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Old 02-16-2014, 11:54 PM   #1
iraisetoomuch
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QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Table:
Sunday evening. Around 5:30 or so. 1/2 nl. Most of the table is pretty passive. There are 3 people being some what aggressive pre flop, my self included. Some decent sized pots going around. Pre flop raises of $12-$15 are sometimes getting 4 callers, sometimes 0. Hard to tell.


Hero: I started off the day a little bit spewy. First hand at the table (the table was brand new) I raised the button to $15 over 4 limpers with KQs
(didn't show), got 3 callers, flop was A high I cBet after everyone checked and V1 ck raised me for 2.5x my cBet, and I folded. I raised a few more pots that I had to give up on as I didn't get my sizing right and got more caller than I expected. After that I proceeded to dust of $150 making a few bad calls. I stayed topped off during the whole time with green chips, but I'm not sure if anyone noticed. After that I picked up a few good sized pots: Raised with AQs flopped a flush draw and gii otf w/ 2 overs and nfd vs an OP and won. Also stacked 2 players ai pf with AA vs KK & QJo. So now I'm up quite a bit. $650

Villain: He's a regular at the casino. Normally pretty aggressive pre flop. Straddles all of his buttons, raises 40% of them, raises a lot from LP. Doesn't raise his draws, but that's irrelevant here. Not afraid to put money in the pot. He ck/raised me earlier in the day, and he's done it a number of other times in the past. I've never called one of his ck/raises as I've never had a hand to do it with, but just based on sheer number I feel he can't always have it. Won a few small pots today, but nothing special. His biggest win was the ~$125 pot that he won on the first hand against me and the field. Decent player overall. Not a total spew box, but I wouldn't call him solid by any means. ~$425

All other V's in the hand are pretty irrelevant. They are all super face up with their cards. And would have bet if they hit the flop.

Hand:
3 limps including V who is in the CO
Hero raises to $15 with QT
4 people call including V

Flop: ($75) KK2
4 checks
Hero bets $30
all others fold
V raises to $70
Hero calls

I felt V could do this with any PP, and K that he saw the flop with, and of course the dreaded 22. My plan is to raise most, if not all turn cards if bet to to rep a strong King, and bet all turn cards if checked to. V is decent enough to understand what I'm repping if I flat and raise the turn. Whether he believes it or not is a different notion.

Turn: ($215) 9
V leads $75
Hero raises to $175

V has about $245 left after his bet, so he should feel like he has no FE if he jams so I should never get bluff jammed on. Also, I feel this folds out all of his PP's which should make up a decent portion of his range. How's the logic all around, and the sizing?
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:07 AM   #2
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

puke.gif

Really awful spew. My thinking about bluffs is coming around to that you need some level of equity in the hand, which means some sort of draw. Even if it is a runner-runner 3 card straight, it is at least something. You have nothing here. I'm OK with the raise with QTo pf (not great, but not horrible) and the cbet, but as soon as he raises you on the flop, I'm done. You can't even beat his bluffing range.

Calling is just the worst option. A raise would be better on the flop (guess what sucker, I really do have AK). The raise on the turn represents nothing.
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:11 AM   #3
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Flop is 5 ways?

x/f flop. x/f turn. x/f river.
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:13 AM   #4
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
puke.gif

Really awful spew. My thinking about bluffs is coming around to that you need some level of equity in the hand, which means some sort of draw. Even if it is a runner-runner 3 card straight, it is at least something. You have nothing here. I'm OK with the raise with QTo pf (not great, but not horrible) and the cbet, but as soon as he raises you on the flop, I'm done. You can't even beat his bluffing range.

Calling is just the worst option. A raise would be better on the flop (guess what sucker, I really do have AK). The raise on the turn represents nothing.
Fwiw: I do have a backdoor straight draw here, but whatever.

I'm not going to say that you're wrong and that my play is a gift from god or anything that moronic: but as I was playing the hand I was thinking 'what I would do here if I had AK?'
And if I had AK here I likely wouldn't 3bet the flop. I would flat, look to get another bet from him on the turn, then raise the turn to guarantee that stacks can get in by the river. Much as I did here.

Is that line (with AK) a leak?
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:41 AM   #5
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Fwiw: I do have a backdoor straight draw here, but whatever.

I'm not going to say that you're wrong and that my play is a gift from god or anything that moronic: but as I was playing the hand I was thinking 'what I would do here if I had AK?'
And if I had AK here I likely wouldn't 3bet the flop. I would flat, look to get another bet from him on the turn, then raise the turn to guarantee that stacks can get in by the river. Much as I did here.

