That's just how the Road to Pro can go, yo.

That's 20,000 live poker hours.

Closer to 24,000 but hey who's counting.

<-- Not this guy!

RtP, you realize that the all in EV calculation measures only a very small portion of the actual EV, don't you?

The positive red line tells the real story as to why he was losing.

Guise, he's a prodigy. Don't distract him.

That isn't a red line, it's the orange line for rakeback. No red/blue lines shown here.

I was going to post this but I'm color blind and was like **** it

Can someone explain to me what the graph means

Orange line, expected EV based on the equity he had when he got it all in.

Yellow line is how much rakeback he got.

Green line is how much money he actually made.

I should add that this runbad may look more impressive because of the stakes he plays. We don't know how big the discrepancy is in terms of BB/100.

Thx. It’s crazy that his Rakeback was negative at one point. That’s really running bad

https://youtu.be/Ycah1de5qxw?t=127

This is correct. Despite spending far too much of my time staring at my HM2 graph I somehow got it wrong before. I'm real dumb.

Lolololol

Lolololol

I didn't notice that and it is strange but the numbers on the top left I think say -$8,000 or so in rakeback.

yeah i dont get how rakeback can be negative but maybe it works differently at high stakes

sabr?

would it be rake of the rakeback or rackeback-back?

rakebacktrack

rake-trap

something with claw back

yeah, it’s true that variance presents itself in a plethora of ways. Some not quantifiable.

Its a mix of NL and plo and also some shot taking in there for context but it’s hard for a graph like that to be too misleading with the numbers attached to it as well.

My Takeaways for 25hands/hr poker.. feel free to correct me

tldr but I like to hear myself talk so...

1) Consistently offer/accept to run it twice so your results more accurately reflect expectation. It sucks to chop, especially when you get it in amazing, and that will happen a lot— but who cares? Who cares if all the numbers on the balance sheet are smaller? EV is the same and the above graph is far less likely to manifest itself in your own gamboolin journey. You’re more likely to know how good you’re actually getting it in etc.

2) play your A game, even if it sucks, almost always. Play the same when you’re winning and losing.

3) don’t reg plo

4) don’t reg tournaments

5) don’t take money outta that bankroll

6) don’t move up in stakes permanently until you’ve had a very long sample at your current stake

7) gotta get that volume in... week after week

8) get comfortable with losing

9) realize this is what you signed up for

10) Game select aggressively so that edge is bigger

probz hundreds of other things I dunno. some basic stuff I’m pretty sure but hey better to have those lightbulb moments early on anyways.

poor Veni can’t catch a break. a decade later he says he’s never had a year running way above expectation and was up a milli vs PG and went full Matt Ryan.

I appreciate the discussion. I think it will help all of us and maybe some of you will decide to fund your retirement/hookers and blow in the soul reading, mask infested, plexiglass streets so keeping on the up and up is always nice.

also anything to stop talking about blackmail and conspiracy to commit murder and extortion in here lol. Good vibes.

run good everyone... in life or in teh streets

Best advice for being a very successful poker pro is to build a time machine back to 2005

Aren't live winrates like 50x higher than online winrates?
It would be extremely hard to run this bad in live games not?

yah but you can only play one table of barely any hands..

people do stupid things for lots of moola when they’re drunk/tilted/tired/hangry I’ve heard so that’s cool tho

no discipline in the live streets

It would be extremely hard to run that bad but the above graph of one year of online play for a volume sicko represents an entire career for a live player.

so you wouldn’t need to run that bad imo before you googled the location of the nearest bridge at some point around the 325,000 hand mark.

We r totally cool. But:

you do spam

AND

you use a ton of spoilers unnecessarily which I and most likely most others do not bother opening cuz its usually a smiley face or a heart or some other spam type nonsense


Farha winning the interwebz again

Hopefully I don’t eat my words, but it’s hard to imagine me losing over 20 buy ins for live 2/5. People don’t tend to play a high variance style so it’s hard to lose a lot. It’s not only softer, but it’s a more passive game. Very little 3 betting and not enough bluff raising. The pots are super multi-way which increase the variance a bit though.

hmm isn’t playing a high variance aggressive strat (especially in unraked games) the best way to take advantage of all the bet/raise-folding all the grinders/OMC’s do in 2020?

Also seems like the most effective way to build a great, winning image.

Especially preflop and vs turn & river check raises etc. people seem to over fold way too much.

you can also counter exploit the meta when you think they view you as capable. Kind of like Garrett does and Dwan did on TV?