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Old 12-28-2015, 11:54 AM   #1
teddyrowe9
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Quick sizing check:

V1 like his 5th hand at the table, already lost like $100, raised probably like 2 or 3 hands preflop already, including iso-ing limpers. I think he just busted from a $560 tournament that was going on at the time.

V2 limp/calls too much pre. seems to play pretty straight forward post flop.

Hero: Mid twenties. V2 would be the only one who has reads on me, but I'd be playing pretty snug, TAG style.

1/3 OTTH:

Few limpers including V2 ($400).

Hero ($600) has AK in the CO raises to $18.
V1 (~$250) in BB calls. V2 also calls.

Flop ($56) QT6

Checks through. (anyone like betting?)

Turn ($56) 3

V1 quickly bets $17. V2 calls. Hero calls.

River ($107) 2

V1 quickly bets $25. V2 calls quickly. Hero raises to $100?

If I click it back to $50 here, I think its optimistic to think I'll get called in both spots. I honestly think $100 is a higher EV sizing due to the fact that the most I can hope for is to get called by one V. What do y'all think?
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:14 PM   #2
fatmanonguitar
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Clicking it back is always the nuts and may actually be more likely to get folds.

I Cbet this flop. We have good equity and people fold a lot of marginal one pair hands on monotone boards. If you get called, even a hand like AQ or K(no club)Q will get nervous to a turn barrel.

The only downside is that we open ourselves to a potential c/r but most villain's suck at sizing so we can play accordingly.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:52 PM   #3
QuadJ
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Flop c-bet is a toss up multiway. You have decent equity but 3 ways generally somebody hit that flop and it wasn't you. You have a draw to the nuts but in a multiway pot you will have trouble getting paid after 4 to a flush hits.

In any case, raise turn. Against one villain who can be betting all kinds of weak hands calling to squeeze out a suck bet on the river is often good. With a bet and call on the turn your hoping one of them has two pair+ or a big flush and won't easily give up.

As played, I like the $100 on the river. You probably can't get more then one no matter what you bet.
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Old 12-28-2015, 06:49 PM   #4
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Im fine with checking flop, raise turn 110%. I raise river a bit more, lots of value to squeeze given how juicy this runout is.


edit: disagree with what fatman said. Our hand can't stand up to a check raise on this flop. cbetting is just looking for folds from 1 pair hands and if V1 is tiltcity he's shipping here with 1pair+club type hands maybe even just top pair.

If we get called we have to have a plan when turn bricks, maybe the flop bet buys us two streets and we can get turn to check through but I think that line is worse than AP.

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Last edited by Stupidbanana; 12-28-2015 at 06:58 PM.
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:30 PM   #5
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Against unknowns, I ck the flop to avoid getting c/r'd.
Against players I know, who would bet their top pair, 2 pair & sets, I'd bet $25. If they both call, I'd be getting 4:1 on my money with ~24% equity [if all of my outs are there]. I would have to have an aggressive player willing to bomb a c/r with the Kc to pass up on the bet.

If I get 2 calls, I'd ck the turn, since I don't think I have to worry about a set & 2 pair only has 4 outs. Hopefully one of the 2 will be holding the Kc or Jc. That way, otr, the one with the K/J flush will think I was tryin' to protect something with my flop bet, and, having missed out on their chance to c/r the turn, will now bet out otr. I'd then just min-raise.

V could take that many ways, but in the majority of cases, I find that they find it impossible to fold the 2nd or 3rd nut flush having such good pot odds. They don't like folding.

In your case, the size of your bet, IMO, would be based on what your Vs are going to think the $100 could rep. RU aggressive enough to bet that much with the Jc? Or even Tc. Or, are they willing to fold the Kc/Jc. If they're not willing to fold, and they won't believe you always have the Ac, then $100 will work vs. the Kc the majority of the time I think.

However, if you don't have that kinda' image, the definitely can't lay down to a min-raise with the pot odds they are getting if you bet smaller. I would get called, the majority of the time, if I bet $45 vs. the Jc I think. Maybe not more than 70% of the time, but often enough.

However, I just remembered the time I tried to 'steal' a pot otr when I caught my flush with 98s & someone bet small & was called & I bombed it & they both called...and......they both had a flush...........andmy 9 high flush won! But they didn't know me & I don't think I've seen them since. Not that I recall anyways.
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:36 PM   #6
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Re: Quick sizing check:

I am cbetting flop. Sucks when we get check/raised. But we get folds and win pot alot more often than check/raised.

When we get flatted we can easily pot control turn.

Bet $30
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:55 PM   #7
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Re: Quick sizing check:

WTF @ People saying we didn't hit that flop? That flop hit us right in the ******* with AK off. If you're going to play AK off that nitty just fold pre. It will be more +EV for you.

Are we really afraid of one pair and flush draws? I think we need some pokerstove ninja style in this thread.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:02 PM   #8
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Flop should definitely be a cbet. C/r won't happen very often and it doesn't matter as we have NFD, two overs and a gutshot.

There are only two other players in the hand and we're IP. There are plenty one pair hands V's will fold + lots of good turn cards for us. Our hand is a favourite against most one pair hands.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:08 PM   #9
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Quote:
Originally Posted by jambre View Post
Flop should definitely be a cbet. C/r won't happen very often and it doesn't matter as we have NFD, two overs and a gutshot.

There are only two other players in the hand and we're IP. There are plenty one pair hands V's will fold + lots of good turn cards for us.