Is that line (with AK) a leak?
You need to hit a 4 outer twice. That's different that hitting an 8 outer to hit another 8 outer. You're 4 times more likely to hit the double 8 outer.

If your opponent isn't thinking, he doesn't realize what you're trying to represent. He's only thinking about what he has. If he is, he's wondering why you bet 30 on the flop. It is a terrible bet and represents what you have, a ****ty hand. AK is going to trap or try to get Kx to put a lot of money in the pot. Either way, you don't have AK.
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:52 AM   #6
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

LOL at the notion that a back-door straight is worth anything here.

Look at the cards you need to create your BDSD: You need a J and either an A or a 9.

Hmmm.... what KX hands limp/call pre? KJ? K9s?

So not only do you have to hit your 4 outer * 4 outer (which is roughly .08 * .08 ~= 0.007), but you have to worry about pitching your stack into villain who might have boated up.

But hey... it is true, you do have a back-door straight draw.
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:59 AM   #7
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

limp preflop

don't cbet flop

definitely don't call the raise with q hi

it's not like you're losing some huge amount of value if you fold Q hi in this pot to villain's "play", but you can certainly donate a huge amount of value to his value hands..
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Old 02-17-2014, 09:28 AM   #8
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Well the hand was spew according to two people's who opinion I respect.
That's fine, ok thanks.


Moving on: At the time I wasn't playing the hand for any sort of straight draw. That wasn't part of the thought process. But venice mentioned he wanted to have some sort of backup equity, and I simply wanted to point out that it exists.

You in fact can hit a 12 outter on the turn to continue with your bdsd here. Any A, any J any 9. At which point you either have 4 outs to hit your hand, or 8 outs to hit your hand (if you hit the J). Not that it matters, but just that I think it's important to be correct with our odds.

So, 17% of the time you will turn a 8.6% draw and 8.5% of the time you will turn a 17.3% draw (2.93%). 3.96x better than a 4 out draw twice (.74%).

I don't mind being told that the hand is spew, that's fine. I thought it was pretty possible when I played it, just want to make sure that people respond with the correct number so that we are not giving out false information.
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Old 02-17-2014, 09:52 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ggnoobs View Post
limp preflop

No.

don't cbet flop

No.

definitely don't call the raise with q hi

Yes.


Also if we need to have this discussion about hitting backdoor straights - doesnt that just pretty much point to a fold because we are so beat that hitting a T or Q isnt even an option?

OP, i get what you are trying to do, but that hand on that board isnt the best spot to do it at. From my own spewy bluff days i can honestly say bluffing without realistic outs (like even over cards at least) is burning money.
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:01 AM   #10
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

it's like precisely counting the change on the floor of your car to ascertain that there isn't enough money there to buy a 60" TV

look..

you're pretty sure he's full of it. well, what if he's also pretty sure that YOU'RE full of it? what's going to happen to you with Q hi?

just give people a little more credit. if you're making plays like this even once a session, it's destroying your bottom line.

Last edited by ggnoobs; 02-17-2014 at 10:08 AM.
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:21 AM   #11
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
limp preflop, no
why not?

raising is kind of bad.. you don't have fold eq pre, and you need a stronger hand to raise against limpers

folding is fine, but if you're not folding, the only play left is to call.

i know you guys have this religious opposition to limping as if it instantly turns you into a fish, but you aren't a fish if you play well postflop
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:24 AM   #12
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Well the hand was spew according to two people's who opinion I respect.
That's fine, ok thanks.


Moving on: At the time I wasn't playing the hand for any sort of straight draw. That wasn't part of the thought process. But venice mentioned he wanted to have some sort of backup equity, and I simply wanted to point out that it exists.

You in fact can hit a 12 outter on the turn to continue with your bdsd here. Any A, any J any 9. At which point you either have 4 outs to hit your hand, or 8 outs to hit your hand (if you hit the J). Not that it matters, but just that I think it's important to be correct with our odds.

So, 17% of the time you will turn a 8.6% draw and 8.5% of the time you will turn a 17.3% draw (2.93%). 3.96x better than a 4 out draw twice (.74%).

I don't mind being told that the hand is spew, that's fine. I thought it was pretty possible when I played it, just want to make sure that people respond with the correct number so that we are not giving out false information.
No.

