Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
Election night, i'll be watching for the east coast states: PA, FL (lol @ calling FL on election night), NC, GE, and OH. if 2 of these go for Biden, it's basically game over.
also interested to see Texas, which is on the verge of turning purple. if Texas ever turns blue for a period of time, Republicans might actually agree on removing the Electoral College. Dems would start most elections in the mid 200s, probably 2:1 starting positions in favor of Dems. their path to the presidency would be almost impossible to lose every cycle.
Since PA is doing a mail in ballots for the first time and they aren't counting them until polls close, early PA results will probably favor Trump whereas it may take a few days to get a proper tally and a more complete picture. Add in legal challenges aiming to prevent counting mail ballots favoring Biden and this means that if the election really boils down to PA, it might be a shitshow.
FL by contrast counts absentee ballots in advance so it's likely that by 9-10 pm we will have a full picture for the state. This means that regardless of who wins, we will have an idea of who's overperforming and underperforming their polls - although the diverse latino population of the state might behave differently than the blue collar whites in the crucial midwestern states.
I think GA and NC will also be out of the gate with results relatively early in the night.
Overall, we ve reached a point in which it's either an easy Biden win or a close one with a possible legal cluster**** in play. In one likely scenario, the winner is determined by 10 pm Tuesday, but in another likely scenario, the winner isn't determined for weeks.