Solid answer.

As played, with two villains still in and calling, I agree with you OP that $100 is a bit better than $50. It's +EV to bet about $100.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:42 PM   #10
Evoxgsr96
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Bet the flop especially IP wtf you are scared of getting x-raised so what???
More merits to betting flop then checking it IP and we prolly have the best hand vs. their ranges anyways?? Cant believe people are saying to check it wtf, that's a obvious blunder here?? Also we are sort of value betting here as well like i said above and building the pot up when we do hit our nut str8 or Flush.

No one even x-raise bluffs at LLSNL at 1/2 anyway and esp on this board. So we can peel flop and fold the turn given if we get good odds to. Most people are x-folding here, you have to consider their x-folding and x-calling ranges no one here is going to make a play and x-raise bluff you + you hold the Ace of clubs.

What happens if the flop x's through and then you get bet into OTT on a blank? Just call and fold rivers (your not getting paid if you hit)? Raise the turn? Yeah but all the value hands you would raise the turn with would bet the flop, even though opp. is capped here as well. If you are a true TAG you should be betting this to be balanced otherwise you are just a fit-or-fold player and people will pick up on the fact that you just play draws passively making you easier to play against.


If you get 2 callers then i'd check the turn, but if only 1 caller i'd fire all 3 streets HARD the only nutted hands in his x-call range would be made flushs that he is "slowplaying". We have a ton of outs keep that in mind.

Sorry it's not even that big of a mistake, im just tilted at the replies omg im going to get x-raised.

Last edited by Evoxgsr96; 12-28-2015 at 10:00 PM.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:57 PM   #11
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Re: Quick sizing check:

^^ this was good until you said the only thing in Vs x/c range is a made flush, you lost all credit there. One V calls and the runout goes blank blank for us while Qx, J9, Tx, KJ hands improve? GL betting that 'HARD' with A high.

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Old 12-28-2015, 10:11 PM   #12
teddyrowe9
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Yeah, I like the discussion regarding flop. As indicated in my OP, I am very open to the idea of betting the flop. V1 was the wildcard, as I had only 4-5 hands of history versus him..and his sizing from those hands was competent, thus any C/R sizing wouldn't be terrible on his part.

I'm a little surprised by people saying raise turn...I feel like value lost from the times it folds around and I miss out on river bets > value the times I get called on turn and river.
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Old 12-28-2015, 10:15 PM   #13
teddyrowe9
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Evoxgsr96 View Post
What happens if the flop x's through and then you get bet into OTT on a blank? Just call and fold rivers (your not getting paid if you hit)?
I mean, not getting paid when we hit is a pretty big assumption, honestly. But I don't think that is a terrible plan really. I think the same pairs that would fold to a c-bet on the flop won't bet turns unimproved, and will fold to a delayed c-bet on the turn.
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Old 12-28-2015, 10:15 PM   #14
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Quote:
Originally Posted by whickerda View Post
Are we really afraid of one pair and flush draws? I think we need some pokerstove ninja style in this thread.
Is hero afraid of pair+draw? No, hero is slightly ahead of all of those hands anyways because hero has the flush, straight and two over cards. The problem with being check/raised is that hero is either slightly ahead (pair+draw) or significantly behind (sets/QT/flushes). The only exception would be KcJo which V1 might check/shove if tilted. There are more hands hero is slightly ahead of and money already in the pot, so hero will be stuck going with it when EV is going to be marginal. The check/raise is rare enough that it isn't a big problem though.

The real problem comes when hero bets flop and whiffs the turn. Suddenly hero's equity doesn't look so good and nobody will give him credit on the river if another brick comes in. This is a good board for pair+draw to station hero off. Worse, AQ+ might check/call flop and then bet any non-club turn.
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Old 12-28-2015, 10:35 PM   #15
ZuneIt
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Quote:
Originally Posted by teddyrowe9 View Post
Yeah, I like the discussion regarding flop. As indicated in my OP, I am very open to the idea of betting the flop. V1 was the wildcard, as I had only 4-5 hands of history versus him..and his sizing from those hands was competent, thus any C/R sizing wouldn't be terrible on his part.

I'm a little surprised by people saying raise turn...I feel like value lost from the times it folds around and I miss out on river bets > value the times I get called on turn and river.
Agree. As the game played out, let them think you're chasing, hoping to fill your 2 pair, or praying your J/T hi flush is good. However, if your turn raise is a click, what are they going to think? I don't think the J/K hi flush is folding and you get more $$ on the river........maybe?
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Old 12-29-2015, 01:08 PM   #16
mikko
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana View Post
^^ this was good until you said the only thing in Vs x/c range is a made flush, you lost all credit there. One V calls and the runout goes blank blank for us while Qx, J9, Tx, KJ hands improve? GL betting that 'HARD' with A high.

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What other hands are you check/raising?

Check/raise here is like 95%made flushes

Miss read your post. It was ch/c

Last edited by mikko; 12-29-2015 at 01:26 PM.
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Old 12-29-2015, 03:01 PM   #17
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Re: Quick sizing check:

Bet the flop

Flatting the turn is the biggest loss of value I see here.
Making at least some sort of raise, gets value from the broadway high flushes, whilst ALSO getting value from two pair and sets.

As played- you let the villains set their price, time to just bomb the river like you MIGHT be bluffing. Raise to $150

or bet $70 and hope to get called by stubborn flushes
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