Quote:
Originally Posted by bip!
Was talking in units of participation rate - which I believe was ~55% (?) last go round. Getting over 60% is a stretch IMO.
So yeah - wasn’t referencing past vote as denominator, was intending eligible
haven't seen 60% voter participation since 1968.
but we should look at 2008 (57.1%), which was a big push to
1) get everyone to vote
2) had specifically targeted POC to get out and vote more than probably any election prior to it
3) had a polarizing figure involved
if you look at what is going on in the world,
1) it kind of feels like with social media that more people are jumping on the #vote bandwagon every election cycle. does that mean it works, idk.
2) this is amped up a ton based on the climate of the country
3) this election easily has a most polarizing elected official in most peoples lives
Idk if 60% is out of the realm of possibility, but if it’s gonna happen, an election like this one is what would do it.
As for the 155MM:
if you look at the voting aged population (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_...tial_elections), the average increase in VAP is 5.9%, which would put the 2020 VAP in the 265MM range. to get to 155MM, Voter participation would only need to be 58.5%
i'm now starting to rethink that we wouldn't hit 155MM because I think voter participation will surpass 2008.
Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 10-21-2020 at 12:08 PM.