So according to Bart at Deuce plays, the fuzz rule states that when you get raised on the flop, your one pair hands are usually not ever good and if you don't fold you're making a -EV call. (That's the way I understand it anyway)
1/2 NL, effective stacks right around 100BBs.
I'm on the button with A
K
. 3 people limp, I make it $15 and get two callers.
Pot is $46, flop is:
A
T
6
.
I bet $27, one guy folds, guy in CO makes it $60. (CO is a 40ish guy who limps into a lot of pots, haven't seen him get too aggro all day. Since he's on my right and we were chatty and friendly he's shown me his cards a lot. He's been limping in with lots of suited gappers and connectors, some medium aces like AJ and ATsuited, and all small-medium pairs.)
What do I do here? The 'fuzz rule' says I should fold (I think). It's only $33 more though. My line of thinking was that if he had flopped a set, he would make this small raise. If he had a monster draw, he would 3x it or even larger. I never saw him do anything like this in the 3 hours or so he was next to me.
I can't help but think I'm beat here or up against a 13-17 out draw. I do have one
blocker. So I put him on: AT, A6suited, Ax
,TT, 66, QJ
, 98
78
79
. I stoved it when I got home and was surprised to see that I'm flipping against that range.
Tough spot for me. If I call (pot would be around $165). I've got about $125 left which I'm sure is going in on the turn whether a
comes or not. If the club does come, I have a redraw to a Khigh flush which may not be good anyway. So it feels like an all in or fold situation.