We are playing short handed (5 of us ATM).

Hero is OTB (Covers). The people in this game think that hero is an OK player. As tight as I play they will not hesitate to call me down light because I am capable of bluffs, just not at the % they think I am bluffing. TBH though, I think a lot of what they do is because they think they are better than they really are and can justify their calls because of how they think about themselves. Earlier in the night (10 handed play) I had been playing pretty taggy with some limps or calls from time to time in order to get into pots with some of these guys and play post without blowing up the pot. More raises IP (or OOP with premiums) than limps though.

V1 BB (250bb) Takes very awkward lines that are mostly tight/passive/FPS. He will make mistakes and chase down draws for the wrong price. I heard he has deeper pockets because of his profession. For the most part though he is tight passive and if he is raising prF I am generally folding. If he is putting money into the pot I am generally folding. I think people think he splashes more than he does.

V2 UTG (220bb) I think he is a ton more loose passive than he is tight aggressive, but I think he thinks he is a TAG. He will calls raises or limp along with a bunch of garbage hands. When he loses with those hands he will chalk it up to variance. When he does raise pre his range is typically tighter. He knows all the maths (always table talking them), but really does not understand variance. He misuses a bunch of terms, but thinks he is right. In this game he is probably a slight loser or break even, but he'd probably tell you different. This one really likes calling hero down and bluff catching. When he is the one doing the betting he is generally strong. Not saying he bets nutted hands, just that I don't think he has too many bluffs in his hand when he is the aggressor.

V2 UTG limps (1bb)
random folds
Hero OTB raises QTss (4bb)
SB folds (.5bb)
V1 calls (3bb)
V2 calls (3bb)

Flop (12.5bb)

J 3 9

V1 and V2 checks
Hero bets (8bb)
V1 folds
V2 calls (8bb)

Turn (28.5bb)

K

V2 checks
Hero bets (22bb)
V2 calls (22bb)

River (72.5bb)

6

V2 checks
Hero bets (36bb)


I think my river bet is too small. In the heat of the moment I was going to grab 45-50bb and then scaled it back because it was hard to put him on a strong hand. My thinking was if he has a bluff catcher here (which I thought he had more often than not) my bet was to induce a hero call (thin value, w/e you want to call it). No I am not betting to induce a c/r and as much as he likes to bluff catch me I don't think he is non-nitty enough to call any huge bets (like over bets).

oh lol yea that changes everything.

I think river bet is fine, based on the action I would say the vast majority of his range is 1-pair type hands and very occasionally 2-pair, so I don't mind going for a smaller sucker bet.

Ha, turn is fine and I bet like 45xbb OTR but 32xbb is fine since most of his range is like QJ/JT hands

"This one really likes calling hero down and bluff catching."

What you're saying is this guy is kind of a station vs. you AND you have an image of bluffing at a higher frequency than actual, but you're only betting half pot on this river?

Yeah, it's a mistake, IMO. Bet bigger, look bluffier, get called.

Once he calls that turn, he's probably setting himself up to call a blank river, too (with the exception of draws, which fold to any bet).

bet larger on the river...possibly even an pot/overbet if he thinks you can have missed clubs

yeah, I don't think he is non-nitty enough to call pot size/overbets. He can be mubsy at times and I think bigger bets make him think mubsier. I do think a bigger bet is needed here though. 36bb is like the minimum I should be betting OTR. I think I could be squeezing up to 15 more bb's here and I missed it.

I think that the most likely made hand he's calling you down with is Jx that doesn't believe you have a king. So if a bigger river bet would blow Jx off the hand, but your bet size keeps him in, then I like your sizing. Otherwise I agree with everyone else that you should have bet bigger.

Why are you betting the flop?

What one pair hand is he calling 3 streets with though? If he flopped TP obviously he calls flop and I understand calling the barrel ott but I think it's hard for him to call even half pot on the river. Could be something like Kx, it wouldn't be unreasonable for V2 as described not to raise turn, but there's only a few combos.

I just don't think villain has much of a range that is calling a small river bet but not a larger one, whereas it's hard to imagine him letting go of some random 2 pair.

e: Ok I missed the part where he likes calling you down. Bluffcatching is one thing but bluffcatching three barrels is pretty extreme. Still I think in that case you can go a bit above half pot.

Did you see how deep we are? Plus this is the same line I would take with made hands, air, and ldo my semi bluffs.

What is the standard opening size in this game? In my game, it is 4bb so I am going to raise 5bb pf if there is one limper already in the pot.

I would bet pot on the flop, pot on the turn, and then try to decide how much V will call on the river, but we will have about a PSB left to work with. I think if he is calling 8bb on the flop, then he is calling 12.5bb as well if that makes sense.

