$1/2 7 handed

V is a dealer at another casino. Talking strat with his friend. On appearance, vibe, evesdropping along, I guess he is tight, probably a bit of a sissy postflop. $300

Hero 30´s white guy, basically just folded for my first couple of orbits. $500

V opens UTG $10 (slightly small sizing for this game), fish w. $400 CC´s, hero calls AJ OTB, blinds fold.

($30) flop: JT8

V bets $20, fish folds, hero calls

($70) turn: 5

V bets $30, hero raises to $75...

Is he the type to get MUBSY with overpairs when raised, or is he more like the "I haz overpair, shove" type?

If the former, I love this play, although calling is fine too - our IO for the flush are fine since its BD, and AK/AQ may still pay us off on an Ace river.

If the latter, I would just call, as he's likely going to jam and I don't like our equity against his likely b/3b shove range.

I'm in to it but only because V's turn sizing is so weak. Had he bet $50, I'd just call because we don't want to risk getting blown off our equity or having to call off knowing we have the worst of it.

Just call turn. Or if you're going to turn your hand into a semi-bluff, atleast make it $100. However, it looks really fishy since that turn is unlikely to have helped you and you would have raised sets/2 pair on a connected board like that.

If you have the intention of raising somewhere along the way, I would just raise OTF. It has the potential to make the hand easy to play. The OTF raise doesn't need to be as big as OTT to have the same effect.

AP, it seems you aren't bluffing, so you must be betting for value. It seems like there isn't a ton of value there.

Is this meant to be a bluff or a value bet?

I don't like it because I don't think it's very good as either.
Esp without reads.

With reads it could easily serve as either.
Although most times it's going to be a bit to small in absolute terms to work as a bluff unless we plan to follow it up with a healthy river bet.

Against weak spews opposition I like this sizing for value, although you could raise bigger ott.

Against mentioned V this seems unfitting and I dislike the raise. Call, get there and she him what real value sizing is.

Value. I think the bulk of his range is AQ,AK,KQ given his turn sizing. The small raise sizing is to get called by these hands which have horrible RIO vs me. If river is a K or Q I can cheerfully fold.

There are only 4 combos that are likely to blow me off my equity (JJ,TT).

This description does not fit in with your range analysis: AQ, KQ, AK will definitely not bet again and if he does then he certainly is not as nitty as you described.

Why not (a) 3! preflop, (b) raise the flop, or (c) raise more on the turn?

In my experience, dealers are quite conscious of the rake, and they are the exact opposite of grinders (they don't play to win small pots).

So this dude's range is super restricted from EP, probably 99+ and KQs+. The raise does serve as an informational raise, but much the same information could be gotten more cheaply OTF.

A raise OTF has an additional benefit; it may induce this particular player to check his entire range on the turn.

i don't like the bluff

If he has AK/AQ he's folding but that's fine since he's never putting any more in unless he binks or hits one of the remaining 2 Aces (so we lose 4% of one bet- case2 aces- and gain at least 14% of the current pot -kicker pairs and gssds- when he folds those) .

So folding those hands out is fine even profitable.

If he happens to have AJ we are free rolling and I guess occasionally even fold his chop.

Sizing seems to be mostly inconsistent with overpairs unless he is scared the flop hit us hard???? Even if that's the case he's rarely raising. Here we are value owning ourselves only very occasionally. But well more than 20% of the time we recover that bet when we bink flush or 2p/trips.

For same reasons I expect him to be betting sets harder here. If he pops us back it sucks that we might fold 18%ish equity. Subtract the redraws tho and even that just offsets the equity we gain by folding the AQ/AK hands so even though that's unlikely IMO let's call that a wash.

That leaves HIS draws that we get value from / fold his equity.

Edit:/ btw we also block 1 of the 2 Coolerish rivers (9c and Ac) that get our flush paid with a big bet vs his KQ.

Nice bet.

upon further thought, i actually like raise/folding here

what bluff? we have tptk + nfd... i like the raise, especially since his turn bet is so small. i have no intentions of folding if he 3bets us, although that wouldn't be ideal.

curious what happened next

i think the raise accomplishes something as a value raise, bluff, semi-bluff, and block bet

From some players, the small-ish bet can be quite strong because they only do it with monsters when they are afraid their opponent will fold to a bigger bet.

I'm not saying this player is actually strong because he could actually have a weak hand, maybe a blocking bet with a hand like 99, but it wouldn't shock me if this player calls, then checks and tank-calls the river before revealing that he had a set and was worried about being up against a straight.

PF is fine, wouldn't mind a 3-bet with AJo if we had a read that UTG's smallish sizing meant a weaker opening range, but AJs plays too well IP to turn into a bluff.

Flop is fine, turn seems kind of odd as it's tough for us to get value (given that V opened PF, bet flop, and bet turn, what hands are we targeting for value?) and probably too small for us to bluff out better hands even if V is weak-tight. Would just flat turn and play a river IP.

Basically just folded for the first couple of orbits.. And you're up $200?

Kookie plays in the good 1/2 games without the sissy cap.