I don’t think there’s a debate to be had about the truly elite.

I was just saying he can run absolutely terrible and likely clear 7 figures annually. Based on playing with rich whales etc. Once again, he’s nerdy and aloof.

You know, given that $2,000,000 is a few buyins and he has an incredible edge.

This is in 2019/2020 as well.

LOL wat.

Not only is this possible, stuff like this is a statistical certainty if you play long enough. 700 hours is like 20K hands.

Fair enough. If your winrate is 15bb/hr which seems reasonable for one of the worlds best in a 5/10 live game (especially if deep) there’s only a 1.7% chance of this happening though over 20k hands. That’s less than 1/50 times.

It becomes “impossible” (0.012%) over the course of 60,000 hands.

More interesting though even if you are able to log just 700 hours in a $2000/4000/4000 with just a 5bb/hr winrate (you wouldn’t get invited back if it was much higher I’m assuming.. not only is the expected profit running neutral EV $14,000,000 but you’d have a winning stretch over 75% of the time.

I’m sure those guys like ARobl, Ike, Jkoon, Mikita, Jungle have been obsessed with poker for a very long time and just having loads of money wouldn’t help you win in those games, even long term.

Yeah my point was that statistically improbable things happen all the time.

I've never had a losing year but in my worst stretch I played 2000 hours at like a $20/hr winrate.

Agreed. I also think it's reasonable to say the guys above easily clearing 7 figures, even with conservative brm, running bad in these private games, are in the top .01% and people in the top .01% in most industries dwarf their earning potential. so it's not that great anyways.

but i do disagree with anyone thinks those guys and Galfond etc. wouldn't have been crushing high stakes if they came up in 2020 and don't think how they run really matters wrt if they last or not.

Some people just find a way to be better than the second best guy etc. regardless of how good the average pro is at a given time. Especially considering everyone's human. (welp live at least)

you have people like Matusow and Greenstein otoh who you or anyone else crushing rn is probably better than... despite them making millions at one point playing cash games. they definitely ran good and likely would not be crushing high stakes if they came up today.

Avoiding statistical improbabilities throughout one's career doesn't necessary equal running good either in the same way an athlete never having a major injury isn't lucky etc. imo

Man this is such a stupid spot I legitimately thought about folding.

$25/50. I open JJ UTG to $150. 3 calls.

Flop J62r (pot $625)

BB. Checks. I check. Two checks behind me.

Turn 5dd (pot $625)

BB leads $250. I raise to $800. Two folds. BB jams for $4000.

I know he has all 43 here and he isn't the type to semi-bluff this spot so I'm basically hoping he has a worse set but all my live reads were telling me this wasn't a set.

I obv paid him off. Stupid game.

do you think betting $160-220 otf is fine to induce raises with gutters etc. and floats from overs?

Are JJs and AAs your only value raises ott?

there is nobody in the world who can beat 5/10 for 15bb/hr who is playing 5/10 for 20k hands a year

Betting small is obv fine although in this case it wouldn't have made a difference. I usually check my top set on these boards. The pairs behind me that would call a small bet will often bet for protection anyway, and I really want to give KQ type hands a chance to hit a pair.

agreed! but truly elite players have truly elite winrates... thus making variance less of an issue.

Also it's a positive cycle in that truly elite players have better mental games and aren't going to quit like most until they are at the top etc. etc.

Also, all those guys are nerds except JKoon. So it's understandable for people to look down on them. Easier to root for people like Sam Trickett and say you need to be like him to get into those games etc. But it doesn't seem to be that way in reality.

Right, I assume AA and JJ's are your only check backs and they'll both want to raise off every turn, except a J, and then overbet most rivers?

You have to bet KK-QQ, AJ four ways I think right?

Result here is unfortunate smh.

A high winrate could mean that a lot of hands are going to showdown. That can put you into a very deep hole.

I don't think I check AA here. Slowplaying 4-ways with 1 pair just isn't that good.

My turn raise range here would be JJ, maybe like JTs if I think BB is leading weaker pairs, and a rare semi-bluff.

I've been playing super unbalanced in this game because it's soft.

I’ll believe they aren’t going to cancel the season when they actually start playing games. All this talk is just jerk off fodder for die hards.

i had 3 losing months in around 4.5/5 years of live poker

You’re talking in extremely broad terms about luck.

Of course not having a major injury as a professional athlete is lucky. Are you serious? It’s basically unlikely to not have a major injury in most sports at some point.

You aren’t thinking of luck as a two sided coin, but instead as a thing that only brings good fortune or expected fortune. Not experiencing negative outcomes or fortune is absolutely good luck in many different ways in life. Even if they’re unlikely negative outcomes.

I heard a story about Galfond where he would shot take against Ivey in nosebleed HU matches, with terrible BRM, because he knew that if he lost a buyin or two he could just drop down to 10-20K or whatever and just reup his bankroll until he felt like taking another shot.

Do you not see how that is massively different than now? Do you not see how that’s ridiculously lucky?

Also, it doesn’t impress me that an Ike Haxton could beat rich whales running under EV. I have full confidence I could beat Tony G, Paul Phua, etc. and I don’t have full confidence I could beat 500z on Stars. Do you see what I mean?

That’s a pretty awesome stat.
I don’t think I’ve had a 200-250 hour stretch of losing, but I still think it’s definitely possible if the doom switch is fully engaged.

I think I average 3 losing months a year, although it depends on volume. Once had 5 straight losing months (during the stretch I won $20/hr for 2000 hours).

Yes and no. I hate that line of thinking since basically everyone who’s ever accomplished anything has gotten lucky in hundreds of ways then lol. This is how you have hundreds of millions of people who end up becoming jealous and envious of other people’s successes. Since everyone who does better than them got lucky amirite. I believe some people are just destined for greatness despite their current or past situations.

The high win rate achieved through the soft games and mega high stakes are essential- but that will likely never go away, at least in some capacity. And if someone who barely talks and is a living rakebox, like Ike or Mikita can find a way to get into these games I’m not sure what’s so difficult about it. (I.e. the difficult part seems to be becoming a crusher and building a 7 figure roll through piker running nuetrally)

Also this may be controversial but just because someone like Dwan supposedly couldn’t crush 500z stars in 2020 that doesn’t really mean anything. Because the money is made live and if he were coming up today he’d likely make boatloads of money as well. He just had a better skillset than most other people interested in the game. you can’t say the same about some guy from Eastern Europe who plays GTO but could never, ever, pull the trigger on a $286k bluff, for example. Whoever plays the most optimal is a bad way to compare levels of players, in other words. imo.

Did you read Barry Greenstein's book yet?

Have not :/

but isn’t he the guy who thinks “math is idiotic” and hates “internet kids“

I don’t like the logic old school guys like him have. Too soul reader of an approach to everything for my liking

Man I hate greedy gold-diggers.

I ordered a shot a tequila, and tipped the waitress $10 when she brought it to me.

She straight up told me "come on I deserve more than that!"

How do you respond to this?

I told her, "alright I'll give you a choice. If you really want another $10 I'll give it to you, but I won't order more drinks from you from now on. Your choice."

She backed away. Man, the nerve.

She actually should have asked me for another $10 because I'm still not going to order from her as is.

Just because I've had 15 shots in 5 hours doesn't mean I'm easy like that. Dumb *****.

I would respond ‘why?’

I had something for this, about, the tip.

no