First of all, since any 1 of the A, J or 9 do not complete your made hand individually, you cannot count all of them as outs at the same time. So you should not consider them in the way you are -- "12 outs to continue"

Let's say you hit an A on the turn. Now you need a J. 4 outs on the river.

Let's say you hit a 9 on the turn. Now you need a J. 4 outs on the river.

So its 8 outs on the turn to pick up a 4 out draw on the river.

But this is the less advantageous scenario.

Because of timing, you want to hit the 4 out J on the turn so that you can have 8 outs on the river.

Poker is not "associative" in the way we deal with outs as a shorthand for deciding our action. You have to take the decisions as they come.

So you really want to hit your 4 out J draw on the turn, so that you have more outs going into the river when the pot is bigger (or that you might have to call a big bet on the turn).

ETA: regardless, we will eventually need the J anyway, so whether we get it on the turn or the river, its 4 outs somewhere. Nowhere in this HH is there enough dead $$$ in the pot to justify it.
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:28 AM   #13
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

The problem is, your cbet here lacks credibility. Aggressive players stab at paired boards all the time. That makes a bluff c/r a good play at times. Maybe you're thinking "hey that's what I would do." Problem is, if you're gonna call the c/r, better plan on calling the turn bet, too. That gets expensive.

I lost hundreds of dollars on this exact scenario the last time I quit poker and vowed to never play this game again ever. Of course the dude had the set.

At the time I thought the lesson was, don't call check raises at low limit. Although maybe the lesson should have been, I'm cbetting too much.

It doesn't take a genius to notice that, or to counter it. The whole check raise thing is aggravating but fortunately it's not an optimal adjustment because it lets the aggressor off the hook to cheaply.

So I guess the bottom line is, don't forget to go through the cbet checklist. And don't forget that habitual check-raisers are exploitable. Easily exploitable if you think about it.
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:33 AM   #14
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Quote:
Originally Posted by ggnoobs View Post
why not?

raising is kind of bad.. you don't have fold eq pre, and you need a stronger hand to raise against limpers

folding is fine, but if you're not folding, the only play left is to call.

i know you guys have this religious opposition to limping as if it instantly turns you into a fish, but you aren't a fish if you play well postflop
LOL... I'm probably the only public anti-limping nit here. Many other contributors to this forum (all are likely better players then me) are much more inclined to limp in late position.

In this hand, I would certainly not be limping QTo from the button.

The simplest way I can put it is that QTo is not likely to flop well enough to cooler someone. And even though we all think we're always the best player at the table, it is extremely hard to play limped pots profitably. It is much harder then most players will admit.

I think Hero's preflop action was good.
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:37 AM   #15
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

iraisetoomuch, it looks like you've already received the required feedback. I don't mind what you're trying to do and as an above posted mentioned you're just trying to do it in the wrong spot/ on the wrong board. It's entirely likely he does have a K here, or a decent pocket pair that he wants to hold on to. This just isn't a good spot to try to play back at him. For your sake i hope it worked but consider this a learning lesson that this type of fancy play is just spew and will destroy your win rate.
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Old 02-17-2014, 10:40 AM   #16
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Quote:
Originally Posted by ggnoobs View Post
why not?

raising is kind of bad.. you don't have fold eq pre, and you need a stronger hand to raise against limpers

folding is fine, but if you're not folding, the only play left is to call.

i know you guys have this religious opposition to limping as if it instantly turns you into a fish, but you aren't a fish if you play well postflop
For qto in position fold >> raise >>>>>>>>>>call.

It's not a belief without basis. There are a ton of reasons why limping there is bad. For one, you are basically playing fit or fold poker. You flop the nuts? Great, now you made $6, which happens for every $40 of your limps.

Also re fold equity - you arent trying to make everyone fold. in fact i raise and look for 1-2 specific callers
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Old 02-17-2014, 04:38 PM   #17
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Re: QTo on a paired board, I think this guy is playing back at me! Line check please

Nothing wrong with overlimping here.
QT fits perfectly into a good player's overlimping range in late position. Its not good enough to raise over multiple limpers, but it is good enough to call

As played i think the flop cbet was fine. Could argue for a check as well but whatevers.

Now when he xraises you honestly are repping a strong hand by floating him and then raising the turn, but is this guy even capable of hand reading? I wouldnt try this play unless the guy was a good player who hand reads well but x/raise bluffs dry boards too much.

Sounds like he xraise bluffs too much, but is he a good player? Otherwise he wont understand what you are trying to rep
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