2/5 NL 600 max buy in; at table about 1 hour; about 4am, so stacks are deeper than normal; all over 1000; I'm short stack with 700. pf raises normally around 25-35 often get 3 or more callers.

Hero (UTG): 50's; TAG; haven't played many hands in first hour; bought in for 600, got to 700 with a couple of small pots;

V1(BB): mid 20's; about 800 in stack; seems like knowledgeable player, but has been heavily drinking vodka shots and is really drunk; still seems to know his cards and what's going on, but his risk radar is down, and he calls too much and tries to make huge bluffs with air; but other times has nuts; so he can have almost anything in his hand.

V2(BU): mid 30's; quiet; has about 1500, but he had that when I sat down, and so I don't know how he got them. Hasn't played many hands, and has folded those to action on flop.

Preflop: Hero has AhKc UTG; leads out with raise to 30; 3 callers, including V2 on button and V1 in BB

Flop ($120) Ad9h7d V1 leads out from BB with a $100 bet donk bet. hero has TPTK. his action?

make it $240 and call a shove-make it look like he has fold equity.

Raising is the worst response. He's never calling with worse. That said, it seems that many LLSNL players love this move with a TP hand. I thank them for their generosity.

Drunk players play transparently. It is too early to fold TPTK, so I'll wait to see the turn.

Folding is by far the worst response.

I prefer raise to call here since he can def call or raise with worse aces. If we knew he held an ace no one here would want to run a bluff on him. He can def shove draws, and possibly some hands that are virtually drawing dead.

If we just flat I don't think the info we have helps us to play diamond turns that well. Or even t, j q turns that well if he bombs it. Basically him having a wide range and being aggressive is actually kinda bad for us on those turns.

And i probably flat far more than most players do in general.

Based on your description of V1 I'd either:

1) Flat and shove any brick turn
2) Raise all-in on the flop

If you raise the flop it has to be big enough to price out possible draws from the two other V's yet to act (kind of confusing based on your description but it is four-way right?); and in doing so you're near pot committed going to the turn.

Yes, there are two players to act after me.

lol at what is probably a massive preflop betsizing tell.

Well we definitely aren't folding so it really comes down to how confident you feel your TPTK is against V1's range right now. If you are confident you are ahead I favor shoving and hoping for a drunken call from a V1 draw. If V1 has 2P or better you're ~ 15%. The safer / lower variance play, obviously, is just to call but you'll need a plan in mind for:

1) Other two V's come over the top now
2) V1 donks a brick turn
3) V1 donks a flush or straight turn

Not sure what you mean by that. As I mentioned in OP, pf raises were always between 25-35, and almost always got multiple callers My experience at this particular casino is that during the regualar day/evening crowd, you will see more $20 pfr. but at 4am, people tend to be either pretty stuck or fairly up, tired, and much more willing to see flops for higher amounts.

Are you suggesting a smaller or larger pf raise amount?

flatty flat flat

An area I always struggle with, and would like to hear thoughts on, is how to actually analyze this situation. For example, if I believe V1 is ahead of me on the flop, then he must have at least two pair, and I am at best I am drawing to 2 As, and 3 Ks, if he has two pair with 97. If he has A9 or A7, then I'm down to the 3Ks, and maybe only 2 if I believe another V has a flush draw, thus eliminating the Kd as an out. Of course, if he has 99 or 77 I'm almost dead.

So if I believe he is ahead at all, then how do I decide to flat the 100 drawing so slim? Is it somehow related to the percentage I believe he is ahead vs the percentage I believe he is behind? Or if I believe he is mostly likely ahead, should I just fold? There are few turn cards that will improve my hand, so what exactly am I hoping for to "re-evaluate on the turn"? If the best case isthat he checks the turn, is that what I'm paying 100 to find out/hope for?

So I find on many hands I'm not sure how I should determine whether it's correct to see another card, given that if I'm behind, so few cards will help me. If I don't raise because I believe I am behind, then why am I calling? If I don't hit one of my 5 outs, and even those may not be live, am I folding to any bet on the turn? Isn't the most likely event that I will be facing the exact same situation on the turn, but now have an additional $100 invested?

Is there some math way to look at this to make a decision? Basically I mostly feel like I'm just guessing, either "he has it or he doesn't". But if he does, my odds are so low of getting ahead, wouldn't the chance of him "not having it" have to be very high to call on the flop?

Hope that makes sense. I find I just don't really understand the analysis I should be doing to make a decision.