I am not sure if I am going to shove on the river, but I think is he much more likely to call a PSB.

LOL... It's all over the damn place. 2-12x ... seriously.

The prF size really isn't that bad IMO. When the game is short like this, or I am against a bunch of passive players, I like to keep the pot smaller and in control rather than bloating the crap out of it. I can steal more post and outplay my opponents way more often. 5bb would not have been bad, but I really don't care for anything higher than that. It's not like we are always going to turn the nuts. I feel like I can play better because I dictate the action and it's very in control by raising that amount is basically what I am saying, and TBH when I played 6M online that would have been a pretty standard raise from me (and most others).

I think on the river I'd bet something similar (as a % of pot) to what I bet on the turn.

Going to stay away from commenting in this hand for the following reasons:

1. It's short-handed, which creates different dynamic for most FR players, both consciously and subconsciously.

2. Sounds like the game has already been going on for a while, and the dynamic also varies quite a bit at this point without detail backdrop of what transpired.

Bottom line: high variance discussion for this hand.

Yea, I think the pfr size is ok. But I think, with our equity, I would have bet more on the flop and turn to try to setup a river shove and force our opponent into making mistake because the pot has become so big.

With the way you played it, the pot was 73bb on the river with V having 186 bb behind. If you bet pot, then it becomes 113bb on the river with V having 156bb behind. I think my math is right on that.

1. I often wonder about this. When I started taking online more serious all I played was 6M and learned a ton about the game. So I think I may see some things differently than others in situations like this, but I don't think you should stray away from the conversation because one can still learn a thing or two.

2. Any dynamic has been pretty much described in the v descriptions. I have played a lot with these guys in the past couple of months and my descriptions are pretty accurate.

Bottom line: Quit being a nit and give your input on the hand!

Pot size and Stack Size OTR

AP:


V: 220bb 4 - 8 - 22 = (186bb) pot size 72.5bb

If pot bets

V: 220bb 4 - 12 - 36 = (168bb) pot size 108.5bb

You are going to make me double check my math now.

Pot bets:
PF: 12.5
F: 12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 = 37.5
T: 37.5 + 37.5 + 37.5 = 112.5

V: 220 - 4 - 12.5 - 37.5 = 166

I just fixed it... I'm trying to quadruple task ova here!

I took out the .5 on my bets though

Right. So that is why I would escalate my bets more against this type of opponent. He knows the maths but since he tends to grow a fishtail, he is not going to fold for just a few more bb. I think he is hero-calling a shove with KJ/K9 and folding out his missed draws (no matter what our size).

For sure.... but AP he is saying that the strength of his hand is 1pr more often than not. It's great if we can run into a 2pr hand, but if he has 2pr right here it's more of a shock than anything. We have to make a plan for his 1pr hands that are going to show up here more often than 2pr. Pot pot pot/shove river sounds fantastic on paper, but I don't think it takes into consideration the way he played the hand and what his most likely holding is. And I did say in the OP that he is just nitty enough to not call huge bets OTR.

What hands does he show up here with just top pair other than KQ? I know he plays garbage, but do you think he calls the flop bet with K3s? Once he calls the flop bet, a J is a large part of his range, not a K. I would say his range is AJ*/KJ/OJ/JT/J8/KQ*/A9/K8/Q9/random clubs like 78/76/75 etc

* - does he open those hands pf utg?

Once he calls the turn bet I think he shows up with two pair or KQ or the random clubs. I think the only part of his range that he is calling a 1/2 size pot bet with is KQ and maybe one of the J hands if he thinks you are full of it.

Kxcc, KQ, KT, Random Kx floats for w/e reason (non-believers like to float), A9, Q9, Jx... and anything I missed on yours. In short handed play he should be opening a large portion of those if not all of them, but will he is another story. "A loose passive guy who thinks he is a TAG." These guys generally do a bunch of limping and when they hit a hand they feel they played it optimally.

You have described like the most awesomest spots in the history of awesome spots to overbet.

Start doing it more, you will be astonished at how light you get called. Villain description here makes an overbet mandatory imo.

I think you sized well otf and ott, slightly overbet river. Something I've realized is potting can be scary, but overbetting gets called lighter. Like there is some kind of inverse relationship, up to a point anyway, with how much you overbet and how light you get called...from certain villains.

Super LOL at 11t's first post, what a nit!

An over pot sized bet looks bluffy, and could level this kind of villian into calling.

I'm with Richard Parker. There's really no way to know if villain would perceive an overbet as bluffier or scarier. Also, it's just simple math as far as how often villain needs to call X vs how often he needs to call Y for one to be more profitable etc.

Also, psychologic meta of a 5 handed game, images blah blah

Basically, well played, river is whatever.