raise OOP.

That also from the BB having to put only 5 more on a hand that everybody else folds?

I miss expresses myself. I don’t think he is calling 76s 100% of the time, but can do, sometimes.
Poker is made of assumptions.
“I assume he is an OMC (even tho I don’t have more than 10h playing against this guy and it could be variance)”
“I assume a real OMC would donk close to pot with toppair on a wet board and keep beting”
“I assume....”

So I assume that on THIS situation he could be calling 50% of the time with 76s due to the size that comes to him after all the table folds.
They usually play an wider range from the bb, and someone who is defending with SCs on this situation can still have his 10/5 VPIP/PFR, playing AA KK from EP, some other premium from MP and broadways/pocketpair LP.

Even more when he is deep (by my little experience, OMCs usually play shorter. If he was shorter before and have won some big hand and doubled up, that could be another reason to widen ranges a little bit).

I'd raise more pre, think you're missing value in a live game only opening 3.5x.

Why not raise/fold flop? Doubt an OMC is ever 3bet semi-bluffing with one good spade here. We get value from Qx. Donk bets from straightforward players are often hands that feel like they deserve to win but are afraid of being sucked out on, so top pair on wet boards fit. Sure it's sometimes a set or flush, but there are more combos of Qx than 2p/flushes he'd call preflop with.

AP raise/fold river like $55. It has to be small enough for Qx to call, he should still have it often with this line (bet flop and turn for protection, block bet river?) Doesn't matter that it "looks weak" because we are expecting to get 3bet bluffed exactly never, if he does come overtop we can just fold. We can't afford to give up 20bb of value because we're scared.

To make a value bet we must have +50% equity vs his calling range.
So let’s do the maths.

COMBOS THAT WE WIN:
AsQh, AsQc, AsQd, AcQh, AcQc, AcQd (6 AQ combos once we block AhAd and there is a Qs on the board).
KQs = 3
KQo = 12-3 (Qs)= 9

Let’s say he cold do this 50% of the time with QT = 6 combos (dont think so, but...)

Total combos: 24 combos

-

COMBOS THAT WE LOSE:
76s = 3 combos
54s = 4 combos
Let’s say he will only have those 50% of time.
It makes 3.5 combos.

QJ = 12 combos

AKspades = 1
KJspades = 1
JTspades = 1
AJspades = 1
ATspades
KTspades
T9spades
J9spadesn(50%) = 0.5
# Total flushes = 7,5 combos

66 = 3
77 = 3
QQ = 3
# Total sets = 9

54s = 4 * 50% = 2

3.5 + 12 + 7.5 + 9 = 34 combos.

-

So we are loosing 34 and winning 24.

It’s not even close and we are not considering that he es defending doubtfull hands 100% of the time. If so the numbers go even scarier.

There is no value for a raise here IMO.

Considering that he could fold all 2ps and weak sets vs a big raise we have enough fold equity to justify a bluff. I think we do.
That’s why I am saying that a raise here must be with that objective if you can do it with AA.

Pre I might raise more, I play every street the same way and then call river.

+1

raising river is pointless here IMO. if he is an OMC, we never get called by worse and the only way i turn AA into a bluff here is if i have the As