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Raise or flat river? Raise or flat river?

09-15-2014 , 10:24 PM
1/3 Game

V1 limps UTG (younger kid, decent, but still the type to limp too much) with about $300

V2 limps in HJ (older fish type) with about $300 as well.

Hero on button raises to $15 with KQhh with $800.

Both Vs call.

J67hh flop. Check, check, Hero bets $22. Call, call.

K turn. $110 in pot. Check, check, I decide to check back (thoughts?)

Q river. $50, call, Hero?

If we raise, what's our sizing?

Last edited by teddyrowe9; 09-15-2014 at 10:35 PM.
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-15-2014 , 10:34 PM
Grunch.

Bet turn IMO. River is close... I mean T9 got there, and we were already losing to 66 and 88. How fishy are these guys? Are the going to just snap call with any two pair if you raise? Can they have hands like Q6 and K6? I also assume that they have combo's of QJ and KJ. I might min-raise or something. Fold if they ship it? Need more reads to make a better decisions IMO.
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-15-2014 , 10:38 PM
Q6 and K6 are in 2nd Vs range I'd imagine.

EDIT* - no 8 on flop, must have been a 7. I know T9 got there eventually, but I had eliminated that besides T9hh in game.
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-15-2014 , 10:47 PM
Turn I think you miss tons of value and allow all sorts of hands to potentially catch up. I don't think you need to bet huge some thing like half pot would do. When You hit ur flush you have a pot sized bet left and can get max value vs lower flushes etc.

When you check back turn I don't think I'm raising river but then again I'm not even sure who is betting the river. I have no clue if they are capable of paying is off with worse. I think the biggest mistake was checking the turn.
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-15-2014 , 10:51 PM
Checking turn there under reps your hand strength going to the river to me
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-16-2014 , 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
Turn I think you miss tons of value and allow all sorts of hands to potentially catch up. I don't think you need to bet huge some thing like half pot would do. When You hit ur flush you have a pot sized bet left and can get max value vs lower flushes etc.

When you check back turn I don't think I'm raising river but then again I'm not even sure who is betting the river. I have no clue if they are capable of paying is off with worse. I think the biggest mistake was checking the turn.
I guess the question is whether or not we gain more value from betting $55-60 on the turn or by undervaluing hand by checking back, then getting value on the river.

And I would somewhat disagree with saying I'm missing "tons of value." Bare Js will fold a lot of the time, lower FDs don't call 100% of the time. But I'm fine with this thread focusing more on the turn decision.
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-16-2014 , 12:20 PM
Fwiw I would lean toward checking turn. I don't know if I'm looking at it the right way but here is how I would approach it.

Among the possible hands out there:

Sets- by betting I am value-towning myself
Jx - I get more value otr by checking turn
Kx - prob get value by betting. I feel this is kind of unlikely based on action so far.
Flush draws - maybe slightly get more value by betting, which incents villain to call with low flushes otr. But it's close. Nothing wrong with taking the free card.
Straight draws - bet for value. And I think there are a lot of 89 type hands out there.

Adds up to somewhat more sentiment for checking in my mind. To me, the biggest question is, the likelihood of betting into a set. I really don't want to do that, and really don't mind taking the free card.

I feel v2 could easily be slow playing a monster. But I'll admit, maybe that's mubsy
Raise or flat river? Quote
09-16-2014 , 12:20 PM
After two limps I probably raise more to try and have a better chance at getting things HU (hopefully iso'ing the fish).

I love the small 1/2 PSB on the flop. We're basically hoping they've both just whiffed and can't continue, in which case we steal the pot for cheap (and we could be stealing from better Ax hands). Otherwise we give ourselves nice odds to draw if someone calls, and if someone check/raises they'll typically give us a good price.

I also check back the turn. We're not really afraid of the main flush draw, although I guess it's possible someone has the nut flush draw. I suppose there is a straight draw. But Jx hands might just give up (or just hit two pair), so we're cool with just having one more street go in. On this drawy board it's unlikely someone has a set / two pair (we'd expect a raise or a donk by now), but then again, you never know. Plus we don't want to be blown off our draw.

So on the river V1 donked $50 and got called by V2? If we're raising, the only raise is a shove since we only have a PSB left at this point. I think this is an interesting spot. A backdoor straight did get there (perhaps one with a flush draw). We're ahead of all two pair hands (KJ/QJ is a real possibility). You'd *think* we would have perhaps heard from sets on the flop. We showed weakness on the turn which means we get looked up lighter. I think I would shove here, with my guess being it's too nitty to just call (and this was my initial instinct, lol).

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